Possible Gulf Develpoment Next Weekend???

[Ptarmigan]

If that cluster of cloud holds up around Florida tonight, it could develop. Does anyone know about this cluster of clouds in the Central Gulf?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-rgb.html

http://adds.aviationweather.noaa.gov/sa ... &itype=vis

Many storms that hit Texas form in the Gulf of Mexico, from Audrey, Alicia, and Allison.

[Aric Dunn]

The area circled is the where a broad circulation looks to be forming.. although right now the surface winds in the area show some circulation .. its broad ans weak.... none the less there has been a organizing trend all day.. pressure are dropping and we just need it all to work down to the surface..
NWs radar out of tampa showing some pre banding features rotating around a broad circ just west to wsw of Ft myers..
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... W&loop=yes

[ronjon]

It's funny this was the general area that the GFDL was showing development during 99Ls runs a couple of days ago. I believe NOGAPs also showed some development in this area a few days ago. Looks like some impressive rainfall total over SE FL today - big batch of convection looks like it might be drawn in from Cuba too.

http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/southeast_loop.php

[srainhoutx]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 152331
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT AUG 15 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM ANA...LOCATED ABOUT 735 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS...AND ON TROPICAL STORM BILL...LOCATED ABOUT 820 MILES
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO IS PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
INTERACTING WITH A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THIS ACTIVITY HAS
BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONCENTRATED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO WHERE SURFACE PRESSURES ARE BEGINNING TO FALL. THERE ARE NO
SIGNS OF A SURFACE CIRCULATION AT THIS TIME AND ANY ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON
SUNDAY. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM ANA ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER
WTNT32 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT2. FORECAST/ADVISORIES
ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT22 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER
MIATCMAT2.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM BILL ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTNT33 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT3.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT23 KNHC AND
UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT3.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/KIMBERLAIN

[Aric Dunn]

vorticity is increasing.. and low level convergence as high as both ANA and Bill .. and a very nicely placed upper ridge is sitting right on top of it..

[Aric Dunn]

at this rate... at the 2am update ... they may have to lets just say re-word the outlook .... lol and not use the same one from 2pm.... lol

by 2 am if trends continue we are to be looking at a system closely resembling a TD... lol

I guess im the only one watching this unfold in front of our eyes.... lol

tampa radar is very impressive.... its just lighting up west of ft. Meyers where a circ is probably taking shape..

[clfenwi]

SAB gave an estimate:
15/2345 UTC 25.7N 82.9W T1.0/1.0 INVEST -- Atlantic

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/tdpositions.html

Not an invest in ATCF at this time, however.

(edited to add link)

[Aric Dunn]

SAB gave an estimate:
15/2345 UTC 25.7N 82.9W T1.0/1.0 INVEST -- Atlantic

Not an invest in ATCF at this time, however.

interesting.. whats that link..

there is a floater over it now..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/float3.html

[Frank P]

Naw, your not the only one watching it... I don't expect much from it but a TD is certainly not out of the question all things considered... I watch em, esp in the GOM moving towards me, because you NEVER know with these systems... I'd much rather watch this small system try to develop than to be tracking a Monster type storm like Katrina barrelling right at me... as I'm sure everyone would agree...

[Aric Dunn]

I think you all will like this...

the NWS-WRF model develops a low from all this in 10 to 12 hours.. then a landfall in the panhandle by about 24 hrs.. not a very long time ... but plenty for a ts

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mlb/wrf/cz.html

[Frank P]

I think you all will like this...

the NWS-WRF model develops a low from all this in 10 to 12 hours.. then a landfall in the panhandle by about 24 hrs.. not a very long time ... but plenty for a ts

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mlb/wrf/cz.html

Thats almost a NNW track... make that more of a NW track where it would have more time over water and who knows...

[Alacane2]

Since it has been labeled as an Invest on the floater page, does that mean it will become 91L soon?

[Aric Dunn]

Since it has been labeled as an Invest on the floater page, does that mean it will become 91L soon?

not always.. but this will probably be an invest soon...

[clfenwi]

It is now.

AL, 91, 2009081600, , BEST, 0, 260N, 830W, 25, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

[Aric Dunn]

It is now.

AL, 91, 2009081600, , BEST, 0, 260N, 830W, 25, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

lol just hit reload 3 minutes ago .. lol

tinme to move the active area..

[cycloneye]

Is invest 91L so the thread is locked.