ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA (02L)

[senorpepr]

Been wondering where Hurakan is...hope he is okay-we need him lol!

Annie, I was thinking the same thing earlier! I miss his graphics(and comments)...ok back to Ana...ST

He's doing well... he's away from the computer for a little bit, but everything is fine. He'll be back soon.

[Nimbus]

There are two ULL's to the north of Ana. Looks like the one just north of her will move out to the northeast and the ULL to her NW will migrate West or WSW which would clear a path through to Florida and the gulf. The convection has caught up with the LLC that was racing west so the shear must be easing.

[KWT]

Yeah the ULL to its north according to the ECM/CMC has a big role to play in the evolution of Bill as well out of interest.

As you say convection isn't really too bad, it briefly slowed down earlier and that allowed it to burst for a time but it seems the quick low level flows have caused it troubles again.

[clfenwi]

AL, 02, 2009081600, , BEST, 0, 144N, 507W, 35, 1004, TS, 34, NEQ, 60, 0, 0, 60, 1010, 150, 40, 45, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ANA, M,

[Nimbus]

it seems the quick low level flows have caused it troubles again.

So the LLC has raced out from under the convection again since 23:45? I was thinking Ana might be slowing and spinning up early, which would favor the more WNW NOGAPS solution and might spare the big islands.

[CrazyC83]

I am not disputing that fact that Frances and Jeanne were a big hit for PBC. All I am saying is that landfall occured in Martin County which is central Florida.... but none of this has anything to do with Ana so I will agree to disagree

Also I should have been more clear in my other posts as what I meant to say is that SE Fla has been very lucky when it comes to major hurricane landfalls as we have not had one since Andrew in 1992.

I live in Boynton and lost power with Frances and Jeanne for a total of over 3 weeks. I hope both Ana and Bill do not knock on my door! I too think the southern track will be what Ana will take. Bill on the other hand I am not so sure.

91L may be a more immediate threat for you though...

[KWT]

I mean more in general this eveing Nimbus in that it got exposed earlier on because the low level flow was quite quick.

[MusicCityMan]

any idea if the tracks will start bouncing back northward? or are they going to keep shifting south

[smw1981]

MusicCityMan, I honestly don't think we will really have a good handle on where Ana is headed until tomorrow evening..so I would expect the tracks to basically stay put (maybe another slight shift to the south) until then (when we know how the ULLs will affect her)..

Disclaimer - just my amateur opinion!

[cycloneye]

WTNT22 KNHC 160246
TCMAT2
TROPICAL STORM ANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022009
0300 UTC SUN AUG 16 2009

AT 11 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BRITISH VIRGIN
ISLANDS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN
ISLANDS WHICH INCLUDES MONTSERRAT... ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...
ST.KITTS...NEVIS AND ANGUILLA. AT 11 PM AST...0300 UTC...A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND
ST. EUSTATIUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ANA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE
REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 51.5W AT 16/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 51.5W AT 16/0300Z
AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 50.7W

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 14.7N 54.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 15.5N 57.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 16.5N 61.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 17.5N 65.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 35NE 0SE 0SW 35NW.
34 KT... 90NE 40SE 40SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 19.5N 73.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 22.5N 78.9W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 25.0N 83.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.4N 51.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA


WTNT42 KNHC 160247
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022009
1100 PM AST SAT AUG 15 2009

THE CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF ANA HAS BEEN PULSATING AND AFTER
AN INCREASE FOR A FEW HOURS...THE LOW LEVEL CENTER HAS BECOME
EXPOSED AGAIN. THIS MEANS ANNA IS NOT STRENGTHENING AND THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 35 KNOTS. A NOAA JET FLEW AGAIN TONIGHT AND ONE
OF THE DROPS NEAR THE CENTER MEASURED A SURFACE PRESSURE OF 1004 MB
WHICH WAS USED FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE SHEAR IS NOT VERY STRONG AS
DIAGNOSED BY THE SHIPS MODELS BUT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF ANA IS
SIMPLY MOVING TOO FAST. THIS RAPID MOTION IS PROBABLY NOT TOO
CONDUCIVE FOR INTENSIFICATION. IN FACT...THE ONLY DYNAMICAL MODELS
THAT KEEP ANA ARE THE UK AND THE NOGAPS. THE REST OF THEM WEAKEN
ANA TO A TROPICAL WAVE. I AM TEMPTED TO SHOW WEAKENING BUT FOR
NOW...I AM GOING TO FOLLOW THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND SHIPS MODEL
GUIDANCE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS SLOW STRENGTHENING THROUGH 48
HOURS FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING AS THE CYCLONE INTERACTS WITH
HISPANIOLA AND CUBA.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/15. ANA IS EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG AND
PERSISTENT TRADE WINDS AND ONLY A SMALL TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST
WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS ANTICIPATED. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS A LITTLE BIT SLOWER THAN MOST OF THE GUIDANCE BUT IS
WELL INSIDE THE ENVELOPE THROUGH 48 HOURS. THEREAFTER...SOME MODELS
KEEP A WEAKER ANA SOUTH OF CUBA AND OTHERS BRING THE CYCLONE OVER
CUBA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS
VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND FOLLOWS THE NORTHERNMOST GROUP
OF MODELS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 16/0300Z 14.4N 51.5W 35 KT
12HR VT 16/1200Z 14.7N 54.1W 35 KT
24HR VT 17/0000Z 15.5N 57.5W 40 KT
36HR VT 17/1200Z 16.5N 61.2W 45 KT
48HR VT 18/0000Z 17.5N 65.0W 50 KT
72HR VT 19/0000Z 19.5N 73.0W 30 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 20/0000Z 22.5N 78.9W 35 KT...OVER WATER
120HR VT 21/0000Z 25.0N 83.6W 40 KT

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[wx247]

The updated track and trend is worrisome in the long term. I know that we are still several days out, but she may go south of PR and eventually DR/Haiti.

[Bocadude85]

If such a strong trough is going to recurve Bill out to sea then why isnt that same trough turning Ana to the NE in her forecast track?

[clfenwi]

ASCAT from earlier this evening:

[smw1981]

If such a strong trough is going to recurve Bill out to sea then why isnt that same trough turning Ana to the NE in her forecast track?

In a few words..Because of the difference in size and strength of the two storms when they encounter the trough...

[Bocadude85]

If such a strong trough is going to recurve Bill out to sea then why isnt that same trough turning Ana to the NE in her forecast track?

In a few words..Because of the difference in size and strength of the two storms when they encounter the trough...

We have seen trough pull up tropical waves......

[HouTXmetro]

OMG, Ana looks deathly ill. She might not make it through the night. Glad her next of kin Bill is here and I hear Claudette is on her way.

[Gustywind]

OMG, Ana looks deathly ill. She might not make it through the night. Glad her next of kin Bill is here and I hear Claudette is on her way.

Hey guy do you forget us in the islands? before saying that please! A simple TS can have big effects on a island.
! Maybe stormy days of us in the Leewards and even the Windwards. Mother nature has always surprises in store you shoud not forget that!
Tkanks my friend all the carib islanders will appreciate

[HouTXmetro]

Of course, for your sake I do hope Ana dies tonight.

[smw1981]

If such a strong trough is going to recurve Bill out to sea then why isnt that same trough turning Ana to the NE in her forecast track?

In a few words..Because of the difference in size and strength of the two storms when they encounter the trough...

We have seen trough pull up tropical waves......

Maybe the case...Air Force Met (a pro) answered this same question that you asked under the "Bill" forum in a little more detail than I did, but said pretty much the same thing.. (I think on page 40 of "Bill")

[The Eye Wall]