ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA (02L)

[perk]

I'm noticing a bend back West when Ana nears Florida. Perhaps a sign of a High building in.

HouTxmetro i just read the NHC discussion on Ana and they did shift the track to the south, and said that they were still north of the model guidance.

[srainhoutx]

Ever since seeing on radar that August morning that the eyewall was only about 20 miles away in Florida City, when we weren't expecting K to come within a hundred miles of the Keys...I keep one eye on the GFDL, logical or not.

Or to be waste deep in rain water from K in the Lower Keys.

[Evil Jeremy]

I am treating this like any other threat, and am starting preparations now, because even if Ana misses us, a storm named Bill might rear its ugly cone our way in about a week from now.

Anyways, I do not think this will become a remainment low again. Overall, there is a little moisture surrounding the center of Ana in general, and this storm is a fighter (it already came back from the graveyard). I expect this to refire late in the day. It might weaken into a depression before then, but I doubt the NHC will shut down advisories for it again, especially with it nearing the Islands.

[Sanibel]

It all depends. Like I said a few days ago (everyone loves it when people quote themselves ) the area this is entering has destroyed everything that has moved into it so far this year - especially strugglers like this one.

The conversation here should be the hotter SST's downrange in the Gulf if enough of a Low maintains. The dry air probably won't be a factor if it gets into that area. But who knows, maybe the negativity is still there as well since nothing has sprouted in the Gulf so far despite numerous lingering troughs.


A more established system like TD3 could be enough to push over the top as far as negative conditions.

[Evil Jeremy]

It all depends. Like I said a few days ago (everyone loves it when people quote themselves ) the area this is entering has destroyed everything that has moved into it so far this year - especially strugglers like this one.

It has destroyed tropical waves and potential future systems, but the death zone has not been tested against an established TS. I think Ana will win this one, but this is the tropics, and anything can happen.

[gatorcane]

Latest:

[storms NC]

May I ask. With the stall front along the EC will move out and then it will push the ULL back to the east some not a lot but some. Then you have another front in the middle of the US and that will move off shore and move the ULL more to the east. IF and I a say IF it does it will help both storms to build up. Then it would then be up in the air if it would move more east or more West or could go North. I am asking I am not a pro. I see this a wait and see in a few days to what happens with the ULL. Any thing can happen. But what you say Pros. Any help here? Am I wrong in my thinking?

[Bocadude85]

I don't think we will have any problems fro Ana here in South Fla....

[thetruesms]

I agree, dry air is a problem, too. NHC mentions the very shallow vertical extent of Ana (only to 500mb). I do see shear impacting the western side of Ana. Looking closely at the WV loop, it may be affecting Ana in the mid levels vs. the top. I can see the bright cirrus isn't deformed as much as the middle layers. Both may be players in the weakening.

I'm going for a 4hr bike ride, then I have to mow my lawn. Can you mow my lawn, too, while you're at it?

I also see shear impacting the system, particularly since 12Z. But while watching the loop, I think I was caught more by the dry air issue than the shear

[Derek Ortt]

I am also seeing shear from the UL over the system and a restriction of the outflow

And one more point before I mow my yard (see...I really don't want to get outside when its 90F at 10 AM)...

If storms were so delicate as to lose there convection in the face of this amount of "shear"...we would never get a storm. That's why I am saying it has to be something else. Every system...at some point...faces less than ideal upper air...worse than this...and most of them can muster colder than -50C over the tropics.

The tops began to warm before it moved out...and even in shear...storms muster colder than -50C.

It has to be dry air that is causing warm tops...and the fact the convection is scattered...and the cu field to the sw-se is gone. There is no moist inflow into the system.

there is no doubt that there is also some dry air.

However, if it were only dry air, I'd expect the weakening convection to be over the center. Maybe it is low-level easterlies

[HURRICANELONNY]

I love when the models are on me this far out. It never happens. There just not the accurate. Maybe in a 100 years. If it was aiming for the carolinas. I would be more concerned. The weather changes too fast. If the cone is still on me in 4 days. Maybe I'll get supplies.

[Macrocane]

Shear and dry air are the problems for Ana but it is still moisturizing the air for TD-3 that's why I think TD-3 will have a better opportunity to intensify.

[deltadog03]

I think it might be the easterlies

[artist]

are they still flying a research mission again today?

[senorpepr]

are they still flying a research mission again today?

That's the plan, but the new flight plan hasn't been released yet.

[Sanibel]

HWRF is worrisome if it verifies. NHC overlaps it. Tight intensifying cyclone into the Key Largo/Miami area.

[RL3AO]

I love when the models are on me this far out. It never happens. There just not the accurate. Maybe in a 100 years. If it was aiming for the carolinas. I would be more concerned. The weather changes too fast. If the cone is still on me in 4 days. Maybe I'll get supplies.

Good idea. Wait until it is 36 hours away to get supplies.

[Recurve]

HWRF, thanks.

I go to store now.

[gatorcane]

I think with what happened with Ike last year, missing South FL to the south despite nearly every model pointing it at Miami-Ftlaud-West Palm Beach only a few days out has made some down here a bit complacent....

[tolakram]

Naked.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... is_floater