MWatkins wrote:WX at least you won't have much time to post if he's going to be pulling all-nighters!
I find it hard to believe this system is just going to go away. It has maintained a very well defined circulation even under some very hostile conditions.
Not comparing, but remember Katrina stuggled across the Atlantic and was actually numbered twice before it developed in the Bahamas. And Andrew was a nasty swirl that survived the most the mid-oceanic trough could muster (in an El Nino year).
These are the systems that scare me the most. These little ones that hang in there under very hostile conditions...
MW
Hey Mike, long time no see (well I haven't been around much) .. Finally got new PC Last Friday.
With regards to Katrina, yeah it took a collective effort from a former tropical depression combined with another tropical wave, and other ingredients for the complicated development of Tropical Depression 12 in which ultimately led to the birth of the most destructive monetary storm, and one of the deadliest storms in history.
Andrew is another. It survived tenaciously under strong shear but once clear of the hostile environment, and upper ridging took hold, conditions favored strengthening. As a matter of fact, Andrew in its inception struggled from Easterly shear. Conditions improved and allowed Andrew to be born. Then the upper level trough that ALMOST tore Andrew apart. In fact, Andrew was only producing sporadic bursts of convection and in fact, was almost a renmant low. BUT, the circulation aloft was vigorous. Once the upper trough split and opened, part of it moved northeast, while the other dropped southwest putting it in a position favorable to enhance outflow on the western semicircle of Andrew. A strong ridge of high pressure built over the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic, and the rest is history.
Fran was another storm that incipently struggled. There are many others too. Later developers increases the chances of a later recurve.
