ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION CLAUDETTE (04L)

[Noles2006]

This should be fun... it won't be too bad, and definitely won't be Eduardo Part II...

[gatorcane]

well I did forecast several weeks ago that the "switch" would turn on in the Atlantic (although thought maybe a bit later like Aug 20 something...so I'm about 1 week off I guess) ....and looks like it will verify.

[psyclone]

theses are my kind of storms.... fun, fairly harmless and make for good weather watching. the forgotten coast is gonna get dumped on from this one while the heavy rains stay just off the west coast. my region is under the dense cloud canopy while the heavy rains stay just offshore so the weather here is delightful with midday temps only in the low 80's... a real bargain for the central florida gulf coast in mid august.

[Nimbus]

That talk about Claudette running up against a high pressure gradient worried me when I saw the last few radar frames, but I guess the NHC is pretty sure it will be inland in the next 6 hours?

[KWT]

Radar would suggest it moving closer to the WNW but as Sanibel said its quite hard to tell really esp as thats looking at the mid levels, the surface feature could still be heading in the exact same direction.

[Noles2006]

Can't judge movement by just a few frames... still looks NW to me... landfall looks to be just east of PCB, after paralleling the coast line...

[drezee]

recon in the center in the end of the next set of obs...hold on...BTW SFMR has already estimated TS force surface winds NW of the center...

[CrazyC83]

Personally, I think this has a shot at becoming a hurricane if it goes NW/WNW and misses the first chance for landfall...

[jinftl]

Predicting that the tropics would get active in mid-August, how did you ever come to that conclusion??? Just kidding you....climatology was on your side (although there were many other voices saying the same thing...including NOAA, Dr. Gray, etc)

well I did forecast several weeks ago that the "switch" would turn on in the Atlantic (although thought maybe a bit later like Aug 20 something...so I'm about 1 week off I guess) ....and looks like it will verify.

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 161634
AF304 0104A CYCLONE HDOB 08 20090816
162730 2934N 08536W 9250 00815 0163 +190 +083 086022 023 027 007 00
162800 2933N 08534W 9250 00814 0161 +191 +082 081022 022 030 007 00
162830 2932N 08533W 9250 00814 0159 +194 +081 082022 023 028 008 00
162900 2931N 08532W 9251 00810 0158 +193 +080 090023 023 029 007 00
162930 2930N 08531W 9247 00814 0157 +194 +080 088024 025 028 009 00
163000 2929N 08530W 9248 00812 0156 +197 +081 085025 025 031 008 00
163030 2928N 08529W 9252 00807 0155 +195 +081 077025 026 031 008 00
163100 2927N 08528W 9249 00810 0155 +192 +082 069024 025 030 007 00
163130 2925N 08526W 9250 00808 0155 +193 +082 068024 025 029 007 00
163200 2924N 08525W 9250 00807 0154 +193 +083 074022 024 030 005 00
163230 2923N 08524W 9249 00809 0153 +194 +084 074021 022 030 006 00
163300 2922N 08523W 9248 00809 0151 +200 +085 073024 026 031 004 00
163330 2921N 08522W 9258 00798 0148 +202 +086 073026 026 029 006 00
163400 2920N 08521W 9241 00813 0150 +195 +088 075026 027 030 007 00
163430 2919N 08520W 9248 00805 0146 +200 +089 073028 028 034 004 00
163500 2918N 08518W 9249 00802 0145 +196 +089 069024 026 032 005 00
163530 2917N 08517W 9252 00799 0144 +200 +089 068022 023 032 005 00
163600 2915N 08516W 9251 00798 0139 +209 +088 064023 023 030 006 00
163630 2914N 08515W 9241 00806 0137 +209 +088 064023 023 032 006 00
163700 2913N 08514W 9257 00791 0136 +212 +090 059022 022 033 005 03
$$
;

SFMR 34 kt supports TS Claudette.

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 161644
AF304 0104A CYCLONE HDOB 09 20090816
163730 2912N 08513W 9242 00804 0136 +208 +091 056022 022 032 005 03
163800 2911N 08512W 9252 00792 0135 +205 +092 053024 025 033 005 00
163830 2909N 08510W 9247 00795 0131 +209 +092 048025 026 033 004 00
163900 2908N 08509W 9254 00789 0131 +210 +092 041021 022 031 007 03
163930 2907N 08508W 9248 00792 0126 +212 +092 037023 024 035 008 00
164000 2906N 08507W 9250 00785 0128 +198 +092 025019 020 033 009 03
164030 2905N 08505W 9240 00795 0121 +211 +087 022018 019 033 005 00
164100 2904N 08504W 9244 00786 0115 +219 +084 010017 017 034 004 03
164130 2904N 08502W 9247 00779 0110 +218 +084 003017 018 033 005 00
164200 2903N 08500W 9254 00768 0101 +225 +086 347017 018 033 006 03
164230 2903N 08458W 9249 00765 0092 +228 +088 325015 017 029 007 00
164300 2903N 08456W 9237 00771 0089 +214 +090 303007 014 028 008 03
164330 2904N 08455W 9250 00749 0086 +201 +089 140009 017 037 010 00
164400 2905N 08454W 9260 00750 0098 +186 +085 132041 047 055 022 03
164430 2907N 08452W 9245 00769 0110 +170 +079 135052 053 058 027 03
164500 2908N 08451W 9241 00782 0119 +175 +070 139054 055 059 021 00
164530 2909N 08450W 9248 00783 0128 +178 +065 141050 051 049 013 00
164600 2910N 08449W 9254 00780 0130 +183 +062 142049 050 048 012 00
164630 2911N 08447W 9252 00785 0130 +194 +063 144045 046 049 010 00
164700 2912N 08446W 9248 00792 0134 +195 +066 145045 045 047 010 00
$$
;

55 kt FL (supports 45 kt), 59 kt SFMR, 1009mb pressure. Expect a special advisory soon.

