ATL: TROPICAL STORM BILL (03L)

[KWT]

That convection is developing south of the NHC track, thats suggestive that unless its getting sheared from the north, its center is probably south of 11N!

Going to really curve up quickly to avoid the Leeward Islands if that is the case...

[KWT]

Well the ECM/CMC are too slow, so unless the 0z cycle speeds this up then they are probably curving it away for a different weakness then the GFS as Derek said.

I too find it very tough to believe it can miss the islands, though it has happened before.

[tolakram]

You know what I think about climatology, but Bill is below every other storm but one if that's accurate.

[Scorpion]

I see the vast majority of those formed at a higher latitude or were already moving WNW at 35 W.

[wxman57]

GFS, ECMWF and Canadian now all recurve Bill east of the U.S. That would be good news. Now, if it could only miss the NE Caribbean. Still a long way out there and not much confidence in the long-term forecast.

[KWT]

I used the NOAA historical tracks and came up with a list:

Dog 1951 (Carribean)
Esther (Recurve at 70W...but it was already moving NW at this point)
Able 1952 (Hit N.Carolina)
Carol 1953 (Newfoundland)
Dora 1964 (hit N.Florida
Frederic 1979 (Hit the Gulf!)
Allen 1980 (Hit south Texas)
Erin 2001 (recurve, Newfoundland though as well?)
Frances 2004 (Florida)
Dean 2007 (Yucatan)

Those are the closest matches in August and September.

The 0z runs will be interesting to watch, esp if Bill is still heading WSW.

[KWT]

Yep but two of them are now going to verify Wxman57, both the CMC and ECM are both coming in quite a bit too slow. I'm not sure about the 12z run, I'll have the verifications tomorrow bout them...

BUT the 0z runs were about 3 (CMC) and 4 (ECM) degrees east of Bills actual position...thats a big error at 24hrs!

[Air Force Met]

I cannot find a storm around this location, moving W to WSW, that did not impact the islands.

I found 6 out of 13 that didn't...given the criteria of August storms/TS or Cat 1/w-wnw/within 120nm of current location.

Take TS's only and its 5 of 12.

Carol, Dora, Frances and Andrew are some of the notable exceptions.

[fci]

One thing for sure, Bill has a large cyclonic envelope. Gonna be a big boy as Bill's circulation take up a good 5 degrees or about 300NM....Big Bill? Bad Bill? Not liking the looks of this cyclone. I'm going to go out on a limb and forecast the first major of the season with Bill. You folks in the Islands need to pay particular attention to Bill IMO.....MGC

Of course the above opinion is that of MGC and is not an official forecast.......

Oh groan....you've reminded me of all the media headline puns we'll be seeing soon...."Paying the Bills....Bill Comes To Collect....One Nasty Bill..............."

It is huge. I don't know where it's going to end up or how strong it becomes, but it's going to be very bad.

I expect we'll be seeing people protesting in the streets of Miami with "KILL BILL" signs soon.

Don't forget to add that they will be clanging pots and pans too.

[Air Force Met]

GFS, ECMWF and Canadian now all recurve Bill east of the U.S. That would be good news. Now, if it could only miss the NE Caribbean. Still a long way out there and not much confidence in the long-term forecast.

We've been forecasting Bill (well...90L) to go north of the Islands...and now that it looks like it will get stronger...sooner...I think its a good chance it will feel the weakness.

That's why I am more worried about Ana.

[Derek Ortt]

HWRF takes this WNW after just 12-24 hours. has this at 14/45 at 18Z Monday

[KWT]

GFDL does the same as well derek, moves slightly north of west by 18hrs.

Seems too slow for the first 36hrs, it does speed it up later but the first 36-48hrs sees this averaging probably about 11-12kts.

[shah8]

Isn't Bill's continued strengthening and continued progress westward an indication that the high to it's north is increasing in strenth or also progressing westward?

[The Eye Wall]

Hi there everybody. I'm new here, so forgive me if this has been brought up. Since the last year's season, the CMC has since been tweeked. How has it performed vs. other models? Just curious. Regardless, I think last year, I wanna say the HWRF and Euro and to some extent the GFDL out shown all the rest...especially forecasting Hurricane Ike. Wasn't it the HWRF that was the habitual "outlier" that showed a hit on Houston/Galveston?

Anyway, here's to good discussions!

[KWT]

AFM...very interesting but its got quite a way to climb and I remember SO many storms in this position progged to go NW before the islands, only for them to smash right on through, Ike and Dean are the most recent example, but there is also Frances, Ivan, to some extent Katrina before its WSW turn.

Of course the models do seem to be coming into agreement so its hard to deny that fact.

Upper high still driving WSW, out to about 40W.

[CrazyC83]

GFS, ECMWF and Canadian now all recurve Bill east of the U.S. That would be good news. Now, if it could only miss the NE Caribbean. Still a long way out there and not much confidence in the long-term forecast.

There would still be Bermuda and Atlantic Canada to worry about...

[KWT]

Certainly and not one of the storms ever in this position in August/September within 65 miles has totally avoided land, they've all hit land at some point, be it Mexico right upto Newfoundland.

[Brent]

[KWT]

That seems to show the center pretty much where the NHC put it at the time that was taken. Since then the convection to the south has blown up and makes it very interesting to watch.

By the way steering currents still WSW for a little while yet...weakness is starting to develop further west BUT for now the high is still holding as shown by Ana's 275 motion. As the high weakens it should shift its shape and allow Bill to lift out a little...However the models are cack with such features at times.

[Bocadude85]

That seems to show the center pretty much where the NHC put it at the time that was taken. Since then the convection to the south has blown up and makes it very interesting to watch.

By the way steering currents still WSW for a little while yet...weakness is starting to develop further west BUT for now the high is still holding as shown by Ana's 275 motion. As the high weakens it should shift its shape and allow Bill to lift out a little...However the models are cack with such features at times.

The question is how much will Bill lift out.. as much as I would like to think Bill will miss the caribbean and US I still think we could see the models shift back to the west like we have seen with many other systems.