ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION CLAUDETTE (04L)

[KWT]

The thing is though with such a good circulation aloft and very good conditions even if its not quite at the surface yet I'd expect it to dig down pretty rapidly.

[Aric Dunn]

The thing is though with such a good circulation aloft and very good conditions even if its not quite at the surface yet I'd expect it to dig down pretty rapidly.

oh its at the surface.. nhc says it is first off.. and the evidence is there

[KWT]

Yeah I personally think the NHC wouldn't have upgraded it without thinking they had the proof to upgrade it in the first place.
Bet if it was in the Atlantic though this would be a different matter...

[Aric Dunn]

Yeah I personally think the NHC wouldn't have upgraded it without thinking they had the proof to upgrade it in the first place.
Bet if it was in the Atlantic though this would be a different matter...

exactly..

[hurricanefloyd5]

it looks to me that the centger of TD#4 has moved closer to the west coast of florida cause the center looks to be under all that convection now.http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/loop-avn.html
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... W&loop=yes

[Lurker]

Aric - great call on this one! Here in Miami we were pounded yesterday.

[Aric Dunn]

Aric - great call on this one! Here in Miami we were pounded yesterday.

the thing is really starting to drop the rock... lol there is some major convective banding quickly taking shape

[KWT]

Yep, good job this isn't heading WNW or further south when its developed otherwise this could really have gone crazy...going to be a very interesting day regardless today.

[Aric Dunn]

just found out ...for sure.. im heading out in about an hour to Apalachicola to chase...im excited... dont why its only my 8 chase but this one seems funner .. lol

[KWT]

Probably because you were one of the first ones to really watch this chance grow.

Anyway system still looking good, only going to need the doppler radar to suggest a TS and we will have it...

[tolakram]

Heat content drops off, so perhaps organization will slow. Of course this may be because of shallow waters and not be indicative of how much heat is available.

[wxman57]

Probably because you were one of the first ones to really watch this chance grow.

Anyway system still looking good, only going to need the doppler radar to suggest a TS and we will have it...

I'm at the office now. Doppler radar isn't going to give us surface winds, though. It's looking way up there at around 9000-10,000 ft at 80-90 miles from the center. Just 30 miles west of the radar, just offshore Tampa, the beam height is already at 2000+ ft. Still can't find any evidence of a surface circulation in the obs, by the way. The center is heading right for a buoy (it has E winds 10 kts and 1013.9mb). Maybe the buoy will show something soon.

[senorpepr]

I recently added a GRLevel3 Floater to the Main 04L Weather Chart Floater thread.

Any feedback is appreciated. Thanks!

[KWT]

Yeah, still I've seen the NHC upgrade a system before based on dopplar returns being high enough.

Will be interesting to see what Buoy shows I have to admit!

Heat content won't make a huge difference with a system this strength, it'll organise right upto the coast as have other such systems done in the past. A small system though thats for sure!

[tolakram]

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42036

[wxman57]

Here's a new surface plot/satellite. I extrapolated the movement 330/13-14 kts (35nm) from the 09Z position. Buoy 43036 just 18 nm from the center of TD 4 has east winds 11.7 kts and 1013.8mb.

[tolakram]

HWRF Model, just for kicks

[KWT]

We'll find out soon wxman57 because in the next hour or so the center should be passing very close by.

[wxman57]

Radar plot with surface obs confirms my estimated position 18-20nm from the buoy:

[dixiebreeze]

8 a.m. update -- pressure dropping:

...Depression moving north-northwestward...heading for the northern
Gulf Coast of Florida...

a Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect from the Alabama/Florida
border eastward to the Suwannee River Florida. A Tropical Storm
Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere
within the warning area within 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area please monitor products
issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

At 800 am EDT...1200 UTC...the center of Tropical Depression Four
was located near latitude 28.1 north...longitude 84.1 west or about
125 miles...200 km...south-southeast of Apalachicola Florida.

The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 16
mph...and this motion is expected to continue today. On the
forecast track...the center of the depression should be very near
the northern Gulf Coast of Florida by late this afternoon.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph...55 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Strengthening is expected and the depression is forecast to
become a tropical storm prior to reaching the coastline.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb...29.85 inches.

Rainfall accumulations of 3 to 5 inches...with isolated maximum
amounts of 10 inches across portions of North Florida near the path
of the center.

Coastal storm surge flooding of 3 to 5 feet above normal tide
levels can be expected near and to the east of where the center
makes landfall.

...Summary of 800 am EDT information...
location...28.1n 84.1w
maximum sustained winds...35 mph
present movement...north-northwest or 330 degrees at 16 mph
minimum central pressure...1011 mb

the next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
1100 am EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brennan/Roberts