[lonelymike]

Predicting that the tropics would get active in mid-August, how did you ever come to that conclusion??? Just kidding you....climatology was on your side (although there were many other voices saying the same thing...including NOAA, Dr. Gray, etc)

well I did forecast several weeks ago that the "switch" would turn on in the Atlantic (although thought maybe a bit later like Aug 20 something...so I'm about 1 week off I guess) ....and looks like it will verify.

He is a gator fan so that would account for the boasting

[CrazyC83]

Latest Recon data: 59 kt SFMR, 55 kt FL (40-45 kt at surface). I'd put it at 50 kt as a blend of the data, and I'd treat the earlier cruise ship report as valid.

[deltadog03]

Looks like she is trying to take off.

[drezee]

16:43:00Z 29.050N 84.933W 923.7 mb
(~ 27.28 inHg) 771 meters
(~ 2,530 feet) 1008.9 mb
(~ 29.79 inHg) - From 303° at 7 knots
(From between the WNW and NW at ~ 8.0 mph) 21.4°C
(~ 70.5°F) 9.0°C
(~ 48.2°F) 14 knots
(~ 16.1 mph) 28 knots*
(~ 32.2 mph*) 8 mm/hr*
(~ 0.31 in/hr*) 14.0 knots* (~ 16.1 mph*)
200.0%*
16:43:30Z 29.067N 84.917W 925.0 mb
(~ 27.32 inHg) 749 meters
(~ 2,457 feet) 1008.6 mb
(~ 29.78 inHg) - From 140° at 9 knots
(From the SE at ~ 10.3 mph) 20.1°C
(~ 68.2°F) 8.9°C
(~ 48.0°F) 17 knots
(~ 19.5 mph) 37 knots
(~ 42.5 mph) 10 mm/hr
(~ 0.39 in/hr) 19.6 knots (~ 22.5 mph)
217.6%
16:44:00Z 29.083N 84.900W 926.0 mb
(~ 27.34 inHg) 750 meters
(~ 2,461 feet) 1009.8 mb
(~ 29.82 inHg) - From 132° at 41 knots
(From the SE at ~ 47.1 mph) 18.6°C
(~ 65.5°F) 8.5°C
(~ 47.3°F) 47 knots
(~ 54.0 mph) 55 knots*
(~ 63.2 mph*) 22 mm/hr*
(~ 0.87 in/hr*) 48.0 knots* (~ 55.2 mph*)
Tropical Storm* 117.0%*
16:44:30Z 29.117N 84.867W 924.5 mb
(~ 27.30 inHg) 769 meters
(~ 2,523 feet) 1011.0 mb
(~ 29.85 inHg) - From 135° at 52 knots
(From the SE at ~ 59.8 mph) 17.0°C
(~ 62.6°F) 7.9°C
(~ 46.2°F) 53 knots
(~ 60.9 mph) 58 knots*
(~ 66.7 mph*) 27 mm/hr*
(~ 1.06 in/hr*) 56.9 knots* (~ 65.4 mph*)
Tropical Storm* 109.4%*
16:45:00Z 29.133N 84.850W 924.1 mb
(~ 27.29 inHg) 782 meters
(~ 2,566 feet) 1011.9 mb
(~ 29.88 inHg) - From 139° at 54 knots
(From the SE at ~ 62.1 mph) 17.5°C
(~ 63.5°F) 7.0°C
(~ 44.6°F) 55 knots
(~ 63.2 mph) 59 knots
(~ 67.8 mph) 21 mm/hr
(~ 0.83 in/hr) 57.9 knots (~ 66.6 mph)
Tropical Storm 107.3%
16:45:30Z 29.150N 84.833W 924.8 mb
(~ 27.31 inHg) 783 meters
(~ 2,569 feet) 1012.8 mb
(~ 29.91 inHg) - From 141° at 50 knots
(From the SE at ~ 57.5 mph) 17.8°C
(~ 64.0°F) 6.5°C
(~ 43.7°F) 51 knots
(~ 58.6 mph) 49 knots
(~ 56.3 mph) 13 mm/hr
(~ 0.51 in/hr) 48.0 knots (~ 55.2 mph)
Tropical Storm 96.1%

[CrazyC83]

Looks like she is trying to take off.

I wouldn't give the SFMR full credit as it is in shallow water, but it is much more than 35 kt right now I would think. The pressures should be very high for the intensity as it is a small storm near a ridge.

[KWT]

Yeah 50kts sounds about right for now, right on the NHC forecast as well...still has probably a good 2hrs offshore which will be interesting to watch and see whether recon gets any higher winds.

[The Eye Wall]

The outflow is really blossoming! Wouldn't be surprised to see a 50kt storm by landfall.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/loop-vis.html[code][/code]

[drezee]

16:45:00Z 29.133N 84.850W 924.1 mb
(~ 27.29 inHg) 782 meters
(~ 2,566 feet) 1011.9 mb
(~ 29.88 inHg) - From 139° at 54 knots
(From the SE at ~ 62.1 mph) 17.5°C
(~ 63.5°F) 7.0°C
(~ 44.6°F) 55 knots
(~ 63.2 mph) 59 knots
(~ 67.8 mph) 21 mm/hr
(~ 0.83 in/hr) 57.9 knots (~ 66.6 mph)
Tropical Storm 107.3%

Surface estimate is actually 66.6 mph

[tolakram]

Non-decoded is easier to read.