ATL: TROPICAL STORM BILL (03L)

[bob rulz]

That convection near the center is still too disorganized. I say that it won't be upgraded until 11am at the earliest...although it could be 5am if it pulls itself together more rapidly.

[jinftl]

great....staying weak means further west.....when it does develop.....the best thing that could happen now is a fast spin-up that is more influenced by troughs.....not good news in the big scheme of things....she's coming.....i think you know that but are playing us....it's friday, so good for you!

OO UTC says no td yet. See what I mean?

[cycloneye]

The 00 UTC BAMS have it moving west at 270 degrees at 16kts.

[jlauderdal]

The 00 UTC BAMS have it moving west at 270 degrees at 16kts.

that is making a beeline W, little fast for those people that want a major

[Sanibel]

Models runs that show landfalls closest to where one lives are the ones given the most credence...thankfully we have the nhc to steer us right.

LOL


It would be hysterical if someone posted a model chart with models like the SNBL (Sanibel) showing it going to the west coast of Florida or the TEXAS model showing it bee-lining to Texas etc etc.

[Derek Ortt]

The 00 UTC BAMS have it moving west at 270 degrees at 16kts.

that is making a beeline W, little fast for those people that want a major

the forward speed is no hinderance on development. However, what could be is if TD 2 blows up more than expected. Of course, there are other problems if that happens...

[Brent]

OO UTC says no td yet. See what I mean?

It's only a matter of time. This is the most obvious storm I've seen in a long time. It continues to organize and will definitely be a TD by tomorrow sometime IMO.

[Aric Dunn]

its very likely that a more defined center is taking shape close that convection that is firing near 12N .. next hour or so will be interesting to see what happens with that..

[sunnyday]

I don't really mean to be playing anyone about this. I just hope for the best that it doesn't develop into a destructive storm on anyone's doorstep.

[cycloneye]

Impressive.

[jlauderdal]

How many times has the GFS clipped the keys and slammed NO with 90L so far lol? It's crazy!

we have been in the bulls eye so many times i prefer that 5+ days out because how many times has it worked out. How about that big bad Ike last year that was coming here.

IMO, we dodged a major bullet with Ike last year and its irregular track veering SW into Cuba. All sane logic had it coming right here as a powerful storm. Of course, much of last year defied "sane logic".

I have NO basis for this statement beyond personal opinion and experience but...... I venture to guess that about 9 out of 10 times a storm DOES NOT take the irregular course that Ike took. We can count our blessings here in South Florida on that one!

Sorry to my friends in Texas on how Ike turned out.

that was as irregular as the residents of century village, it went WSW for a very long time, one of these days is all i can see, we have been on track many times the last five years, ike and debby come to mind as close in and dead on hits that didn't happen

[chris_fit]

Impressive.

Reminds me of Deep Impact and the little and big meteor.

[Sanibel]

Which is why this year you should worry that the CV long-track pattern is still there without any south dip like Ike took .

[jinftl]

a huge potential unknown in terms of track and intensity....what if 92L reforms and intensifies? That could throw everything up in the air.

[cycloneye]

a huge potential unknown in terms of track and intensity....what if 92L reforms and intensifies? That could throw everything up in the air.

Explain more please about the throwing in the air part.

[Gustywind]

00 UTC Bam Models

Moving west at 16kts.

WHXX01 KWBC 150046
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0046 UTC SAT AUG 15 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL902009) 20090815 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090815 0000 090815 1200 090816 0000 090816 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.5N 30.5W 12.7N 33.8W 13.0N 37.5W 12.7N 41.6W
BAMD 12.5N 30.5W 12.7N 33.4W 12.9N 36.7W 13.1N 40.5W
BAMM 12.5N 30.5W 12.7N 33.6W 12.9N 37.1W 12.9N 41.0W
LBAR 12.5N 30.5W 12.6N 34.0W 13.0N 38.1W 13.4N 42.5W
SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 40KTS 52KTS
DSHP 25KTS 30KTS 40KTS 52KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090817 0000 090818 0000 090819 0000 090820 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.4N 45.4W 12.2N 51.0W 14.3N 55.3W 17.9N 61.9W
BAMD 13.4N 44.4W 13.6N 51.7W 13.7N 57.2W 15.5N 61.5W
BAMM 12.9N 44.8W 12.8N 51.1W 14.1N 55.5W 17.3N 60.8W
LBAR 14.2N 47.1W 14.7N 55.4W 14.8N 56.2W .0N .0W
SHIP 62KTS 83KTS 93KTS 96KTS
DSHP 62KTS 83KTS 93KTS 96KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.5N LONCUR = 30.5W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 16KT
LATM12 = 12.2N LONM12 = 26.8W DIRM12 = 281DEG SPDM12 = 18KT
LATM24 = 11.6N LONM24 = 24.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

Drifting west...

[boca]

I was on vacation in California for 2 weeks and everything seems to be popping now.

[sunnyday]

Has what was td2 been upgraded to a higher chance of becoming a storm? I just saw that it was shown in red now on the NHC site ( just as invest 90 is shown in red) .

[Derek Ortt]

notice the deep BAM. It is the farthest west

strong may mean farther south and west

[jinftl]

My knowledge of the interaction of 2 tropical systems is very limited....but i have heard of situations where 2 nearby storms can cause one to veer off.....as if approaching a trough....or cause one to weaken as they both fight for the same energy.

I guess i pose this question...more than have an answer...could a developing 92L cause 90L to turn on a more nw to n course in time? Are any current model runs taking that possibility into effect?

a huge potential unknown in terms of track and intensity....what if 92L reforms and intensifies? That could throw everything up in the air.

Explain more please about the throwing in the air part.