ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA (02L)

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Gustywind
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#1741 Postby Gustywind » Sun Aug 16, 2009 11:08 am

Guadeloupe and the Northern Leewards under an ORANGE alert, code given our pro mets of Meteo-France.
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Re: ATL: TROPICAL STORM ANA (02L)

#1742 Postby jinftl » Sun Aug 16, 2009 11:16 am

Good question, I would imagine the actual forecast is a blend of the various models, historical data for systems in the area, climatology, etc. With Ana, alot of the variance could simply be from those forecast tracks which show a dissipating system over hispanola and cuba vs those model forecasts that show ana could slip south or north of those landmasses and potentially be a system to contend with.

Clearly, they are putting more stock in the weak td outcome....but it is key to realize that could very well be a blended solution...it may be more likely we will have either a dissipated system or a ts if she remains more over water.



Javlin wrote:Good info jinftl now that it has been stated I would maybe assume the forcast intensity's are man made by the NHC while the chart is computer generated?If so while most models throw out Ana to dissipation were do they get the numbers?
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Re: ATL: TROPICAL STORM ANA (02L)

#1743 Postby alienstorm » Sun Aug 16, 2009 11:21 am

Ana will be downgraded to an open wave, looking at visible loop their is no evidence of a closed circulation.
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Re: ATL: TROPICAL STORM ANA (02L)

#1744 Postby jinftl » Sun Aug 16, 2009 11:25 am

Possibly. But she has cheated death once before. Down the road, time over land will be key....perhaps it is because of td/claudette, i am surprise there is not more talk about the 5-day forecast map that shows whatever ana is down the roads....remnant low, td, ts....moving into the southeast gulf. There is a definite argument that reintensification at that time is possible...as is reflected by the nhc wind probability graphic.

Per NHC Discussion:

BEYOND THAT TIME...THE INTENSITY OF ANA WILL BE DICTATED PRIMARILY BY ITS
INTERACTION WITH HISPANIOLA AND CUBA...


alienstorm wrote:Ana will be downgraded to an open wave, looking at visible loop their is no evidence of a closed circulation.
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Re: ATL: TROPICAL STORM ANA (02L)

#1745 Postby rockyman » Sun Aug 16, 2009 11:31 am

For anyone doubting that Ana could come back, even after a trip across the Greater Antilles, compare Ana's forecast track to Cat 4 Frederic (1979):

FREDERIC
Image

ANA
Image
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#1746 Postby KWT » Sun Aug 16, 2009 11:37 am

Recon will show what state the system is in...but:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... is_floater

There is certainly a circulation, you can see it. Its made a reasonable jump tothe WNW in the last 3hrs, motion around 285-290 I'd imagine, heading towards the islands and probably towards a bad fate...
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Re: ATL: TROPICAL STORM ANA (02L)

#1747 Postby jinftl » Sun Aug 16, 2009 11:42 am

All in all, there are a few more models suggesting intensification after 48 hours than before (but then there are models still suggesting dissipation as well.....ana will be a tricky one).

Image

Image
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Re: ATL: TROPICAL STORM ANA (02L)

#1748 Postby alienstorm » Sun Aug 16, 2009 11:48 am

It may just be that their is a new center forming WNW of the old previous one, it will interesting to see if:

a) Convention fires up around the new center or if it just a burst
b) slower forward speed

While the dry air has hampered it, the fast forward motion is doing a lot more damage, however is there is a new center formation and it is able to slow down a bit to say 15 vs 20 mph, then we may have a different story. Also, lets not forget that this relocation if it is what happens to the future track? Is it now going to go north of the islands running a gambit between the greater antilles and the bahamas (more conducive for development) or it will travel over the greater antilles causing it to dissipate.
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Re: ATL: TROPICAL STORM ANA (02L)

#1749 Postby knotimpaired » Sun Aug 16, 2009 11:48 am

Does anyone know what time we will see the results from the recon flight?
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Re: ATL: TROPICAL STORM ANA (02L)

#1750 Postby paintplaye » Sun Aug 16, 2009 11:50 am

alienstorm wrote:It may just be that their is a new center forming WNW of the old previous one, it will interesting to see if:

a) Convention fires up around the new center or if it just a burst
b) slower forward speed

While the dry air has hampered it, the fast forward motion is doing a lot more damage, however is there is a new center formation and it is able to slow down a bit to say 15 vs 20 mph, then we may have a different story. Also, lets not forget that this relocation if it is what happens to the future track? Is it now going to go north of the islands running a gambit between the greater antilles and the bahamas (more conducive for development) or it will travel over the greater antilles causing it to dissipate.


I agree with the new convection just forming to the NW. I don't know if the storm is so much moving in that direction. I think we need more time to see the general motion. I still think it is moving pretty much west, but we will see if a new center forms or if it starts a more WNW movement.
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#1751 Postby KWT » Sun Aug 16, 2009 11:51 am

It is quite possible we have had an relocation given its jumped recently, or if not then the whole thing is now on a solid WNW track. Either way its certainly some interesting developments.

A good 0.5 degrees above 15N now I'd guess, either that or the system has opened up on the southern side, both are possible...
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#1752 Postby Gustywind » Sun Aug 16, 2009 11:53 am

Making a come-back as a new burst is repopping quickly...
Image
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Re:

#1753 Postby paintplaye » Sun Aug 16, 2009 11:56 am

KWT wrote:It is quite possible we have had an relocation given its jumped recently, or if not then the whole thing is now on a solid WNW track. Either way its certainly some interesting developments.

A good 0.5 degrees above 15N now I'd guess, either that or the system has opened up on the southern side, both are possible...


