Possible Gulf Develpoment Next Weekend???

[srainhoutx]

Looks to be a rather well defined MCV. Certainly mid level circulation. Remember with a little time these type feature can spin down to the surface. Time will tell.

[wxman57]

I see no rotation at the surface. Surface obs are the way to go for monitoring this system in a data-rich environment. Models move the vorticity inland into the northern Gulf coast in about 30 hours. Not much time for any organization. I don't think it's a significant development threat.

[mpic]

I do not really see any rotation there as with the other one what we must be seeing is something in the mid levels I would guess since there is no pressure drop.If that makes since?someone else might could answer that.

The reason I ask, is that I've heard to expect/watch for hurricanes this year to show up with no long term focus...last minute storms like Humberto. He must have started somewhere, right?

[HouTXmetro]

So what happened to the Wave that's suppose to move into south Texas next week?

[Javlin]

I do not really see any rotation there as with the other one what we must be seeing is something in the mid levels I would guess since there is no pressure drop.If that makes since?someone else might could answer that.

The reason I ask, is that I've heard to expect/watch for hurricanes this year to show up with no long term focus...last minute storms like Humberto. He must have started somewhere, right?

No problem asking shoot I am still learning all the time that's how it's done

Thks for the clarification there WX57 at least maybe what I call fun winds will get to us.

[rockyman]

winds have shifted to the west-southwest at Sand Key:

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=SANF1

This could be thunderstorm-induced, so we'll need to see some consistency over the next few hours

[srainhoutx]

One thing I have noticed is NNW wind (very light) Pulaski Shoal Light and WSW wind at Sand Key Light. Probably move of an effect of the MCV. Pressures are not dropping though.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/key/marine/

[KatDaddy]

There is no doubt rotation over the Keys with the disturbed weather headed slowly WNW.

[BigA]

There is no doubt rotation over the Keys with the disturbed weather headed slowly WNW.

Agreed. The 64,000 dollar question at the moment is whether it is at the surface or the mid levels. A mid level spin can do one heck of an impersonation of a surface rotation.

[Javlin]

I think thats what the bouys and WXman57 noted nothing happening at the surface,could something weak happen? I guess it's always a possibilty with the weather though I think it is slim.

[tolakram]

Pressures generally rising at Key West, though other readings are interesting.

http://www.wunderground.com/history/air ... atename=NA

[Javlin]

There are some interesting obs there the wind speed and direction change there,then you have the AVN loop talk about an explosion in convection!regardless might need too look at some bouys out front just for curiosity sake.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html

[Aric Dunn]

This needs to be watched a little closer now.. showing more signs of organizing ... although pressures are still high there is evidence of a surface circulation in the area.. with key west having SW winds miami and the upper keys having a SE wind and naple Ft.myers having a East and Ne wind.
also visible sat images are showing inflow and convection has persisted for 24 hours with it. in addition radar is out miami and key west showing rotation and some structure. being that its a small system it could easily spin up fast.. WXMAN57 is right we need to keep watching the data. so far the only thing that is missing is some pressure drops, if that starts to happen then things may happen fast.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Nothing tropical or surface yet. Been watch this trough since it scooped through the leewards. Not even close to anything more than a bit of MLC. Put pay close attention. Features like this dont take long to develop into a storm in the gulf

[JonathanBelles]

I'm getting the first piece of moisture from the TW right now. Cloudy and breezy. no rain yet.

[Javlin]

I was kinda wondering the same thing about the pressures maybe they will show later while some of the other factors are coming into play.Still not much time for development though.What is it on a cane the wind lag's behind the pressure drop?

[xironman]

It looks like there is something going on

[Aric Dunn]

radar is interesting ... i hate saying things like this cause it early and maybe jumping the gun a little.. but just south of naples there appears to be some sort of a weak circulation forming... confidence in that is low to medium.. just needs to be watched ... Im interested anyway..lol

[KatDaddy]

Very interesting feature indeed and the GOM waters are very warm. Something is going on. The satellite and radar show the rotation well. Could the mid-level rotation be making its way to the surface?

[tropicwatch]

Well still no signs of pressure drops at the surface yet. It might still be a mid to upper level low. Could get interesting if is sinks to the surface entering the GOM.

Tropicwatch