ATL: TROPICAL STORM BILL (03L)

[RL3AO]

[KWT]

Can see the center quite well there with the convection wrapping around the center, if anything it might be a little further south then where the NHC have it, close to 11N.

[MGC]

One thing for sure, Bill has a large cyclonic envelope. Gonna be a big boy as Bill's circulation take up a good 5 degrees or about 300NM....Big Bill? Bad Bill? Not liking the looks of this cyclone. I'm going to go out on a limb and forecast the first major of the season with Bill. You folks in the Islands need to pay particular attention to Bill IMO.....MGC

Of course the above opinion is that of MGC and is not an official forecast.......

[tolakram]

If these shear tendency maps are correct the shear around Bill has been dropping rapidly. I would expect we might see a pretty big blowup of convection soon.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8shtZ.html

[KWT]

Yeah the models also seem to be suggesting this is going to be a major hurricane as well.

I'm just waiting for the next convective blow-up, surely won't be too long in coming though it'll need to develop an inner core before it can develop more rapidly given its a large storm.

[somethingfunny]

One thing for sure, Bill has a large cyclonic envelope. Gonna be a big boy as Bill's circulation take up a good 5 degrees or about 300NM....Big Bill? Bad Bill? Not liking the looks of this cyclone. I'm going to go out on a limb and forecast the first major of the season with Bill. You folks in the Islands need to pay particular attention to Bill IMO.....MGC

Of course the above opinion is that of MGC and is not an official forecast.......

Oh groan....you've reminded me of all the media headline puns we'll be seeing soon...."Paying the Bills....Bill Comes To Collect....One Nasty Bill..............."

It is huge. I don't know where it's going to end up or how strong it becomes, but it's going to be very bad.

[KWT]

Ok well the 18z is coming out now, heres it out to just 6hrs:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_006m.gif

[bob rulz]

One thing for sure, Bill has a large cyclonic envelope. Gonna be a big boy as Bill's circulation take up a good 5 degrees or about 300NM....Big Bill? Bad Bill? Not liking the looks of this cyclone. I'm going to go out on a limb and forecast the first major of the season with Bill. You folks in the Islands need to pay particular attention to Bill IMO.....MGC

Of course the above opinion is that of MGC and is not an official forecast.......

Oh groan....you've reminded me of all the media headline puns we'll be seeing soon...."Paying the Bills....Bill Comes To Collect....One Nasty Bill..............."

It is huge. I don't know where it's going to end up or how strong it becomes, but it's going to be very bad.

I expect we'll be seeing people protesting in the streets of Miami with "KILL BILL" signs soon.

[KWT]

Still reminds me a lot of a big ole WPAC storm, big circulation, watch for the formation of a smaller core in that large circulation in the next 24-36hrs, thats when things will become more interesting. Till then only steady strengthening is likely IMO.

[hurricanefloyd5]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
245 PM EDT SAT AUG 15 2009


THEN EVEN MORE UNCERTAINTY NEXT WEEKEND. OFFICIAL NHC/HPC TRACK
BRINGS ANOTHER TC TOWARDS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS SAT WHICH PORTENDS A
FAIRLY CLOSE APPROACH TO THE FL PENINSULA. HOWEVER...IT IS VERY
IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THE INHERENT ERRORS UNCERTAINTIES OF
TROPICAL CYCLONE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS AT LONGER RANGES.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC/TPC PRODUCTS.

[Bailey1777]

As close as Bill is to Ana shouldn't it make it alot easier to tell what he's going to do or go based on what Ana does?

[Wx_Warrior]

Not a fan of the 6 or 18...UKMET either.

EURO is the way of life!!!

[KWT]

Yeah but the ECM has done a very poor job with the forward speed so far, its really been awful actually...I'll put up the details later on, hopefuly we get the 0z best track before I go to sleep but lets just say even based on the 21z position, its going to be at least 200 miles too far east, which at 24hrs out really is quite poor...esp when forward speed is very important factor in whether Bill recurves rught away.

[KWT]

Well to some extent that is true Ana is a broad guideline, more so of the conditions ahea of it in terms of shear. However Bill is a lot bigger and is soon going to be a lot stronger so its going to be effected by steering at a totally different level.

[KWT]

Just north of the 12z position so far with Bill:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_060m.gif

[Brent]

[KWT]

Heading north of the islands again on this run it appears, does seem to be a trend on the GFS lately, will be worth watching to see how it verifies.

[Brent]

Passing north of the islands:

[gatorcane]

well the trend with the models to today is more to the right --- looks like more of them have this missing the islands to the north. Good news for those in the Leewards, so far.

[Cookie]

thanks for the great posts and updates, have just read through 20 pages, you guys make hurricane tracking great and really intresting readying.