#1468 Postby msbee » Sat Aug 15, 2009 3:02 pm
Derek's analysis of TD 3 or what we shall soon call Bill. he got my attention with that 95KT going right over us
500 UTC 8/15/2009 TROPICAL DEPRESSION 3 FORECAST #1
For official information, please refer to the National Hurricane Center or local emergency management officials.
Morning visible imagery shows a very well defined circulation with the low SW of the Cape Verde Islands. It is a depression.
The low has been moving south of due west this morning at 15-20KT. Models, for no reason that I can see, immediately slow this down to about 10-12KT. The only model that has a good handle on the current motion is the LBAR. Track is quick to the west for the first 24-36 hours. Thereafter, guidance is showing a weakness in the ridge to the north, which should allow for more of a WNW turn. Unfortunately, it does not appear as if this turn will come soon enough to spare the Leeward Islands an encounter with this cyclone.
Convection has decreased this morning. WV shows some SAL intrusion from the NE. I suspect this will only last until the next wave comes off of Africa as it will take the brunt of the easterly wind surge. No intensification is indicated today. This is expected to be followed by steady intensification. For now, I will keep the cyclone just below category 3 status. However, 95KT should be sufficient to get the attention of everyone.
Initial: 11.5N 33.3W 30KT
12 Hour: 11.2N 36.8W 30KT
24 Hour: 11.3N 40.5W 35KT
36 Hour: 12.0N 43.8W 45KT
48 Hour: 12.7N 47.0W 55KT
72 Hour: 14.5N 53.0W 70KT
USE WITH EXTREME CAUTION AS FOLLOWING IS SUBJECT TO LARGE ERROR
96 Hour: 16.5N 59.0W 90KT
120 Hour: 18.5N 64.5W 95KT
Next Forecast: 0300 UTC
Forecaster: Ortt
0 likes