ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA (02L)

[knotimpaired]

000
WTNT32 KNHC 160859
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ANA ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022009
500 AM AST SUN AUG 16 2009

...ANA CONTINUES WESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH...

AT 5 AM AST...0900 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR
PUERTO RICO.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS...THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...MONTSERRAT...
ANTIGUA...BARBUDA... T.KITTS...NEVIS...ANGUILLA...ST.
MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ANA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED
FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ANA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.8 WEST OR ABOUT 560
MILES...900 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

ANA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR. A TURN TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CENTER OF
ANA SHOULD REACH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS BY EARLY MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

ANA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...INCLUDING THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN
ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES OVER
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

...SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...14.6N 53.8W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 20 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[KWT]

Yep the key for me is the fact its still racing away to the west. May not be a bad thing for it if it slows down somewhat so at least the relative shear won't be so high.

[knotimpaired]

Puerto Rico is now under a Tropical Storm Watch.

[KWT]

If it doesn't somehow pull the convection back towards it that watch won't really be needed. Certainly wion't be strengthening any time soon.

Still the goal is just to survive for now, got a feeling if it does make it to the Gulf thats where things will happen, AKA Frederic.

[alan1961]

Ana has had issues for most of its life cycle so far, i dont see that changing at all really especially as its going to be entering into the eastern caribbean basin soon, still dry air ahead of it and with the notorious hostile conditions the caribbean can serve up IMO i think she's coming to her demise, she's a fighter yes and those waters might just inject life again maybe but just can't see it myself, you've served your purpose baby, let Bill take over

[KWT]

Its hard to tell, the circulation is still pretty decent and I'd be surprised if the system doesn't get at least a short break at some point from the shear issues, though obviously they are going to be present to some extent for a time yet.

I'm not going to put a fork in it yet simply because its too early to call.

[caribepr]

oops! from the 5:30 discussion from NWS San Juan

THE MAIN CONCERN FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS STILL
TROPICAL STORM ANA...AND TROPICAL STORM BILL. FIRST AT ALL...LET
START WITH ANA. ANA HAS BEEN STRUGGLING THIS MORNING TO SURVIVE.
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATED AN EXPOSE CENTER...WITH THE DEEP
CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER. DRIER AIR
INTRUSION LOOKS THE MAIN FACTOR THAT IS AFFECTING ANA AT THIS
MOMENT. ALTHOUGH ANA LOOKS IN BAD SHAPE THIS MOMENT...STILL SOME
POTENTIAL THAT ANA WILL FIND BETTER ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS THE
NEXT DAY OR SO...BEFORE APPROACHING THE LOCAL AREA.

[KWT]

Yeah I'm realy not sure this is going to survive, could make it as a TD I suppose for a while yet if the shear doesn't ease down.

Ana still trying to pop convection but its having a pretty hard time right now.

[knotimpaired]

Yeah I'm realy not sure this is going to survive, could make it as a TD I suppose for a while yet if the shear doesn't ease down.

Ana still trying to pop convection but its having a pretty hard time right now.

I am not too sure about that KWT.

Here is our islands forecast from this morning for the next few days.

PRZ013-162030-
VIEQUES-
531 AM AST SUN AUG 16 2009

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT...

.TODAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS. HIGHS 91 LOWER
ELEVATIONS RANGING TO 80 HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
CHANCE OF RAIN 20 PERCENT.
.
TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE EVENING...THEN
VARIABLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS 82 LOWER
ELEVATIONS RANGING TO 71 HIGHER ELEVATIONS. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND
15 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT.

.MONDAY...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. MOSTLY CLOUDY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING...THEN
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS
90 LOWER ELEVATIONS RANGING TO 80 HIGHER ELEVATIONS. NORTHEAST WINDS
AROUND 15 MPH INCREASING TO NORTH 35 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
60 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF RAIN 60 PERCENT.
.
MONDAY NIGHT...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. MOSTLY CLOUDY
WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS 82 LOWER
ELEVATIONS RANGING TO 74 HIGHER ELEVATIONS. NORTHEAST WINDS 50 TO
60 MPH BECOMING SOUTHEAST AND DECREASING TO 40 TO 50 MPH AFTER
MIDNIGHT. GUSTS UP TO 80 MPH DECREASING TO 65 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT.
.
TUESDAY...VARIABLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS 92 LOWER ELEVATIONS RANGING TO
80 HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN
40 PERCENT.
.

[KWT]

True but they are using the NHC forecast which is suggesting strengthening, ubt thats simply not going to happen unless that shear eases down..and given what the dynamic models are showing I think its safe to say that isn't going to happen for a time yet probably

[knotimpaired]

True but they are using the NHC forecast which is suggesting strengthening, ubt thats simply not going to happen unless that shear eases down..and given what the dynamic models are showing I think its safe to say that isn't going to happen for a time yet probably

Are you saying you have no faith in the NHC?

[alan1961]

A few pops on the western side of Ana's naked swirl, here we go again

[tolakram]

True but they are using the NHC forecast which is suggesting strengthening, ubt thats simply not going to happen unless that shear eases down..and given what the dynamic models are showing I think its safe to say that isn't going to happen for a time yet probably

Are you saying you have no faith in the NHC?

The NHC has very low confidence in Ana's intensity forecast. Better safe than sorry in this case.

[Kingarabian]

True but they are using the NHC forecast which is suggesting strengthening, ubt thats simply not going to happen unless that shear eases down..and given what the dynamic models are showing I think its safe to say that isn't going to happen for a time yet probably

Are you saying you have no faith in the NHC?

Dont blame him :/.

[KWT]

Well the NHC are the best and so of course follow them but with this one its heading in the wrong trend for thier forecast to be correct put it that way. Personally I'd have downgraded this baby this morning but there you go!

Edit---saying that new Dmax convective burst trying to form near the center...best be safe then sorry I suppose. Recon goes in later today anyway so that will be telling.

[Gustywind]

Yellow alert for Guadeloupe and the Northern Islands, a possible orange code this afternoon.

[KWT]

Yep, still needs to be watched, this is the type of system that struggles for most of it existance then finds much more favorable conditions. Of course in the long term I still think its only 50-50 it survives but every burst buys it time.

[Nimbus]

Ana has sprinted west through the dry air with a few brief plumes of convection to keep her alive. This morning another pop of convection. She must be getting into a more favorable area for development if the NHC was calling for intensification.

[KWT]

Wel lyou'd think so Nimbus but I'm not really so sure, looking at the WV loops there is a nice big fat ULL to the west so there isn't much of a gap between the shear its in now and the higher shear the ULL is inducing.

A track north or south of the Caribbean really doesn't matter in this situation given the ULL.

[Gustywind]