ATL: TROPICAL STORM BILL (03L)

KWT · #1321 Postby **KWT** » Sat Aug 15, 2009 5:11 pm

Yep though the only one I believe is the GFS because the other two that miss the Leewards are way too slow.

Derek Ortt · #1322 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Sat Aug 15, 2009 5:14 pm

its passing about 70 miles north of the Leewards. Well within the margin of error for sure

KWT · #1323 Postby **KWT** » Sat Aug 15, 2009 5:15 pm

yep its still SW of the CMC and the ECM.

Derek what do you think of the trend towards the ECM?

Bocadude85 · #1324 Postby **Bocadude85** » Sat Aug 15, 2009 5:17 pm

Looks like the 18z GFS run is going to send bill out to sea

Derek Ortt · #1325 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Sat Aug 15, 2009 5:18 pm

KWT wrote:yep its still SW of the CMC and the ECM.

Derek what do you think of the trend towards the ECM?

its not trending towards the EC. It is a different trough that takes the storm out to sea in the GFS vs the EC.

EC is now recurving at ~68W

#1326 Postby **gatorcane** » Sat Aug 15, 2009 5:21 pm

seems that now that Bill is TS, all models are sending him more towards the weakness....and more right.

Yesterday at this time, they were more towards the Caribbean and NE Leewards --- maybe if this continues the ECMWF will verify.

KWT · #1327 Postby **KWT** » Sat Aug 15, 2009 5:21 pm

I wonder if all the trough does is slow down Bill enough till the next ridge builds in, we don't want that as it would give Bill a better chance of making it.

#1328 Postby **gatorcane** » Sat Aug 15, 2009 5:22 pm

wow 18Z GFS way right of 12Z. Big trough along the Eastern CONUS now swoops in and saves the day as what usually happens with approaching canes from the east...Bill looks like it will recurve safely out to sea folks if this run is correct.

Great news in my opinion.

Scorpion · #1329 Postby **Scorpion** » Sat Aug 15, 2009 5:24 pm

Keep in mind that the vast majority of TC's in Bill's area hit the US. Chances are it won't be a fish.

Bocadude85 · #1330 Postby **Bocadude85** » Sat Aug 15, 2009 5:25 pm

Since the models do not seem to be getting Bills speed correct.. how much farther west would Bill go before the trough?

KWT · #1331 Postby **KWT** » Sat Aug 15, 2009 5:25 pm

IF the latest guidence is correct Gatorcane...

I was looking through the DEan thread, and most of the comments were "looks like its an east coast threat" yet we know the models rather badly underdid the upper highs in the end.

Website · #1332 Postby **Brent** » Sat Aug 15, 2009 5:30 pm

Derek Ortt · #1333 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Sat Aug 15, 2009 5:30 pm

looks like the trillion dollar storm may be making a comeback in the GFS

seems like we are flip flopping to the east and west of New England in all of the GFS runs. Too soon to say if that means anything though

KWT · #1334 Postby **KWT** » Sat Aug 15, 2009 5:32 pm

What heading for the NE like Long Island hurricane?

It'd certainly be an interesting set-up to see and its bound to happen again someday, esp given the NE haven't had a big hit for a long time now.

#1335 Postby **gatorcane** » Sat Aug 15, 2009 5:33 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:looks like the trillion dollar storm may be making a comeback in the GFS

Seems like models are trending away from this every even making it to the US and trending more towards less of a Leewards impact.

It may be a major cane at some point but without land to impact we'll just watch it and wave at it as it moves comfortably offshore.

KWT · #1336 Postby **KWT** » Sat Aug 15, 2009 5:34 pm

Gatorcane, true but the only model that has a good grip on the forward speed is GFS and that slows it right down due to a trough that has not really been modelled by any other GFS run bar this one, and we do knows its the 18z...

#1337 Postby **smw1981** » Sat Aug 15, 2009 5:35 pm

I agree, Bill is going to blow up (because there is not much to stop him) and then he will be affected by the steering currents completely differently than Ana. I just hope both of them don't hit the islands days apart from each other...that could be catastrophic to them. TS Watches are already up for some of the Virgin Islands for Ana...we should know by tomorrow night what is in store for them from both of these systems...

Of course..this is just my opinion and not official...

Derek Ortt · #1338 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Sat Aug 15, 2009 5:35 pm

after 204 hours, it is at a lon south of LI and a lat equal to about Charleston

Scorpion · #1339 Postby **Scorpion** » Sat Aug 15, 2009 5:36 pm

gatorcane wrote:
Derek Ortt wrote:looks like the trillion dollar storm may be making a comeback in the GFS

Seems like models are trending away from this every even making it to the US and trending more towards less of a Leewards impact.

It may be a major cane at some point but without land to impact we'll just watch it and wave at it as it moves comfortably offshore.

Are you serious? It's more than a week out and any small change in the trough could mean the difference between Florida and Bermuda.

#1340 Postby **gatorcane** » Sat Aug 15, 2009 5:36 pm

KWT wrote:Gatorcane, true but the only model that has a good grip on the forward speed is GFS and that slows it right down due to a trough that has not really been modelled by any other GFS run bar this one, and we do knows its the 18z...

I agree models may change and it is the 18Z ---but you have to admit, the models are trending in a good way for us, more out to sea. Things can change again with the next set of models but there is definitely more of a trend to move it north of the Caribbean and East of the CONUS in the long-range.

ATL: TROPICAL STORM BILL (03L)

Re: ATL:TROPICAL STORM BILL (Models)

Re:

Re: ATL:TROPICAL STORM BILL (Models)

Re: ATL:TROPICAL STORM BILL (Models)

Re:

Re: Re:

Re:

Who is online