ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION CLAUDETTE (04L)

[CrazyC83]

Yeah 50kts sounds about right for now, right on the NHC forecast as well...still has probably a good 2hrs offshore which will be interesting to watch and see whether recon gets any higher winds.

The critical factor IMO will be where it makes landfall. If it misses the peninsula that jumps out at the Big Bend and heads west towards Destin and Fort Walton Beach, I wouldn't be surprised at all if this becomes Hurricane Claudette.

[CrazyC83]

The outflow is really blossoming! Wouldn't be surprised to see a 50kt storm by landfall.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/loop-vis.html

That is my guess for the CURRENT intensity. I'd put a Hurricane Watch out on the coast.

[tolakram]

16:45:00Z 29.133N 84.850W 924.1 mb
(~ 27.29 inHg) 782 meters
(~ 2,566 feet) 1011.9 mb
(~ 29.88 inHg) - From 139° at 54 knots
(From the SE at ~ 62.1 mph) 17.5°C
(~ 63.5°F) 7.0°C
(~ 44.6°F) 55 knots
(~ 63.2 mph) 59 knots
(~ 67.8 mph) 21 mm/hr
(~ 0.83 in/hr) 57.9 knots (~ 66.6 mph)
Tropical Storm 107.3%

Surface estimate is actually 66.6 mph

No, I believe that was error flagged.

[drezee]

16:45:00Z 29.133N 84.850W 924.1 mb
(~ 27.29 inHg) 782 meters
(~ 2,566 feet) 1011.9 mb
(~ 29.88 inHg) - From 139° at 54 knots
(From the SE at ~ 62.1 mph) 17.5°C
(~ 63.5°F) 7.0°C
(~ 44.6°F) 55 knots
(~ 63.2 mph) 59 knots
(~ 67.8 mph) 21 mm/hr
(~ 0.83 in/hr) 57.9 knots (~ 66.6 mph)
Tropical Storm 107.3%

Surface estimate is actually 66.6 mph

No, I believe that was error flagged.

No Flag:

164500 2908N 08451W 9241 00782 0119 +175 +070 139054 055 059 021 00

[CrazyC83]

The 59 kt SFMR was not flagged. However, the fact it is near shore in shallow water may reduce its reliability somewhat.

[The Eye Wall]

The outflow is really blossoming! Wouldn't be surprised to see a 50kt storm by landfall.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/loop-vis.html

That is my guess for the CURRENT intensity. I'd put a Hurricane Watch out on the coast.

I can agree with this. It's going to be a very, very small area that see's winds over 40 mph though.

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 161654
AF304 0104A CYCLONE HDOB 10 20090816
164730 2913N 08445W 9248 00795 0138 +190 +069 147043 044 045 008 00
164800 2914N 08443W 9252 00793 0141 +190 +072 145044 045 045 008 00
164830 2916N 08442W 9248 00800 0143 +189 +074 144044 045 043 009 00
164900 2917N 08441W 9250 00799 0144 +194 +076 142043 044 045 007 00
164930 2918N 08440W 9249 00802 0147 +192 +079 142044 045 043 008 00
165000 2919N 08438W 9250 00802 0150 +188 +081 143044 045 042 008 00
165030 2920N 08437W 9248 00806 0152 +188 +082 143045 046 040 009 00
165100 2921N 08436W 9250 00805 0154 +185 +082 141046 048 042 008 00
165130 2922N 08434W 9245 00812 0158 +180 +081 141046 047 041 010 03
165200 2923N 08433W 9248 00811 0158 +184 +080 142046 047 039 008 00
165230 2925N 08432W 9246 00815 0161 +185 +079 144045 045 040 008 00
165300 2926N 08430W 9249 00814 0162 +190 +079 144045 047 039 009 00
165330 2927N 08429W 9254 00811 0164 +187 +079 143044 044 038 009 00
165400 2928N 08428W 9250 00816 0165 +190 +080 143043 043 040 008 00
165430 2929N 08427W 9248 00820 0167 +185 +081 145042 043 039 008 00
165500 2930N 08425W 9251 00818 0171 +181 +081 145042 043 039 010 00
165530 2931N 08424W 9253 00818 0173 +180 +080 144041 042 038 010 00
165600 2932N 08423W 9240 00831 0175 +175 +079 141039 041 037 009 00
165630 2934N 08421W 9260 00812 0176 +174 +077 142038 040 036 008 00
165700 2935N 08420W 9244 00826 0173 +181 +076 145039 040 037 007 00
$$
;

Decent sized area of tropical storm winds. Note the very high pressure in the area.

