Caribbean - Central America Weather
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- Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
ANA always drifting west and could pose a threat for all the Leewards including PR...[/b]
[b]695
WTNT32 KNHC 151432
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ANA ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022009
1100 AM AST SAT AUG 15 2009
...ANA...PRONOUNCED AH-NA...MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN STRENGTH...
INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO
RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ANA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY
BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER TODAY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ANA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.3 WEST OR ABOUT
920 MILES...1480 KM...EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
ANA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THIS MOTION COULD BRING THE CENTER OF ANA NEAR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
ON MONDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.
...SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...14.3N 48.3W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
WTNT22 KNHC 151431
TCMAT2
TROPICAL STORM ANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022009
1500 UTC SAT AUG 15 2009
INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO
RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ANA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY
BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER TODAY.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 48.3W AT 15/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 48.3W AT 15/1500Z
AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 47.6W
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 14.6N 50.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 15.2N 54.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 16.1N 58.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 40SE 40SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 17.3N 62.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 35NE 0SE 0SW 35NW.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 50SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 19.5N 69.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 85SE 60SW 85NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 22.0N 74.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 25.0N 80.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.3N 48.3W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
[b]695
WTNT32 KNHC 151432
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ANA ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022009
1100 AM AST SAT AUG 15 2009
...ANA...PRONOUNCED AH-NA...MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN STRENGTH...
INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO
RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ANA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY
BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER TODAY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ANA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.3 WEST OR ABOUT
920 MILES...1480 KM...EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
ANA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THIS MOTION COULD BRING THE CENTER OF ANA NEAR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
ON MONDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.
...SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...14.3N 48.3W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
WTNT22 KNHC 151431
TCMAT2
TROPICAL STORM ANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022009
1500 UTC SAT AUG 15 2009
INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO
RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ANA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY
BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER TODAY.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 48.3W AT 15/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 48.3W AT 15/1500Z
AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 47.6W
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 14.6N 50.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 15.2N 54.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 16.1N 58.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 40SE 40SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 17.3N 62.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 35NE 0SE 0SW 35NW.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 50SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 19.5N 69.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 85SE 60SW 85NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 22.0N 74.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 25.0N 80.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.3N 48.3W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145323
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: E.Carib Thread=Web Cams / Obs / Forecasts / Daily Weather
This is newly formed TD 3.
WTNT43 KNHC 151440
TCDAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
1100 AM AST SAT AUG 15 2009
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND QUIKSCAT DATA INDICATE THAT THE BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC HAS FORMED A WELL-DEFINED
CIRCULATION AND SUFFICIENTLY ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO BE DESIGNATED A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 30 KT BASED ON THE
QUIKSCAT DATA...AS WELL AS SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND
35 KT FROM SAB AND TAFB.
THE SYSTEM IS CONSOLIDATING SOUTH OF WHERE THE CENTER WAS BEING
TRACKED YESTERDAY...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN
265/15. SOME ERRATIC MOTION IS POSSIBLE TODAY AS THE DEPRESSION
INTERACTS WITH THE ELONGATED MONSOON/TROPICAL WAVE CIRCULATION THAT
SPAWNED IT. OVERALL...DEEP-LAYER HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN ATLANTIC SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE GENERALLY WESTWARD
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-
NORTHWEST. THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SCENARIO...AND THERE IS A FAIRLY TIGHT CLUSTER OF THE MODELS
AROUND THE 5 DAY FORECAST POINT. ONE EXCEPTION IS THE ECMWF...
WHICH FORECASTS SIGNIFICANTLY MORE NORTHWARD MOTION THAN THE OTHER
MODELS AND AT THIS TIME IS A RIGHT OUTLIER.
THE CYCLONE IS IN DEEP-LAYER EASTERLY FLOW WITH LIGHT/MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FORECAST FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 4 DAYS. ALL
INTENSITY GUIDANCE FORECASTS THE SYSTEM TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE HWRF FORECASTING A MAJOR
HURRICANE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST THUS CALLS FOR GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING TO A TROPICAL STORM IN 12 HR AND A HURRICANE IN 72-96
HR IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS MODELS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 15/1500Z 11.5N 34.0W 30 KT
12HR VT 16/0000Z 11.3N 36.1W 35 KT
24HR VT 16/1200Z 11.3N 38.9W 40 KT
36HR VT 17/0000Z 11.8N 41.7W 45 KT
48HR VT 17/1200Z 12.4N 44.4W 50 KT
72HR VT 18/1200Z 14.0N 50.5W 60 KT
96HR VT 19/1200Z 16.5N 57.0W 75 KT
120HR VT 20/1200Z 19.0N 63.0W 90 KT
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

WTNT43 KNHC 151440
TCDAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
1100 AM AST SAT AUG 15 2009
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND QUIKSCAT DATA INDICATE THAT THE BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC HAS FORMED A WELL-DEFINED
CIRCULATION AND SUFFICIENTLY ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO BE DESIGNATED A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 30 KT BASED ON THE
QUIKSCAT DATA...AS WELL AS SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND
35 KT FROM SAB AND TAFB.
THE SYSTEM IS CONSOLIDATING SOUTH OF WHERE THE CENTER WAS BEING
TRACKED YESTERDAY...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN
265/15. SOME ERRATIC MOTION IS POSSIBLE TODAY AS THE DEPRESSION
INTERACTS WITH THE ELONGATED MONSOON/TROPICAL WAVE CIRCULATION THAT
SPAWNED IT. OVERALL...DEEP-LAYER HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN ATLANTIC SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE GENERALLY WESTWARD
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-
NORTHWEST. THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SCENARIO...AND THERE IS A FAIRLY TIGHT CLUSTER OF THE MODELS
AROUND THE 5 DAY FORECAST POINT. ONE EXCEPTION IS THE ECMWF...
WHICH FORECASTS SIGNIFICANTLY MORE NORTHWARD MOTION THAN THE OTHER
MODELS AND AT THIS TIME IS A RIGHT OUTLIER.
THE CYCLONE IS IN DEEP-LAYER EASTERLY FLOW WITH LIGHT/MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FORECAST FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 4 DAYS. ALL
INTENSITY GUIDANCE FORECASTS THE SYSTEM TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE HWRF FORECASTING A MAJOR
HURRICANE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST THUS CALLS FOR GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING TO A TROPICAL STORM IN 12 HR AND A HURRICANE IN 72-96
HR IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS MODELS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 15/1500Z 11.5N 34.0W 30 KT
12HR VT 16/0000Z 11.3N 36.1W 35 KT
24HR VT 16/1200Z 11.3N 38.9W 40 KT
36HR VT 17/0000Z 11.8N 41.7W 45 KT
48HR VT 17/1200Z 12.4N 44.4W 50 KT
72HR VT 18/1200Z 14.0N 50.5W 60 KT
96HR VT 19/1200Z 16.5N 57.0W 75 KT
120HR VT 20/1200Z 19.0N 63.0W 90 KT
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

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Re: E.Carib Thread=Web Cams / Obs / Forecasts / Daily Weather
Hi All
A friend of mine sent this link to me.... seems to cover a whole host of stuff.
http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=29
Looks like we gonna be busy here over the next couple of days.
A friend of mine sent this link to me.... seems to cover a whole host of stuff.
http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=29
Looks like we gonna be busy here over the next couple of days.
0 likes
- Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
Re: E.Carib Thread=Web Cams / Obs / Forecasts / Daily Weather
msbee wrote:stop! enough already!
Ana scoop:

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Re: E.Carib Thread=Web Cams / Obs / Forecasts / Daily Weather
yea, yellow, soon to be red, right?
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Geeze! oh well, at least I told everyone I saw in town prepare for the worst, etc etc. Can't say I didn't try! and I think people are listening...according to boat folks we have about 10 boats from St. Thomas over here already. Lots of boats now in the mangroves, the rest heading there soon. Prep plans swinging into higher gear. I'll be in the yard momentarily...
0 likes
- Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
Re: E.Carib Thread=Web Cams / Obs / Forecasts / Daily Weather
msbee wrote:yea, yellow, soon to be red, right?
Yeah for the yellow, for the red i don't know... maybe tommorow as they anticipate a TS with direct threat for you Monday morning and during the day. Given METEO-France winds will reach 55 kts on St Marteen and St Barth could pick up at 100 kilometers, strongs showers and a rough sea...

0 likes
- Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
000
AXNT20 KNHC 151735 CCA
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN AUG 15 2009
CORRECTED DISTANCE TO ISLANDS FOR T.S. ANA AND T.D. THREE
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM ANA IS CENTERED NEAR 14.3N 48.3W AT 15/1500 UTC
OR ABOUT 875 NM EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MOVING W AT 14
KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEE LATEST
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN
60 NM E SEMICIRCLE.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE HAS FORMED OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL
NORTH ATLC. TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE IS CENTERED NEAR 11.5N
34.0W AT 15/1500 UTC OR ABOUT 640 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM W SEMICIRCLE AND 150 NM SE
QUADRANT.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 81W/82W S OF 20N MOVING W 15 KT. THIS
WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE BASED
ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT FROM CIMSS. RECENT
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CYCLONIC TURNING ASSOCIATED
WITH LOW LEVEL CLOUDS NEAR THIS WAVE. THE 15/1200 UTC QUIKSCAT
PASS INDICATES WELL-DEFINED CYCLONIC CURVATURE IN THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW NEAR THIS WAVE...WITH E TO SE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT WITHIN
120 NM E OF THE WAVE AXIS AND E WINDS AROUND 10 KT WITHIN 120 W
OF THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS S OF 19N. THIS CONVECTION IS BEING
SUPPORTED BY ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 19N84W AND AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM THIS UPPER LOW TO 11N82W.
