ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION CLAUDETTE (04L)

[wxman57]

Must be a very small center wxman57, I don't think they would have upgraded unless there was proof.

They mentioned a QS pass, but I can't find that either. Anyone have a link? But you'd think we could find at least some turning in the surface obs near the western FL Peninsula and with all the buoys out there. Can't even find any lowering pressures. See for yourself. Here's a plot. Look at the buoy 56nm NNW of the crosshairs which mark the NHC center. ESE at 20 kts - blowing away from their point. Is this supposed to be a micro circulation that doesn't affect a point more than 60 miles away? Looks to me that it may be a strong circulation aloft, based on surface obs.

[KWT]

Note the 15kt increase from now to 12hrs time. Given landfall is going to be roughly 17-18hrs time I think the NHC would be upto 50-55kts by landfall.

Certainly rapid strengthening, I wonder what the RI risk is on the models?

[Aric Dunn]

Must be a very small center wxman57, I don't think they would have upgraded unless there was proof.

They mentioned a QS pass, but I can't find that either. Anyone have a link? But you'd think we could find at least some turning in the surface obs near the western FL Peninsula and with all the buoys out there. Can't even find any lowering pressures. See for yourself. Here's a plot. Look at the buoy 56nm NNW of the crosshairs which mark the NHC center. ESE at 20 kts - blowing away from their point. Is this supposed to be a micro circulation that doesn't affect a point more than 60 miles away? Looks to me that it may be a strong circulation aloft, based on surface obs.

i'll post this again .. this is a pressure fall...




it will cross over this buoy in about 5hours or so ..





and its not a new scat pass it was the old one that they are saying probably had a surface circ but it was so small and rain contaminated that it did not show up on that pass..

[KWT]

Also note every bit further west this can go the longer it has over water, the stronger this one can become.

[Aric Dunn]

Also note every bit further west this can go the longer it has over water, the stronger this one can become.

right because of the cape there...

[KWT]

Plus it'll have more time over water as well since its motion won't be taking it as much to the north if it manages to track more to the NW.

[Aric Dunn]

Plus it'll have more time over water as well since its motion won't be taking it as much to the north if it manages to track more to the NW.

its going to be interesting none the less.. being that its under perfect conditions.. im curious to see it it takes advantage of it or not..

[Aric Dunn]

here is a cool buoy site...
http://www.pdfamily.com/weather/buoy/FLbuoy.php

[KWT]

I think it will but even if it rapidly developers there is probably a limit to how high it can go simply because an inner core won't set-up in just a few hours which is what really is needed to take advantage of the super high SST's.

[Thunder44]

I suppose they are talking about this descending pass last night. But I don't see anything close to a center here:

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... MBds19.png

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... 19_amb.png

[Aric Dunn]

another view..

[Aric Dunn]

I think it will but even if it rapidly developers there is probably a limit to how high it can go simply because an inner core won't set-up in just a few hours which is what really is needed to take advantage of the super high SST's.

actually thats exactly what happened with humberto.. lol

[Aric Dunn]

there is more and more banding showing up and wrapping around on every new radar image.. this thing is going to drop like a rock if that center is becoming well defined.. and with the new radar presentation it may just be doing that.. very heavy convection firing..

[KWT]

Well maybe Aric, as I said I think it was a little better developed earlier on then people think...however Lorenzo is another example to be fair.

As you've said Aric though very deep convection is blowing up now, develop feeder bands as well and its tiny as well...

Under good upper air conditions plus exceptionally hot Gulf, I suppose the risk is there.

[wxman57]

I'm hunting all over to find any observation in the eastern Gulf that's not from between east and south. Haven't found one yet. I do measure the speed of the MLC at closer to 14-15 kts, though. And at 330 deg, it has 130nm to go before it reaches the coast. That would put it inland in about 10 hrs at 14 kts.

[Aric Dunn]

I'm hunting all over to find any observation in the eastern Gulf that's not from between east and south. Haven't found one yet. I do measure the speed of the MLC at closer to 14-15 kts, though. And at 330 deg, it has 130nm to go before it reaches the coast. That would put it inland in about 10 hrs at 14 kts.

there are just no working obs close enough... give it 2 hours.. they will be there ...

[KWT]

Yeah thats about the speed the NHC have it at wxman57 roughly, I can only guess the models are expecting a slight slowdown before it reaches the coast.

Got to admit the presentation is pretty impressive!

[Aric Dunn]

any flights going out... lol

[KWT]

Well the thing is surely we would have had some sort of obs from planes flying nearby given it was only an area of thunderstorms until just recently.

[wxman57]

Yeah thats about the speed the NHC have it at wxman57 roughly, I can only guess the models are expecting a slight slowdown before it reaches the coast.

Got to admit the presentation is pretty impressive!

On radar, yes. In surface obs, no. Radar is looking well above the surface. Anyway, heading in to the office after about 1.5 hours sleep overnight and 4 phone calls.