[CrazyC83]

URNT12 KNHC 161655
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042009
A. 16/16:43:20Z
B. 29 deg 04 min N
084 deg 56 min W
C. 925 mb 754 m
D. 35 kt
E. 285 deg 11 nm
F. 072 deg 28 kt
G. 302 deg 25 nm
H. EXTRAP 1008 mb
I. 20 C / 767 m
J. 23 C / 766 m
K. 9 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 9
O. 0.02 / 1.5 nm
P. AF304 0104A CYCLONE OB 02
MAX FL WIND 28 KT NW QUAD 16:34:30Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 54 KT NE QUAD 16:44:40Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 925 MB
;

[KWT]

Very intetresting Crazy, I agree it does totally depend on exactly where it makes landfall and we are back to wobble watching!
again!

[drezee]

tons of at least 50mph surface estimates:

16:48:00Z 29.233N 84.717W 925.2 mb
(~ 27.32 inHg) 793 meters
(~ 2,602 feet) 1014.1 mb
(~ 29.95 inHg) - From 145° at 44 knots
(From the SE at ~ 50.6 mph) 19.0°C
(~ 66.2°F) 7.2°C
(~ 45.0°F) 45 knots
(~ 51.7 mph) 45 knots
(~ 51.7 mph) 8 mm/hr
(~ 0.31 in/hr) 44.0 knots (~ 50.6 mph)
Tropical Storm 100.0%

[Brent]

URNT12 KNHC 161655
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042009
A. 16/16:43:20Z
B. 29 deg 04 min N
084 deg 56 min W
C. 925 mb 754 m
D. 35 kt
E. 285 deg 11 nm
F. 072 deg 28 kt
G. 302 deg 25 nm
H. EXTRAP 1008 mb
I. 20 C / 767 m
J. 23 C / 766 m
K. 9 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 9
O. 0.02 / 1.5 nm
P. AF304 0104A CYCLONE OB 02
MAX FL WIND 28 KT NW QUAD 16:34:30Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 54 KT NE QUAD 16:44:40Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 925 MB
;

[drezee]

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 16th day of the month at 16:55Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 304)
Tropical Depression: Number 4 (flight originating in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 02
A. Time of Center Fix: 16th day of the month at 16:43:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 29°04'N 84°56'W (29.0667N 84.9333W)
B. Center Fix Location: 88 miles (142 km) to the SSE (150°) from Panama City, FL, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 754m (2,474ft) at 925mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 35kts (~ 40.3mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 11 nautical miles (13 statute miles) to the WNW (285°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 72° at 28kts (From the ENE at ~ 32.2mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 25 nautical miles (29 statute miles) to the WNW (302°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1008mb (29.77 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 767m (2,516ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 23°C (73°F) at a pressure alt. of 766m (2,513ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 9°C (48°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 925mb (If this vortex is from mid 1990's or earlier 925mb might be incorrect. See note.)
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1.5 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 28kts (~ 32.2mph) in the northwest quadrant at 16:34:30Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 54kts (~ 62.1mph) in the northeast quadrant at 16:44:40Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 925mb

Surface estimate came from NW quad as I stated...supp vortex should be interesting...

[StormTracker]

Predicting that the tropics would get active in mid-August, how did you ever come to that conclusion??? Just kidding you....climatology was on your side (although there were many other voices saying the same thing...including NOAA, Dr. Gray, etc)

well I did forecast several weeks ago that the "switch" would turn on in the Atlantic (although thought maybe a bit later like Aug 20 something...so I'm about 1 week off I guess) ....and looks like it will verify.

He is a gator fan so that would account for the boasting

The switch is on!!! Now, back to your regularly scheduled thread, Claudette...

[Noles2006]

Haha, can hear the chairs on the middle deck getting blown around... the first band is just arriving...

