ATL: TROPICAL STORM BILL (03L)

[KWT]

I certainly do agree with you, the models are trending away from the US and Leeward islands but until I see it either slow down or lift up then I'm still fearful for the N.Leewards

[Brent]

Just south of Nova Scotia:

[Bocadude85]

Did the models get the forward speed right this time? Or are the still too slow?

[Derek Ortt]

no trillion dollar... sharp turn after 200 hours

how inaccurate are these? Well... many 120 hour runs had Ike missing the GOM

[KWT]

What will be interesting to see is whether the 0z ECM run is quicker then it has been as it must surely speed up as it can't keep being a silly amount behind!

I'm still really worried about a Leeward hit, granted my worry of a US strike has decreased, I'm still reminded a lot of Dean and the way sooo many thought it would recurve/east coast threat at one point.

Derek, hard question but what would be the rough risk of a US strike at the moment?

[Wx_Warrior]

Lots of egg on faces if EURO is even close to being right.

[KWT]

Well fair play if its right...

BUT its going to bust in terms of verification anyway, already the 0z runs have been WAY too slow so if its right it'll probably be for the wrong reasons.

[Stormsfury]

Still reminds me a lot of a big ole WPAC storm, big circulation, watch for the formation of a smaller core in that large circulation in the next 24-36hrs, thats when things will become more interesting. Till then only steady strengthening is likely IMO.

Yes indeed. A large monsoon trough helped spark the large circulation envelope of Bill, which is less common in the ATL than in the WPAC, but that's what struck me the last few nights about the whole process of Bill's organization.

[Bocadude85]

no trillion dollar... sharp turn after 200 hours

how inaccurate are these? Well... many 120 hour runs had Ike missing the GOM

Do you think the models are still to slow with this system? Or do you believe Bill will miss the islands to the north and the CONUS to the east?

[Emmett_Brown]

I know that Bill and Ana are 2 completely different storms with completely different synoptic setups, but I am struck by the relentless westard march of the Ana models run after run, and wonder if a similar event might unfold for Bill.

[Ivanhater]

[Derek Ortt]

please, questions about the forecast in the thread in analysis forum. Easier for me to answer there

[Scorpion]

Bill looks primed for big things tonight.

[Steve H.]

18Z GFS is junk. Models need to resolve issues upstream before they can get a handle on anything. Maybe Monday.

[KWT]

Well this morning I thought I'd save a few runs from the various models that were to the right of the other models, namely the CMC/ECM.

I placed the center on the 24hrs charts as following:

ECM: 32/12
CMC: 33/11

So we are nearly at 0z now and we for a fact that both solutions are a good bit too slow at least for the first 24hrs. This is important given they are the furtherest east and thus it seems they feel the weakness stronger. The 18z GFS also recurves but for a difference reason. The 0z ECM/CMC both recurved due to the weakness that is currently due north of Ana.

The weakness is forecasted to strengthen over the next 48-72hrs and this leads the ECM and CMC to start the recurve process. However if the system is past it then it will not recurve, or at least not as sharply as those models show.

Therefore this is a bigger threat to the Leewards, and despite what the models have done most storms in this region tend to strike the Leeward to some extent or bend back west eventually...

So in conclusion, though in the Leeward islands should remember until the ECM/cMC speed up thier solutions the risk is probably still very high.

[Ivanhater]

I still find it difficult for Bill to recurve out to sea given the very low latitude. But we will see

[Scorpion]

I cannot find a storm around this location, moving W to WSW, that did not impact the islands.

[Normandy]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html

Shows the new convective burst occurring between 10-11 N. There still seems to be some slight WSW movement but its looks like its flattening out. Bill is likely to consolidate a bit further south than the current forecast track, and if any wsw motion continues for an extended period of time the islands have a big problem heading there way.

[Bocadude85]

Wow Bill really is a huge system... convection is popping nicely also

[Scorpion]

I still find it difficult for Bill to recurve out to sea given the very low latitude. But we will see

I agree. This is mid August, I just don't see it happening.