ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION CLAUDETTE (04L)

[CrazyC83]

I'd send Recon down there...are there any missions planned on 91L?

[brunota2003]

DISCLAIMER: The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Looking at the visible/IR...I think this thing is going to develop a bit quicker than most are saying/thinking. I see where it appears there is a spin, with the storms wrapping around it. Granted, it probably is not to the surface yet (but I am not sure, it could be) and it could just be the way the storms are developing that gives the appearance of a spin. The direction the spin appears to be moving also would give it a little more time over water. Overall, I think we need more recon! =]

[vacanechaser]

DISCLAIMER: The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Looking at the visible/IR...I think this thing is going to develop a bit quicker than most are saying/thinking. I see where it appears there is a spin, with the storms wrapping around it. Granted, it probably is not to the surface yet (but I am not sure, it could be) and it could just be the way the storms are developing that gives the appearance of a spin. The direction the spin appears to be moving also would give it a little more time over water. Overall, I think we need more recon! =]

if you look at the tampa radar, you will see it is not just the way the storms are forming... it does have a good circulation with it right now... whether it is at the surface right now, dont know... but it would appear to be on its way!



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[artist]

very interesting link here showing the water temps in the area, it's a new one for me from LSU.

http://wavcis.csi.lsu.edu/forecasts/for ... c=currents

and if you click on the region of the gulf you are interested in it will bring up the last 48 or so of temps in a loop for you.
Oh! And click on currents to see the loop current temps as well.

[CrazyC83]

If they sent out a special POD right now, when is the earliest they could take off from Keesler? Would it be possible to reach the system by 1200Z?

[brunota2003]

very interesting link here showing the water temps in the area, it's a new one for me from LSU.

http://wavcis.csi.lsu.edu/forecasts/for ... c=currents

and if you click on the region of the gulf you are interested in it will bring up the last 48 or so of temps in a loop for you.
Oh! And click on currents to see the loop current temps as well.

I see it looks like it has 29 to 32 degree water to work with all the way up to the coast. How deep does that water extend though?

[brunota2003]

If they sent out a special POD right now, when is the earliest they could take off from Keesler? Would it be possible to reach the system by 1200Z?

Depends on how long they have been considering flying into it. I've heard they need a minimum of 24 hours notice before they can fly. But if they have the resources on hand, and a very good reason to, I'm sure someone could "wave" that 24 hours. I do not know how stretched they are at the moment though.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Correct me if I'm wrong but what concerns me with this is the ridge building in a little stronger and expanding more westward quicker therefore blocking the northward motion and slowing it down, then pushing whatever it becomes more westward. Therefore allowing it more time over water under ideal strengthening conditions. Does this seem plausible?

[wx247]

I must admit, I have been skeptical most of the day but it is getting to the point where you really have to think there may be something coming soon from this Invest. It looks to have less than 24 hours over water at this rate. That is time to get going once we get confirmation of a legitimate surface circulation. Of course this is just my opinion, not official!

[lrak]

Correct me if I'm wrong but what concerns me with this is the ridge building in a little stronger and expanding more westward quicker therefore blocking the northward motion and slowing it down, then pushing whatever it becomes more westward. Therefore allowing it more time over water under ideal strengthening conditions. Does this seem plausible?

I got this from artist's post, thanks, and the waves are in odd areas through the 84 hr loop. http://wavcis.csi.lsu.edu/forecasts/for ... c=currents I've never came across this wave model which seems to show two storms? It shows a more westword track and two big swells hitting the coast of TX? Which day do I need to call in sick?

[wxman57]

Current enhanced IR loop shows tops warming near the weak center. Also, it may be moving even faster now. Nothing to slow it down. Should be inland tomorrow afternoon (or sooner).

[lrak]

So my wave machines a bust...bummer.

[Aric Dunn]

Current enhanced IR loop shows tops warming near the weak center. Also, it may be moving even faster now. Nothing to slow it down. Should be inland tomorrow afternoon (or sooner).

lol... cloud tops always warm and cool .... its called convection.... by definition thats what it does....

also its normal for that to happen and again if it did not there would be a problem with physics.. lol

[weatherSnoop]

A little state wide radar view of 91 l

[wxman57]

Pressure is rising at the buoy 115nm west of the center. Wind NE 5 kts. No sign of pressure falls around the squalls. Good sign. Going to bed.

[MGC]

Convection does appear to be getting a bit more organized on the east side of the circulation. 91L appears to be slowly organizing this evening. Not sure if there is a surface circulation though. Looks like it is going to track to the NW or NNW.......MGC

[vacanechaser]

Convection does appear to be getting a bit more organized on the east side of the circulation. 91L appears to be slowly organizing this evening. Not sure if there is a surface circulation though. Looks like it is going to track to the NW or NNW.......MGC

exactly... the convection is starting to re-fire... do not see the warming talked about... but we will see...



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[Sanibel]

Right in my neighborhood. That thing blew up fast. I went to wash the dishes and opened a window and a gust blew a glass off the counter and shattered it!

I guess the Weather Service prediction about Gulf conditions and the wave was right.


Steady tropical winds now from SSE.

[Aric Dunn]

one more thing... if pressure falls in one spot it is not instantaneously transmitted to 100 miles away.. if there is a pressure fall the "pressure wave" expands outward which takes time... kind of like a ripple..

[gatorcane]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Here in South Florida this evening, we received a band of rain that spun around the mid-level center of 91L with wind gusts to 45mph sustained around 35mph. There is alot of energy with this system but I just don't think it will have time to ramp up into anything that will cause any problems for those in the GOM.