ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA (02L)

[Stormsfury]

The thing about Ana is that if she strengthens more quickly than forecast, she is likely to move more WNW and take more of a path into the Bahamas and maybe FL.

Thats why I am a little worried about the fact that she is maintaining nice convection that is starting to cover her center again. If she can do this well in a bad environment, she can really strengthen in about 12-24 or so hours I think when she moves out of the "death zone". She can strengthen faster than expected and change the track. Anything can happen.

The interesting thing about Ana here is that the low level center outraced the convection a bit. Look at the recent satellite data, and the fact that upper level outflow is becoming more established over the cyclone. What is holding Ana in check is that the system is not vertically stacked.

[Evil Jeremy]

The thing about Ana is that if she strengthens more quickly than forecast, she is likely to move more WNW and take more of a path into the Bahamas and maybe FL.

Thats why I am a little worried about the fact that she is maintaining nice convection that is starting to cover her center again. If she can do this well in a bad environment, she can really strengthen in about 12-24 or so hours I think when she moves out of the "death zone". She can strengthen faster than expected and change the track. Anything can happen.

I do not think we will have any problems from Ana or Bill for that matter here in South Florida.

Why do you think Bill might not effect us? Its over a week out, anything can happen with it, and you never know what might happen. These are the tropics, anything is possible.

[KWT]

Who knows what it'll do but right now its still having a hard time keeping the convection near the center, its done this before mind you and survived.

IF this does manage to dogde the islands then this has to be a big threat down the line.

[Ivanhater]

[AdamFirst]

I'm on the road right now. Going to be an interesting week upcoming, I'm heading back down to Florida from Pennsylvania and I may have to dodge two storms incoming.

[Bocadude85]

Why do you think Bill might not effect us? Its over a week out, anything can happen with it, and you never know what might happen. These are the tropics, anything is possible.[/quote]



I agree that anything can happen in the tropics... but it seems that the SE Fla coast has been protected from landfalls from the east for years with this persistent east coast trough.. and judging by the models that will most likely be the case this time also

[Evil Jeremy]

Ana has some nice convection firing up right now, and I think Ana will continue to burst convection as nighttime comes. Ana is a nocturnal storm.

[KWT]

Ana is really trying to catch up its convection again, will be interesting to see whether it is able to strengthen, if it does then a slightly higher track then the models are currently showing is possible.

This now has my full attention, as does Bill...two big hits could occur within a week in the Atlantic IMO...

[senorpepr]

082
UZNT13 KWBC 152242
XXAA 65222 99174 70521 04272 99012 27631 08528 00106 26625 08026
92791 21613 08534 85522 18013 09532 70166 09857 11030 50589 05359
07512 40760 16560 07510 30970 31748 28004 25097 41563 21011 20244
537// 17020 88999 77162 28598 499//
31313 09608 82205
51515 10190 15424
61616 NOAA9 WX02A ANA OB 05
62626 SPL 1737N05220W 2219 MBL WND 08029 AEV 20801 DLM WND 11011
011152 WL150 08026 084 REL 1735N05213W 220459 SPG 1737N05220W 221
935 =
XXBB 65228 99174 70521 04272 00012 27631 11939 22008 22850 18013
33762 13623 44730 12056 55673 07850 66661 07662 77648 06456 88620
04257 99592 01835 11581 01257 22561 00537 33527 02546 44507 04938
55497 05761 66482 07161 77475 07776 88456 10157 99437 11778 11407
15577 22399 16560 33393 16975 44388 17573 55371 19968 66364 20978
77356 21960 88347 23177 99337 24566 11331 25571 22325 26571 33291
33524 44269 37356 55246 42364 66222 48760 77203 52966 88179 597//
99152 63944
21212 00012 08528 11002 08026 22990 08531 33938 08035 44899 09532
55880 09535 66850 09532 77706 11031 88601 10032 99546 11520 11487
07009 22471 05511 33456 07011 44418 06011 55401 07510 66385 06510
77280 19003 88251 21010 99238 19016 11224 19015 22211 15515 33190
18023 44174 17031 55170 20022 66167 25539 77162 28598
31313 09608 82205
51515 10190 15424
61616 NOAA9 WX02A ANA OB 05
62626 SPL 1737N05220W 2219 MBL WND 08029 AEV 20801 DLM WND 11011
011152 WL150 08026 084 REL 1735N05213W 220459 SPG 1737N05220W 221
935 =