I don't think we will know until we get more convection. It is looking a little better though.

Edit: Turn latlon on and next frame, we should have a better idea of the movement. If it follows the border of the 15, then it is moving west.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html
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Re: ATL: TROPICAL STORM ANA (Models)

#1754 Postby jinftl » Sun Aug 16, 2009 11:57 am

There is a right shift of a few models in latest runs...be interesting to see if this is a trend...some models that showed tracks south of hispanola and cuba, now show tracks over cuba and hispanola....if this right shift continues, tracks north of cuba and hispanola woudl have big implications for future intensity since now we are talking a system over water.


Latest runs...
Image

Prior runs...
Image
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#1755 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Aug 16, 2009 11:58 am

URNT15 KNHC 161649
AF300 0102A ANA HDOB 07 20090816
164230 1643N 05943W 4098 07432 0422 -150 -248 045012 013 999 999 03
164300 1643N 05940W 4098 07437 0422 -150 -245 049013 013 999 999 03
164330 1643N 05938W 4108 07417 0420 -149 -244 056013 013 017 000 03
164400 1642N 05936W 4228 07199 0410 -136 -244 071014 016 026 000 03
164430 1642N 05934W 4333 07015 0400 -120 -241 081016 016 026 002 00
164500 1641N 05932W 4449 06812 0386 -106 -241 089014 014 023 000 03
164530 1641N 05930W 4592 06559 0365 -091 -241 094013 014 019 000 03
164600 1640N 05928W 4771 06270 0346 -068 -238 087016 018 017 000 03
164630 1640N 05926W 4956 05966 0329 -047 -235 087017 018 019 000 03
164700 1640N 05923W 5143 05677 0310 -030 -233 083017 017 018 000 03
164730 1639N 05921W 5324 05398 0291 -016 -229 094019 020 018 000 03
164800 1639N 05919W 5515 05117 0094 -005 -222 098021 023 018 000 03
164830 1638N 05917W 5669 04896 0091 +010 -213 095025 027 018 000 03
164900 1638N 05915W 5843 04649 0078 +028 -202 093023 024 019 000 03
164930 1638N 05914W 6019 04418 0083 +047 -195 094023 023 018 000 00
165000 1637N 05912W 6190 04188 0095 +059 -187 092023 024 020 000 03
165030 1637N 05910W 6374 03947 0103 +069 -175 094024 025 021 000 00
165100 1637N 05908W 6577 03687 0114 +077 -167 107021 022 020 000 03
165130 1636N 05907W 6764 03452 0123 +083 -154 110024 024 021 000 03
165200 1636N 05905W 7052 03104 0130 +093 -139 117025 027 022 000 03
$$
;

Takeoff.
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#1756 Postby KWT » Sun Aug 16, 2009 12:05 pm

Not really much of a difference unless the ULL gets out of the area but I think when the plot for the 18z comes through (providing recon find a closed center...) we will see another shift right...
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#1757 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Aug 16, 2009 12:05 pm

URNT15 KNHC 161659
AF300 0102A ANA HDOB 08 20090816
165230 1636N 05903W 7308 02800 0128 +107 -124 105029 030 021 000 03
165300 1635N 05901W 7519 02561 0126 +122 -113 107036 038 019 000 03
165330 1635N 05900W 7724 02333 0132 +133 -103 104036 037 010 000 03
165400 1636N 05858W 7930 02121 0141 +142 -088 098035 036 020 000 03
165430 1637N 05857W 8139 01896 0138 +154 -070 097037 038 022 000 00
165500 1638N 05855W 8316 01712 0135 +165 -051 099036 038 022 000 00
165530 1638N 05854W 8458 01562 0133 +168 -021 096035 036 023 000 00
165600 1639N 05853W 8424 01598 0131 +170 -003 095036 037 024 000 00
165630 1640N 05852W 8425 01598 0132 +169 -003 096035 035 023 000 00
165700 1640N 05850W 8438 01584 0133 +168 +000 095034 035 026 000 00
165730 1641N 05849W 8429 01595 0130 +169 +014 094033 034 027 000 03
165800 1642N 05848W 8426 01597 0131 +170 +021 093034 034 024 000 00
165830 1643N 05846W 8430 01593 0131 +169 +028 095034 034 026 000 00
165900 1643N 05845W 8432 01590 0131 +170 +033 097035 035 027 000 03
165930 1644N 05844W 8431 01590 0131 +169 +037 096034 035 026 000 00
170000 1645N 05843W 8433 01588 0129 +170 +041 098035 036 028 000 00
170030 1645N 05841W 8424 01600 0130 +170 +045 099034 034 026 000 03
170100 1646N 05840W 8434 01590 0128 +173 +048 094034 035 028 000 03
170130 1647N 05839W 8433 01590 0129 +170 +052 095034 035 028 000 00
170200 1648N 05837W 8434 01588 0128 +172 +055 097035 036 026 000 00
$$
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#1758 Postby KWT » Sun Aug 16, 2009 12:06 pm

I'd estimate a 3hr average of motion of about 290 degrees, but it has to be said if the center is relocating that isn't really a true reflection of the motion.
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Re:

#1759 Postby jinftl » Sun Aug 16, 2009 12:06 pm

What is interesting is that a change in heading from even 275 to 295 deg could mean the difference between death over land or skirting the coast only.

KWT wrote:Not really much of a difference unless the ULL gets out of the area but I think when the plot for the 18z comes through (providing recon find a closed center...) we will see another shift right...
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Re: ATL: TROPICAL STORM ANA (02L)

#1760 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 16, 2009 12:09 pm

A good comeback for Ana.

Will plane find a stronger storm?

Image
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