ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA (02L)

[wxmann_91]

I started reading about 1 hour ago and, like you; vowed to go to bed.
But look at us, posting after 3 AM.
BOY, is this going to be a long, long week or more.......
NOW, I am going to bed.
I think..........

I am pulling an all nighter lol. I am relying on Coffee to keep me up tomorrow lol.

If I were you, I'd wait a couple days to start the all nighters. Or you might need a little more coffee than just the amount to keep you awake tomorrow... try the whole week.

[KWT]

The difference is every source that normally shows an upgrade are this time showing it as Ana, last time that didn't happen.

I think its pretty much certain to be Ana now.

[Aric Dunn]

wow i have been gone 5 hours and there has been 6 pages.. lol

well we al knew it was at least a TD.. i glad they upgraded it ..

TS tomorrow if trend continues..

[george_r_1961]

I wouldn't call her name yet, last time we were sure it was named until the advisory came without naming it.

If NRL shows it as "Ana" its already been named. The NHC just hasnt issued any public products calling it "Ana" as of yet.

[Evil Jeremy]

I wouldn't call her name yet, last time we were sure it was named until the advisory came without naming it.

Last time though it was not named Ana on the model runs and on NRL, the latter of which is generally a good sign of things to come. And last time, the system was not this impressive, and was in much worse conditions.

[Aric Dunn]

yeah it ANA ... lol

[Evil Jeremy]

I started reading about 1 hour ago and, like you; vowed to go to bed.
But look at us, posting after 3 AM.
BOY, is this going to be a long, long week or more.......
NOW, I am going to bed.
I think..........

I am pulling an all nighter lol. I am relying on Coffee to keep me up tomorrow lol.

If I were you, I'd wait a couple days to start the all nighters. Or you might need a little more coffee than just the amount to keep you awake tomorrow... try the whole week.

The main reason why I am up is because I was expecting an advisory (or 2) at 11PM, and the lack of which did not give me closure. I couldn't go to sleep. I don't have any excuses for why I am still up though lol.

[KWT]

Well looks like this will be Ana and Bill probably isn't more then 24hrs behind it.

This thread is going to be one of those stupidly long ones it seems, same with 90l...

[Aric Dunn]

well after looking at the latest microwave.. im not surprised they upgraded it to ANA

we have convection around the circulation and it maintaining.. huge improvement from 6 hours ago ..

[KWT]

Yep certainly is quite an impressive little circulation, does need watching I feel.

I've got a bad feeling all it needs is one small are aof low shear near the Bahamas and this thing could explode, maybe we might see what Katrina could have done if it had 24hrs longer over waters near florida...

[Aric Dunn]

Yep certainly is quite an impressive little circulation, does need watching I feel.

I've got a bad feeling all it needs is one small are aof low shear near the Bahamas and this thing could explode, maybe we might see what Katrina could have done if it had 24hrs longer over waters near florida...

there is some worry with this kind of forecast since its such a small system.. it will get bigger as time goes on and the moisture increases .. so its going to be very tricky.. its sleepy time for me though as somehow i have a feeling i will need it .. later next week.. I will probably be chasing .......

[KWT]

Yep totally agree, these small systems tend to go up and down pretty quickly, however the dynamic models are keen on strengthening, the GFDL looks downright scary with a track heading towards south Florida and I can only guess the gulf after that as well.

[Rainband]

http://www.wunderground.com/DisplayDisc ... ort_Richey

locals not sure what to think

[Aric Dunn]

crazy as it seems .. the gulf may have there own problem iver the next few days as the wave entering the straights of florida is showing a little more signs of organizing ... long range radar helping a little there..

[KWT]

Got to admit that the GFDL is pretty scary, a small category-1/2 heading towards the very warm bahamas waters....

[bvigal]

836
WHXX01 KWBC 150646
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0646 UTC SAT AUG 15 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE ANA (AL022009) 20090815 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090815 0600 090815 1800 090816 0600 090816 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.5N 46.1W 15.2N 49.1W 16.3N 52.9W 17.8N 57.4W
BAMD 14.5N 46.1W 15.4N 48.6W 16.3N 51.7W 17.2N 55.2W
BAMM 14.5N 46.1W 15.1N 48.8W 15.7N 52.1W 16.4N 56.0W
LBAR 14.5N 46.1W 14.9N 48.7W 15.7N 51.6W 16.6N 55.1W
SHIP 35KTS 41KTS 45KTS 48KTS
DSHP 35KTS 41KTS 45KTS 48KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090817 0600 090818 0600 090819 0600 090820 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 19.2N 62.0W 22.2N 70.3W 25.0N 76.6W 26.8N 80.9W
BAMD 17.9N 58.9W 19.4N 66.6W 21.2N 73.5W 22.6N 78.4W
BAMM 17.0N 60.1W 18.5N 68.5W 20.0N 76.4W 21.3N 82.6W
LBAR 17.5N 58.9W 19.4N 66.8W .0N .0W .0N .0W
SHIP 51KTS 55KTS 57KTS 58KTS
DSHP 51KTS 55KTS 57KTS 58KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.5N LONCUR = 46.1W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 14.6N LONM12 = 43.2W DIRM12 = 268DEG SPDM12 = 15KT
LATM24 = 14.5N LONM24 = 40.5W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 60NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 60NM

