ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA (02L)

[KWT]

Yep if it does strengthen, however I don't think conditions will be much better then they are now in the Caribbean bar maybe the NW region.

[Stormcenter]

There is going to be a trough heading south into the GOM that will
eventually send whats left of Ana NE or NNE if and when
she make it there.

[tolakram]

I don't think even a naked swirl will make it out alive, but maybe conditions will improve.

[KWT]

Depends on the timing stormcenter and how far south the front actually gets in the end.

However I doubt it'll go NE from the latitude its going to be at, more likely it'll continue WNW in the Caribbean, either hit or come very close to the Yucatan then curve up towards LA/Texas. If there is a front about at the time then shear will be an issue yet again once it gets close enough to the system but that would still give it a good 48hr window of strengthening, maybe longer if it stays closer to NW.

Also it very much is the case of if it survives I agree!

[storms NC]

I don't think we need to worry over Ana. Rain maker at the most for the Islands. She is small so hopfully she will not drop to much rain on them. The ULL to the north of Ana ate her up and she out ran herself. Need to slow down so the fronts can move the Ull out of the way. if this don't happen well there will be no Ana. But Bill is going to be the bad one. He has played it smart by staying down low. Bill shows signs of slowing up some. JIMO

[KWT]

I think actually Storms in NC its Ana we have to really watch. Its got a tough long road ahead of it it has to be said I'm not convinced it'll survive but if it does the gulf looks like where its destined to go and conditions in the southern gulf look like they will be decent enough.

[rrm]

i am not no met or pro by far but it seems like most of the storms i see enter the gom at this time of the year seem to ramp up very quickly

[alan1961]

i am not no met or pro by far but it seems like most of the storms i see enter the gom at this time of the year seem to ramp up very quickly

Its survival first rrm as we can see, then how the caribbean graveyard is, hostility wise, then obviously the track which we all know presents obstacles like DR and Cuba, think one hurdle at a time is the rule

[KWT]

Land won't be an issue IMO. I know its early but its not picking up much if any latitude, certainly not enough to suggest DR/Haiti are at big risk. Shear is an issue clearly though in the E.Caribbean it appears to be decreasing just a touch as the ULL continues just south of west.

[tolakram]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/#


Two bumps over or near the center.

[KWT]

Yep and quite a bit to the south of the NHC track as well, certainly suggestive that this one is going to miss the Islands IMO if this keeps up for any length of time.

[Gustywind]

Convection is reppoping...

[KWT]

Yeah pretty typical of Dmax really. Also its heading away from the last higher shear zone as it finally passes west of the ULL to its north.

Lower shear till about 65W at the moment though its not totally gone, but down to about 10kts I'd guesstimate using the data I've seen. Shear of over 25kts west of 65W at the moment around the southern flank of the ULL.

[senorpepr]

820
NOUS42 KNHC 161345
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0945 AM EDT SUN 16 AUGUST 2009
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 17/1100Z TO 18/1100Z AUGUST 2009
TCPOD NUMBER.....09-080

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM ANA
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 72
A. 17/1800Z,18/0000Z
B. AFXXX 0302A ANA
C. 17/1600Z
D. 16.8N 64.6W
E. 17/1700Z TO 18/0000Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 73
A. 18/0600Z,1200Z
B. AFXXX 0402A ANA
C. 18/0330Z
D. 17.6N 68.2W
E. 18/0500Z TO 18/1200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES IF
SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT.

3. REMARKS: A RESOURCES PERMITTING TASKING ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION 2 IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE LAUNCHED
TODAY AT 16/1500Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
JWP

[cyclonic chronic]

so they're launching at 11 a.m. eastern? resources permitting. if so that would be really cool

[senorpepr]

so they're launching at 11 a.m. eastern? resources permitting. if so that would be really cool

That was a typo... that's for TD 4.

[tolakram]

Hmmmm.

I think Ana is in some serious trouble.

The moisture is literally gone with the wind.


and I'm starting to believe that the circulation might have been disrupted.


1km Flash Loop
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... is_floater

[gatorcane]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

About the only chance Ana has is further downstream, possibly when she arrives in the northern Western Carib....I don't see this one developing into much, mostly because of dry air and land interaction. Should pass well south of Florida as well.

[KWT]

Recon will give us a good indication as to what the center is like, I'd imagine after the last few days it will probably not be the greatest ever!

Still shear doesn't seem to be as high as it was just recently so thats something to remember and shear actually is ok for a little while yet, though its still there to some degree.

That dry air has been there right from the very start by the way tolakram, so nothing really new there.

[tolakram]

That dry air has been there right from the very start by the way tolakram, so nothing really new there.

My point was that last night Ana had a good envelope of moisture and today it's blown off to the east.