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 93W/94W S OF 20N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.
THIS WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
BASED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. HOWEVER...SUBSIDENCE
AND DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ARE
INHIBITING DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THIS WAVE OVER THE DISCUSSION
AREA. HOWEVER...THIS WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP CONVECTION IN
PORTIONS OF THE E PACIFIC REGION. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THIS
CONVECTION...SEE THE LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR
THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N16W 13N22W 13N28W THEN ALONG
10N35W 10N49W 10N62W. NUMEROUS MODERATE/SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-15N E OF 19W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 43W-46W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 55W-60W.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE N
GULF NEAR 27N91W TO S MISSISSIPPI NEAR 30N89W. ATMOSPHERIC
INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES IS SUPPORTING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 25N-29N BETWEEN
88W-95W. ALSO...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR A SURFACE TROUGH OVER
THE NE GULF IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS N
OF 28N E OF 88W. OVER THE SE GULF...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IN
MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER
THE SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN IS SUPPORTING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
23N-26N BETWEEN 80W-83W. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING SUPPORTED BY LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE SE GULF
EXTENDING FROM NAPLES FLORIDA TO THE WESTERN FLORIDA KEYS.
ACROSS THE SW GULF...DEEP LAYER DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE RIDGE IS SUPPORTING GENERALLY FAIR
WEATHER.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING OVER THE W CARIBBEAN
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 81W/82W S OF 20N AND AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES
SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE INFORMATION. ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
AND E CARIBBEAN...DEEP LAYER DRY AIR AND GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER
IS OCCURRING. FRESH TRADE WINDS S OF A SURFACE RIDGE ARE
ADVECTING POCKETS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ISOLATED SHOWERS
WESTWARD FROM 13N-17N E OF 73W. ACROSS THE FAR SE CARIBBEAN...AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS SUPPORTING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS S OF 13N E OF 64W.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC NEAR
30N76W. TO THE WEST OF THIS UPPER LEVEL HIGH...ATMOSPHERIC LIFT
IN MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS N OF 29N W OF 77W. TO THE
E...ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
NEAR 24N66W IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 23N-27N BETWEEN 65W-70W. ADDITIONALLY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING
WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
24N62W TO 31N57W. ATMOSPHERIC LIFT IN SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT TO
THE E OF AN NORTH-TO-SOUTH-ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED
NEAR 26N52W IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NW
OF TROPICAL STORM ANA FROM 18N-24N BETWEEN 51W-55W. FARTHER TO
THE E...A DEEP LAYER RIDGE IS PRESENT WITH AN ASSOCIATED 1025 MB
SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N33W.
$$
ARIEL COHEN/JOHN CANGIALOSI
AXNT20 KNHC 151735 CCA
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN AUG 15 2009
CORRECTED DISTANCE TO ISLANDS FOR T.S. ANA AND T.D. THREE
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM ANA IS CENTERED NEAR 14.3N 48.3W AT 15/1500 UTC
OR ABOUT 875 NM EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MOVING W AT 14
KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEE LATEST
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN
60 NM E SEMICIRCLE.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE HAS FORMED OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL
NORTH ATLC. TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE IS CENTERED NEAR 11.5N
34.0W AT 15/1500 UTC OR ABOUT 640 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM W SEMICIRCLE AND 150 NM SE
QUADRANT.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 81W/82W S OF 20N MOVING W 15 KT. THIS
WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE BASED
ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT FROM CIMSS. RECENT
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CYCLONIC TURNING ASSOCIATED
WITH LOW LEVEL CLOUDS NEAR THIS WAVE. THE 15/1200 UTC QUIKSCAT
PASS INDICATES WELL-DEFINED CYCLONIC CURVATURE IN THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW NEAR THIS WAVE...WITH E TO SE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT WITHIN
120 NM E OF THE WAVE AXIS AND E WINDS AROUND 10 KT WITHIN 120 W
OF THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS S OF 19N. THIS CONVECTION IS BEING
SUPPORTED BY ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 19N84W AND AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM THIS UPPER LOW TO 11N82W.