$$
NNNN

[jrpsuper123]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... bw&PROD=ir

tropical storm ana!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ANA ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022009
500 AM AST SAT AUG 15 2009

...ANA FORMS IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...

INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
TROPICAL STORM ANA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ANA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 46.8 WEST OR ABOUT 1010
MILES...1630 KM...EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

ANA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THIS FORECAST TRACK ANA COULD
BE APPROACHING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ON MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST FOR NEXT 48 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON DATA FROM NOAA BUOY
41041 IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...14.6N 46.8W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

TROPICAL STORM ANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022009
0900 UTC SAT AUG 15 2009

INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF TROPICAL STORM ANA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE
REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 46.8W AT 15/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 46.8W AT 15/0900Z
AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 46.1W

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 14.7N 49.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 15.3N 52.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 16.1N 56.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 17.0N 60.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 40SE 40SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 19.5N 67.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 35NE 0SE 0SW 35NW.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 50SW 75NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 22.5N 73.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 26.0N 78.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.6N 46.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[southerngale]

000
WTNT42 KNHC 150840
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022009
500 AM AST SAT AUG 15 2009

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS CONTINUED
TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND IS NOW UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM
ANA. THE STORM IS DISPLAYING IMPROVED BANDING IN THE WESTERN
SEMICIRCLE ALONG WITH A BALL OF CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. NOAA
BUOY 41041 REPORTED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF ABOUT 1005 MB AS THE
DEPRESSION PASSED VERY NEAR THE BUOY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
RAISED TO 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY IN AGREEMENT WITH DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM SAB AND TAFB.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/14. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT THAT A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN NORTH OF THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS PATTERN FAVORS THE
TRACK OF ANA GRADUALLY BENDING FROM A WEST TO A WEST-NORTHWEST
DIRECTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT
OUTLIERS TO THIS TRACK ARE THE GFDL AND GFS...WHICH BOTH WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM RATHER QUICKLY...LEADING TO A MORE WESTWARD TRACK OF THE
CYCLONE. IN A FEW DAYS...SOME OF THE MODELS...SUCH AS THE GFS...
SHOW A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THAT COULD
ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO GAIN A LITTLE MORE LATITUDE. THIS WEAKNESS
APPEARS TO BE CAUSED BY THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY NEAR
25N 65W. HOWEVER...THE MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD WITH MINIMAL INFLUENCE ON
THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE. GENERALLY...THE MODELS THAT HOLD ONTO
ANA ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE NHC
TRACK FORECAST IS SHIFTED TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST FOR THIS ADVISORY...
BUT NOT AS FAR AS THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE 0000 UTC GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY FORECAST A MORE CONDUCIVE
ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING THAN PREVIOUS CYCLES...SHOWING A
WEAKER MID-OCEANIC TROUGH AFFECTING THE SYSTEM. IN PARTICULAR...THE
UKMET AND NOGAPS BUILD UPPER-RIDGING NEAR THE CYCLONE WITH LIGHT
SHEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF SHOWS SOME WESTERLY
SHEAR DEVELOPING IN ABOUT A DAY...BUT EVEN THAT MODEL HAS LIGHTER
SHEAR CONDITIONS IN A FEW DAYS. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE RUNS THE
FULL SPECTRUM THIS MORNING...WITH THE GFDL DISSIPATING THE
SYSTEM...WHILE THE HWRF SHOWS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE BY THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE UPPER-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS INCREASED CONSERVATIVELY...IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE
SHIPS MODEL BUT BELOW THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS LATER TODAY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/0900Z 14.6N 46.8W 35 KT
12HR VT 15/1800Z 14.7N 49.4W 40 KT
24HR VT 16/0600Z 15.3N 52.7W 45 KT
36HR VT 16/1800Z 16.1N 56.4W 45 KT
48HR VT 17/0600Z 17.0N 60.0W 50 KT
72HR VT 18/0600Z 19.5N 67.0W 55 KT
96HR VT 19/0600Z 22.5N 73.0W 60 KT
120HR VT 20/0600Z 26.0N 78.5W 60 KT

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[Kingarabian]

Bout time! Will be exciting to watch!