ATL: TROPICAL STORM BILL (03L)

[robbielyn]

ok thanks for the clarification

[BensonTCwatcher]

I think your safe. I do energy modeling and it is far less complex that the fluid dynamics involved here, and we still need experienced folks involved at all stages to get results

[robbielyn]

Present core behavior on TD3 suggests development.

Looks like Ana and TD3 are connected.

Looks like brother and sister holding hands to me.

Looks like that frog with the long curled out tongue ready to suck ana into it mouth lol

[robbielyn]

Present core behavior on TD3 suggests development.

Looks like Ana and TD3 are connected.

Looks like brother and sister holding hands to me.

Looks like that frog with the long curled out tongue ready to suck ana into it mouth lol

[Scorpion]

[Gustywind]

[KWT]

Doesn't really look that impressive right now but a big burst over the center and that will look like a much better tropical system thats for sure.

[KWT]

Very impressive run again, major hurricane. Thats also just a small bit too far to the NE to be a major threat to the Leeward Islands but it still needs watching IMO because in that set-up if its 50-100 miles further south you have an issue.

[smw1981]

I think it was Derek Ortt (I think??) that posted last night that the 2 systems have to be 15 degrees apart or less for one to overtake the other (as my amateur self understood it!!). They still seem to be just about that, so we will definitely have to watch to see if TD3 catches her...

I suppose it all depends on speed...

It will be a long week for those of us addicted to S2k and living on any coast...

[Ivanhater]

[otowntiger]

12Z now out to 10 days. Moves future Bill into the Bahamas and it seems to hit a brick wall, pulling northward missing Florida.

A trough comes down at the last minute and picks up Bill and Claudette sending them Northward. Amazing if that verified. Talk about getting lucky....

A trough digging down and saving Florida! Wow that's never happened before! Seriously if you've been watching tropics for any length of time you'd know that was as common occurance as lightning in the summer thunderstorms .

[cycloneye]

Anyone has the 12z GFDL as I am not at my PC,and where iIam doesnt have it.Also what UKMET,NOGAPS have?

[Derek Ortt]

GFDL is not even close to the Caribbean

[Vandymit]

255

WHXX04 KWBC 151721

CHGQLM

ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER



NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR



TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 03L



INITIAL TIME 12Z AUG 15



DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT

REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD

NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC

OFFICIAL FORECAST.





FORECAST STORM POSITION



HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)



0 11.9 33.5 265./17.1

6 11.6 34.6 255./10.7

12 11.4 36.1 261./14.8

18 11.2 37.5 262./14.0

24 11.2 38.6 273./11.4

30 11.5 39.8 281./11.8

36 11.6 41.3 273./15.0

42 11.6 42.8 271./14.2

48 11.9 43.7 288./ 9.0

54 12.6 44.7 303./12.2

60 13.3 45.8 303./13.1

66 13.9 47.5 289./16.9

72 14.2 49.0 283./15.2

78 14.9 50.4 296./14.9

84 15.4 52.0 286./16.8

90 15.8 53.3 291./12.7

96 16.6 54.8 298./16.5

102 17.3 56.2 295./15.5

108 18.0 57.5 298./14.2

114 18.8 58.7 305./13.9

120 19.9 60.2 307./17.6

126 20.8 61.6 303./15.7

[DESTRUCTION5]

Both GFDL and HWRF go well NE of the Caribbean this run Luis..

[cycloneye]

Both GFDL and HWRF go well NE of the Caribbean this run Luis..

Ok thank you.

[KWT]

Whats also interesting is all the convection is lumped on the SW side. I remember seeing that with Katrina when it did its WSW dive, IMO this is going to do something very similar in the next 24hrs as the center is more likely to wobble towards the deeper convection on the west/south side.

[Tropicswatcher]

12 UKMET:Caribbean bound

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE ANALYSED POSITION : 10.9N 33.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL032009

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 15.08.2009 10.9N 33.7W WEAK
00UTC 16.08.2009 11.1N 35.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 16.08.2009 11.3N 39.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 17.08.2009 11.8N 41.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 17.08.2009 12.6N 45.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 18.08.2009 13.5N 49.1W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.08.2009 14.0N 52.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 19.08.2009 14.4N 56.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 19.08.2009 14.7N 59.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 20.08.2009 14.9N 62.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.08.2009 15.9N 66.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 21.08.2009 16.3N 69.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 21.08.2009 16.8N 71.7W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT

[Scorpion]

Whats also interesting is all the convection is lumped on the SW side. I remember seeing that with Katrina when it did its WSW dive, IMO this is going to do something very similar in the next 24hrs as the center is more likely to wobble towards the deeper convection on the west/south side.

Yep, once the center gets consolidated further south I think the models will change their tune significantly.

[Nimbus]

Convection appears to be starting to wrap around the center of future Bill. Some of the models are suggesting a savior trough for Florida but the center seems to be initializing awfully close to 11N now and the islands could really get hit hard with a low track. Anyone think the models are going to sweep the track left into the gulf over time?