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 93W/94W S OF 20N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.
THIS WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
BASED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. HOWEVER...SUBSIDENCE
AND DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ARE
INHIBITING DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THIS WAVE OVER THE DISCUSSION
AREA. HOWEVER...THIS WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP CONVECTION IN
PORTIONS OF THE E PACIFIC REGION. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THIS
CONVECTION...SEE THE LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR
THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N16W 13N22W 13N28W THEN ALONG
10N35W 10N49W 10N62W. NUMEROUS MODERATE/SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-15N E OF 19W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 43W-46W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 55W-60W.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE N
GULF NEAR 27N91W TO S MISSISSIPPI NEAR 30N89W. ATMOSPHERIC
INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES IS SUPPORTING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 25N-29N BETWEEN
88W-95W. ALSO...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR A SURFACE TROUGH OVER
THE NE GULF IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS N
OF 28N E OF 88W. OVER THE SE GULF...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IN
MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER
THE SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN IS SUPPORTING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
23N-26N BETWEEN 80W-83W. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING SUPPORTED BY LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE SE GULF
EXTENDING FROM NAPLES FLORIDA TO THE WESTERN FLORIDA KEYS.
ACROSS THE SW GULF...DEEP LAYER DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE RIDGE IS SUPPORTING GENERALLY FAIR
WEATHER.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING OVER THE W CARIBBEAN
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 81W/82W S OF 20N AND AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES
SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE INFORMATION. ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
AND E CARIBBEAN...DEEP LAYER DRY AIR AND GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER
IS OCCURRING. FRESH TRADE WINDS S OF A SURFACE RIDGE ARE
ADVECTING POCKETS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ISOLATED SHOWERS
WESTWARD FROM 13N-17N E OF 73W. ACROSS THE FAR SE CARIBBEAN...AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS SUPPORTING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS S OF 13N E OF 64W.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC NEAR
30N76W. TO THE WEST OF THIS UPPER LEVEL HIGH...ATMOSPHERIC LIFT
IN MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS N OF 29N W OF 77W. TO THE
E...ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
NEAR 24N66W IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 23N-27N BETWEEN 65W-70W. ADDITIONALLY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING
WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
24N62W TO 31N57W. ATMOSPHERIC LIFT IN SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT TO
THE E OF AN NORTH-TO-SOUTH-ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED
NEAR 26N52W IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NW
OF TROPICAL STORM ANA FROM 18N-24N BETWEEN 51W-55W. FARTHER TO
THE E...A DEEP LAYER RIDGE IS PRESENT WITH AN ASSOCIATED 1025 MB
SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N33W.
$$
ARIEL COHEN/JOHN CANGIALOSI
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- Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
000
AWCA82 TJSJ 151501
RWSVI
WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1101 AM AST SAT AUG 15 2009
TROPICAL STORM ANA WAS LOCATED AT 14.3 NORTH...48.3 WEST OR ABOUT
920 MILES FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AT 11AM AST THIS MORNING. ANA IS
FORECAST TO TRACK VERY CLOSE TO OR DIRECTLY OVER PUERTO RICO ON
MONDAY. ALSO AS OF 11 AM...TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE HAS JUST
FORMED...AND IS ALSO FORECAST TO TRACK CLOSE TO THE LOCAL AREA BY
THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS SYSTEM IS STILL FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO HAVE
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK AND INTENSITY...BUT SHOULD
STILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY BY THE PUBLIC. THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN SAN JUAN WILL ISSUE MORE ON THESE SYSTEMS AND THE
RAINFALL EXPECTED FROM THEM WHEN THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF ANA
AND POSSIBLE SUBSEQUENT SYSTEMS ARE BETTER KNOWN. A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH MAY BE ISSUED LATER THIS EVENING FOR THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
PUERTO RICO. IN THE MEANTIME...RESIDENTS AND VISITORS ARE URGED TO
MAKE PRELIMINARY PREPARATIONS FOR INCLEMENT WEATHER.
SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS...UNTIL
MONDAY...AT WHICH TIME SEAS AND WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH THE ONSET
OF TROPICAL STORM ANA.
$$
AWCA82 TJSJ 151501
RWSVI
WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1101 AM AST SAT AUG 15 2009
TROPICAL STORM ANA WAS LOCATED AT 14.3 NORTH...48.3 WEST OR ABOUT
920 MILES FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AT 11AM AST THIS MORNING. ANA IS
FORECAST TO TRACK VERY CLOSE TO OR DIRECTLY OVER PUERTO RICO ON
MONDAY. ALSO AS OF 11 AM...TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE HAS JUST
FORMED...AND IS ALSO FORECAST TO TRACK CLOSE TO THE LOCAL AREA BY
THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS SYSTEM IS STILL FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO HAVE
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK AND INTENSITY...BUT SHOULD
STILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY BY THE PUBLIC. THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN SAN JUAN WILL ISSUE MORE ON THESE SYSTEMS AND THE
RAINFALL EXPECTED FROM THEM WHEN THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF ANA
AND POSSIBLE SUBSEQUENT SYSTEMS ARE BETTER KNOWN. A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH MAY BE ISSUED LATER THIS EVENING FOR THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
PUERTO RICO. IN THE MEANTIME...RESIDENTS AND VISITORS ARE URGED TO
MAKE PRELIMINARY PREPARATIONS FOR INCLEMENT WEATHER.
SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS...UNTIL
MONDAY...AT WHICH TIME SEAS AND WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH THE ONSET
OF TROPICAL STORM ANA.
$$
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- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145323
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: E.Carib Thread=Web Cams / Obs / Forecasts / Daily Weather
Hi my friends,I haved not been much in the tent today as I am buying some things as part of the preparations for anything that may occur.I will be more here later this evening.
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Re: E.Carib Thread=Web Cams / Obs / Forecasts / Daily Weather
hi Luis
I just came back myself from some serious shopping.
the supermarkets are crazy..packed..and already a lot of the shelves are empty
I just came back myself from some serious shopping.
the supermarkets are crazy..packed..and already a lot of the shelves are empty
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- Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
Re: E.Carib Thread=Web Cams / Obs / Forecasts / Daily Weather
msbee wrote:hi Luis
I just came back myself from some serious shopping.
the supermarkets are crazy..packed..and already a lot of the shelves are empty

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- expat2carib
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 458
- Joined: Tue Jul 22, 2008 1:44 pm
- Location: Sint Maarten
Re: E.Carib Thread=Web Cams / Obs / Forecasts / Daily Weather
Gustywind wrote:msbee wrote:stop! enough already!
Ana scoop:
Msbee...Meteo-France have already requiered an yellow alert for Guadeloupe and the Northern Leewards islands...
Back in Dominica after 2 days in St. Maarten. People in St. Maarten where obs on the situation. At least in Simpson Bay where multiple people were sitting on the bagel house terrace (Wifi) and discussing the "coming" systems.
Here in Dominica nothing. Nothing on the radio, newspapers NOTHING! This can make me angry. I don't know if I will be the one again shouting "The wolves are coming....the wolves are coming.
@Gusty. What's the code on Martinique?
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- Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
Seems that TD3 is steadily organizing and drifting west or even wsw...looking carefully to our east.
Maybe an incidence on the futur models track more souther and maybe a possible threat for the Windwards...?
Look at these coordinates...hope quickly to gain some latitude before the 40W, and if not...
15/1745 UTC 11.3N 34.4W T2.5/2.5 03L -- Atlantic
15/1145 UTC 11.4N 33.5W T2.5/2.5 90L
15/0615 UTC 12.0N 32.0W T2.0/2.0 90L
14/2315 UTC 11.7N 30.8W T1.5/1.5 90L

Maybe an incidence on the futur models track more souther and maybe a possible threat for the Windwards...?
Look at these coordinates...hope quickly to gain some latitude before the 40W, and if not...
15/1745 UTC 11.3N 34.4W T2.5/2.5 03L -- Atlantic
15/1145 UTC 11.4N 33.5W T2.5/2.5 90L
15/0615 UTC 12.0N 32.0W T2.0/2.0 90L
14/2315 UTC 11.7N 30.8W T1.5/1.5 90L


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- Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
Re: E.Carib Thread=Web Cams / Obs / Forecasts / Daily Weather
expat2carib wrote:Gustywind wrote:msbee wrote:stop! enough already!
Ana scoop:
Msbee...Meteo-France have already requiered an yellow alert for Guadeloupe and the Northern Leewards islands...
Back in Dominica after 2 days in St. Maarten. People in St. Maarten where obs on the situation. At least in Simpson Bay where multiple people were sitting on the bagel house terrace (Wifi) and discussing the "coming" systems.
Here in Dominica nothing. Nothing on the radio, newspapers NOTHING! This can make me angry. I don't know if I will be the one again shouting "The wolves are coming....the wolves are coming.
@Gusty. What's the code on Martinique?
Hi expatcarib2 glad to see you, green alert in Martinica, means no threat, but yellow in Guadeloupe and the Northern Leewards...Nothing in Dominica??? That's a joke!


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