Possible Gulf Develpoment Next Weekend???

[Javlin]

So am I Aric a little closer to home and 400+ miles to the Mouth of the Miss.

[Aric Dunn]

Very interesting feature indeed and the GOM waters are very warm. Something is going on. The satellite and radar show the rotation well. Could the mid-level rotation be making its way to the surface?

well yeah because there are surface obs plenty of them to support a circulation at the surface.. its weak and not well defined by no means right now buts its there, also radar out of key west shows it pretty clearly and since key west radar is in the middle of it the radar beans are not that far above the surface roughly < 5000 ft up. if a center takes shape then it gets interesting..

[Aric Dunn]

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE HAS BECOME
MORE CONCENTRATED TODAY OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE ADJACENT
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. PRESSURES REMAIN HIGH IN THIS AREA...
AND ANY ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.


well they have at least noticed it a little more today.. hehe

[xironman]

Very time dependent, but it has a look http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=24.78&lon=-82.67&zoom=1&type=Animation&info=vis

[weatherSnoop]

Gulf is looking a little crazy. Blob south of La has some spin w/ pops near center and of course the mess in the straights.
http://weather.myfoxtampabay.com/maps/W ... _gulf.html

[Aric Dunn]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/se/loop-rgb.html

[KWT]

This is a classic El Nino type Gulf development, I think this needs very close watching.

[TexWx]

I'm a little (15%) concerned about that little feature below Louisiana.

[srainhoutx]

Another great disco from Key West WFO...

000
FXUS62 KKEY 151803
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
203 PM EDT SAT AUG 15 2009

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF A WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL WAVE IS TRAVERSING
THE KEYS AND COASTAL WATERS. THE AXIS OF THE WAVE APPEARS TO BE
MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER KEYS AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS SOUTH OF THE
LOWER KEYS...WITH A BROAD CIRCULATION FROM AROUND 850 TO 700MB STILL
NOTICEABLE ON KEY WEST RADAR IN THE GENERAL VICINITY OF THE LOWER
KEYS. A SHEAR ZONE ALONG THE AXIS HAS BEEN EVIDENT ON KBYX RADAR
THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH NEAR SURFACE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OPPOSING
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. LOOKING AT BOTH THE KBYX AND KAMX RADARS...A
NORTHEASTWARD PROPAGATING WIND MAXIMUM FROM AROUND 2KFT TO 5KFT
SEEMS TO BE MOVING ALONG THE SHEAR LINE...WHICH MAY HAVE HELPED
INITIATE SOME OF THE STRONGER CELLS. THIS SHEAR ZONE HAS FORCED
SEVERAL VERY STRONG CELLS FROM 15 TO 40 MILES SOUTH OF THE LOWER
KEYS...INCLUDING AT LEAST THREE RELATIVELY DEEP MESOCYCLONES...
BASICALLY IN THE SAME GENERAL AREA...ONE OF WHICH TRIGGERED A MESO
ALERT. THE MESOS WERE FAIRLY SHORT LIVED...LASTING LESS THAT ONE HALF
HOUR. ALL OF THESE MESOCYCLONES WERE PRODUCING IMPRESSIVE
UPDRAFTS...WITH TOPS EXCEEDING 55KFT ABOVE THEM. THE SHEAR ZONE HAS
BEEN ALMOST STATIONARY FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...THUS THE
STRONGEST CELLS HAVE THANKFULLY REMAINED SOUTH OF THE LOWER KEYS.
EVEN WITH THE WORST SOUTH OF THE KEYS...AREAS ALONG THE LOWER KEYS
HAVE EXPERIENCED HEAVY RAIN WITHIN A RELATIVELY SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.
A SPOTTER ON CUDJOE KEY CALLED IN WITH 2 INCHES OF RAIN SINCE THE
BEGINNING OF THE EVENT EARLIER THIS MORNING. AN OFF DUTY NWS EMPLOYEE
ON BIG COPPITT KEY REPORTED ABOUT AN INCH OF STANDING WATER ON THE
LOWEST FLOOR OF HIS HOUSE...THE ACCUMULATION OF WATER POSSIBLY AIDED
BY 30MPH WINDS WHICH ACCOMPANIED THE HEAVER STORMS THAT TRAVERSED THE
LOWER KEYS.


.SHORT TERM...
THIS EVENING...AS STATED ABOVE...THE WORST OF THE CONVECTION HAS
REMAINED OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...THAT MAY NOT BE THE CASE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PASSAGE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE...AND IT IS WITHIN
POSSIBLE...BUT NOT PROBABLE...THAT THE LOWER KEYS GET CLIPPED BY ONE
OF THESE STRONGER CELLS. THE POSITIVE NEWS IS THAT THE WAVE HAS BEEN
WELL BEHAVED...VERY SLOWLY MOVING TOWARDS THE WEST AT NEAR 10 KNOTS.
IF THIS REMAINS THE CASE THE AXIS OF THE WAVE SHOULD BE WEST OF THE
LOWER KEYS BY AROUND 22Z...AND WITH IT THE STRONGER CELLS ALONG THE
SHEAR ZONE. THE PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WAVE CURRENTLY EXTEND EASTWARD AS FAR AS KEY LARGO AND POINTS
SOUTH...SO SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST UNTIL
AROUND 06Z UNTIL EVERYTHING CLEARS THE KEYS.

[dixiebreeze]

Good spin just off SW Florida coast:

http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radbl ... 9&smooth=0

[KWT]

Could get an invest soon if the convection carries on for another 12hrs or so.

[Sanibel]

Tropical rain band just passed over us. Gusty breezes then calm.


Looks like a twist:


http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=AMX&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

[caneman]

Impressive indeed. We're getting a good pounding from this system. Bears watching.....

[HouTXmetro]

I'm a little (15%) concerned about that little feature below Louisiana.

I wouldn't be. The Spin south of Louisiana looks like an upper level feature to me. But the feature near the keys is some definite rotation.

[Javlin]

Last frame looks interesting

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html

[Frank P]

Been watching that J ... system not getting all that much attention but overall cloud pattern right now from the last sat loop set is the best it's been...prob mostly all MLC but still got a nice little twist

[Javlin]

Yea Frank if you look at the CMC it goes in about Destin/Panama area and I think the GFS brings it to the Mouth of MS though much weaker than the CMC.

[caneman]

The last visible shot you can clearly see the hook shape taking place. Would think NHC will up its chances.

[Frank P]

Either case I expect us to get some nice rains out of it.... probably all we get but ya never know with these things.... if it could get its act together we could be in for a little more excitement... but right not, I'll take the rain..

[tolakram]

Looks to be winding down.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... ar_floater