[senorpepr]

UZNT13 KWBC 152302
XXAA 65222 99190 70533 04293 99015 27228 08017 00129 26023 08020
92814 21631 09528 85545 18021 09522 70187 09650 10525 50590 06520
11013 40761 16958 10004 30971 31975 27504 25097 41970 23017 20245
533// 20524 88999 77999
31313 09608 82220
51515 10190 15424
61616 NOAA9 WX02A ANA OB 06
62626 SPL 1899N05334W 2235 MBL WND 08523 AEV 20801 DLM WND 13510
014152 WL150 08020 082 REL 1897N05330W 222052 SPG 1899N05334W 223
526 =
XXBB 65228 99190 70533 04293 00015 27228 11850 18021 22659 07257
33627 04456 44610 03260 55591 01226 66546 01933 77527 03926 88511
05356 99499 06519 11473 08732 22454 10756 33447 11361 44438 12550
55431 12966 66423 14175 77418 14573 88414 15162 99409 15564 11401
16758 22390 17967 33370 20968 44363 21957 55350 23959 66344 24967
77334 26562 88326 27576 99280 35573 11203 52763 22152 64938
21212 00015 08017 11962 09530 22939 09530 33898 08523 44850 09522
55647 11029 66527 12513 77443 09503 88300 28004 99270 22514 11239
23521 22203 21024 33193 19030 44176 19532
31313 09608 82220
51515 10190 15424
61616 NOAA9 WX02A ANA OB 06
62626 SPL 1899N05334W 2235 MBL WND 08523 AEV 20801 DLM WND 13510
014152 WL150 08020 082 REL 1897N05330W 222052 SPG 1899N05334W 223
526 =

[Sanibel]

Ana's back west again. How this relates to track and the islands will play out more south as the models are trending I guess.

Bill has plenty of time to turn, but how this plays out on Bill and the predicted recurve should also be interesting.

[KWT]

Very true, though I wonder if the convection can catch up with the circulation for any length of time whether it'll jog north a touch.

Still just about below 15N, I think the islands to get a hit would be a pretty good call for now though.

[Annie Oakley]

Been wondering where Hurakan is...hope he is okay-we need him lol!

[southerngale]

Been wondering where Hurakan is...hope he is okay-we need him lol!

He's fine. He'll be back on here the middle of next week.

[senorpepr]

UZNT13 KWBC 152315
XXAA 65231 99165 70504 04260 99012 26824 ///// 00106 26021 09025
92790 21214 10030 85521 18229 10036 70163 09217 10538 50588 05356
07523 40760 16350 07523 30971 30950 09016 25097 41361 17513 20245
53561 16521 15425 643// 19502 88999 77999
31313 09608 82251
61616 NOAA9 WX02A ANA OB 07
62626 SPL 1655N05053W 2306 LST WND 017 MBL WND 09026 AEV 20801 DL
M WND 10520 010145 WL150 09024 091 REL 1653N05043W 225114 SPG 165
5N05053W 230614 =
XXBB 65238 99165 70504 04260 00012 26824 11914 20613 22850 18229
33803 15826 44761 14060 55731 11857 66717 11062 77695 08812 88678
08456 99660 07029 11652 06858 22646 06250 33622 04460 44611 03856
55581 01862 66554 00763 77541 02356 88532 03158 99527 03549 11478
07948 22471 08356 33462 09167 44450 10538 55445 11129 66415 13958
77405 15545 88395 16757 99383 18122 11351 22350 22329 25758 33303
30156 44267 37356 55242 43164 66224 47750 77194 55162 88170 619//
99145 65150
21212 00012 ///// 11010 09023 22975 09528 33850 10036 44651 10545
55599 08537 66514 08528 77433 06019 88414 08021 99381 08016 11359
06512 22314 10011 33290 09013 44265 13506 55255 17510 66231 19514
77206 16021 88182 16527 99170 15034 11160 18007
31313 09608 82251
61616 NOAA9 WX02A ANA OB 07
62626 SPL 1655N05053W 2306 LST WND 017 MBL WND 09026 AEV 20801 DL
M WND 10520 010145 WL150 09024 091 REL 1653N05043W 225114 SPG 165
5N05053W 230614 =

