Skinny Black Line And Forecasts Greater Than 5 Days

[brunota2003]

Okay, I think we all know the story about the skinny black line...the effects of a hurricane are NOT a point, nor will the hurricane follow that black line, regardless of WHERE it is going. SO DO NOT PAY ATTENTION TO IT (or for that matter, any line of prediction going beyond 120 hours, or 5 days, see below). The NHC addressed this problem by taking the black line off the map (unless you select the option to have it on the map on your personal computer).

Another thing I have noticed is people goo gooing over model runs that are well over 120 hours...East Coast, gulf coast, east coast, gulf coast...Bermuda! Oh wait...that one hit Greenland on this run...only a measly 252 hours out!

Yes, I can say it is fun watching the end of the world unfold on the GFS 344 hours out from now, but the drama over a hit that has about the same chance of occurring as a meteorite has of hitting your BMW parked out front is a little excessive, don't ya think?

All I have to say about that though, is my favorite drawing I've ever made...ENJOY!:

[jinftl]

Right....what we don't see on all model runs is the standard deviation of accuracy as you go out in time.....a change in the 120-hour forecast point of even 250 miles is statistically not significant.....but it sure is in terms of who may be impacted.

Even greater than the track margin of error is the intensity margin of error.....try open wave to Cat 3 for any generic system!

(i do have to ask...and i have seen this gem before...why is florida missing? LOL)

[brunota2003]

When I originally made that, FL was there...but this was back in 2007 mind you, and someone requested that I cover FL up with plywood. So FL is not "missing", it is merely boarded up

[jinftl]

Love it!!! Thanks for sharing this again...it really 'says it all'

When I originally made that, FL was there...but this was back in 2007 mind you, and someone requested that I cover FL up with plywood. So FL is not "missing", it is merely boarded up

[brunota2003]

Love it!!! Thanks for sharing this again...it really 'says it all'

When I originally made that, FL was there...but this was back in 2007 mind you, and someone requested that I cover FL up with plywood. So FL is not "missing", it is merely boarded up

The old thread was titled "The 2,000 Mile Cone Club" or something along those lines...so that might of been where you saw it

[AnnularCane]

When I originally made that, FL was there...but this was back in 2007 mind you, and someone requested that I cover FL up with plywood. So FL is not "missing", it is merely boarded up

Well then, I think that pretty much says it all about where this thing is going.

(NOT a prediction! Just playing around!)