[Annie Oakley]

Been wondering where Hurakan is...hope he is okay-we need him lol!

He's fine. He'll be back on here the middle of next week.

Thanks Southerngale! Comforting.....as all of you are....

[KWT]

Lets just hope that the NHC track is correct and the system doesn't decide to just plow westwards, because if it does there is untapped waters in the Caribbean. Whats the shear prog like there?

[senorpepr]

UZNT13 KWBC 152328
XXAA 65231 99170 70482 04178 99014 26022 09520 00119 25017 09022
92801 20802 ///// 85531 17615 ///// 70179 10260 11545 50589 06156
08023 40761 15764 10016 30971 30925 ///// 25098 40747 12016 20246
53757 16016 15425 651// 35512 88999 77999
31313 09608 82308
61616 NOAA9 WX02A ANA OB 08
62626 SPL 1706N04831W 2323 MBL WND 09026 AEV 20801 DLM WND 11522
013145 WL150 09022 091 REL 1702N04821W 230853 SPG 1706N04831W 232
323 =
XXBB 65238 99170 70482 04178 00014 26022 11946 21407 22850 17615
33792 16850 44747 14056 55731 13262 66634 04058 77592 00433 88551
01362 99480 07746 11439 10960 22424 12941 33401 15764 44349 22764
55320 28356 66310 29323 77287 33132 88275 34956 99228 46332 11195
55158 22173 615// 33145 65744
21212 00014 09520 11989 09027 22955 09030 33817 11529 44655 11547
55609 10039 66575 11535 77536 08027 88521 09023 99482 08019 11460
10020 22416 09018 33323 13023 44251 12016 55205 16017 66184 15513
77170 20019 88166 18014 99158 17001 11156 34010 22154 34016 33153
33516
31313 09608 82308
61616 NOAA9 WX02A ANA OB 08
62626 SPL 1706N04831W 2323 MBL WND 09026 AEV 20801 DLM WND 11522
013145 WL150 09022 091 REL 1702N04821W 230853 SPG 1706N04831W 232
323 =

[butch]

000
WTNT32 KNHC 152331
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ANA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022009
800 PM AST SAT AUG 15 2009

...ANA RACING WESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST.
EUSTATIUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN
36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ANA.
ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF
THESE AREAS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ANA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.4 WEST OR ABOUT
730 MILES...1180 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

ANA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THIS MOTION COULD BRING THE CENTER OF ANA NEAR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
ON MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...14.4N 50.4W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.

FORECASTER AVILA

[fci]

[quote="Bocadude85"]Why do you think Bill might not effect us? Its over a week out, anything can happen with it, and you never know what might happen. These are the tropics, anything is possible.[/quote]



I agree that anything can happen in the tropics... but it seems that the SE Fla coast has been protected from landfalls from the east for years with this persistent east coast trough.. and judging by the models that will most likely be the case this time also[/quote]

OK, my -removed- hat has Ana going south of PR/DR and Bill recurving.
Don't know if that will be the case but it is what I am selfishly rooting for.

However, Frances and Jeanne and Katrina quickly dispel your theory of SE FL coast (I presume since you are in Boca you think of yourself there) being protected from landfalls.

I don't find what you are stating to be correct although I am all in favor of it!