[drezee]

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 16th day of the month at 16:55Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 304)
Tropical Depression: Number 4 (flight originating in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 02
A. Time of Center Fix: 16th day of the month at 16:43:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 29°04'N 84°56'W (29.0667N 84.9333W)
B. Center Fix Location: 88 miles (142 km) to the SSE (150°) from Panama City, FL, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 754m (2,474ft) at 925mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 35kts (~ 40.3mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 11 nautical miles (13 statute miles) to the WNW (285°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 72° at 28kts (From the ENE at ~ 32.2mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 25 nautical miles (29 statute miles) to the WNW (302°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1008mb (29.77 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 767m (2,516ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 23°C (73°F) at a pressure alt. of 766m (2,513ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 9°C (48°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 925mb (If this vortex is from mid 1990's or earlier 925mb might be incorrect. See note.)
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1.5 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 28kts (~ 32.2mph) in the northwest quadrant at 16:34:30Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 54kts (~ 62.1mph) in the northeast quadrant at 16:44:40Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 925mb

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 161704
AF304 0104A CYCLONE HDOB 11 20090816
165730 2936N 08419W 9252 00820 0173 +184 +075 147044 044 036 008 00
165800 2937N 08417W 9249 00825 0174 +188 +075 148044 044 036 008 00
165830 2938N 08416W 9251 00824 0175 +188 +077 145043 045 036 007 00
165900 2939N 08415W 9257 00819 0176 +191 +079 144046 048 036 007 00
165930 2940N 08414W 9243 00832 0174 +195 +081 147048 048 035 007 00
170000 2942N 08412W 9247 00829 0175 +195 +083 146047 047 033 006 00
170030 2943N 08411W 9250 00829 0178 +192 +083 144044 045 031 007 00
170100 2944N 08410W 9252 00832 0183 +189 +082 147040 042 029 007 03
170130 2943N 08408W 9242 00837 0182 +189 +082 144037 039 030 007 03
170200 2942N 08408W 9258 00825 0182 +189 +083 146037 038 034 006 00
170230 2941N 08407W 9244 00835 0182 +190 +082 146039 040 034 007 00
170300 2940N 08407W 9253 00826 0180 +190 +082 143040 041 035 006 00
170330 2939N 08406W 9244 00834 0180 +189 +081 142041 041 036 006 00
170400 2937N 08406W 9250 00827 0180 +187 +081 141043 043 039 007 00
170430 2936N 08405W 9223 00855 0185 +170 +081 148040 045 049 024 03
170500 2935N 08405W 9247 00828 0185 +165 +077 146044 045 046 022 00
170530 2934N 08404W 9250 00826 0181 +175 +071 147046 047 045 013 00
170600 2933N 08404W 9249 00827 0178 +180 +066 145047 047 043 010 00
170630 2932N 08403W 9252 00822 0177 +182 +065 148048 048 043 008 00
170700 2931N 08403W 9247 00826 0174 +188 +065 147049 050 042 007 00
$$
;

[EmeraldCoast1]

When you look at the long range loop from the NWS radar out of Tallahassee, it appears that the COC hasn't moved much in the last hour. Or does it just appear that way because of the long range imagery?

[jinftl]

Florida Wind Observations
(as of 1pm edt, 12pm cdt):

Pensacola NE8
Destin NE7
Panama City E12 G24
Apalachicola E12
Marianna E13 G22
Tallahassee E15

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 161714
AF304 0104A CYCLONE HDOB 12 20090816
170730 2930N 08402W 9249 00823 0172 +193 +068 145051 051 042 007 00
170800 2928N 08402W 9250 00822 0170 +196 +072 145050 051 041 007 00
170830 2927N 08401W 9249 00822 0170 +194 +076 147049 050 040 007 00
170900 2926N 08401W 9249 00823 0171 +193 +079 147047 048 040 006 00
170930 2925N 08400W 9248 00826 0172 +192 +081 146046 047 044 005 00
171000 2924N 08359W 9252 00821 0170 +195 +082 146047 047 041 006 00
171030 2923N 08359W 9248 00825 0171 +192 +082 147044 045 039 008 00
171100 2922N 08358W 9251 00822 0172 +190 +082 147045 048 040 008 00
171130 2921N 08358W 9246 00826 0169 +198 +080 147051 054 040 008 00
171200 2920N 08357W 9244 00828 0169 +196 +080 148053 053 040 009 00
171230 2919N 08357W 9248 00822 0171 +187 +080 147052 053 039 008 00
171300 2917N 08356W 9250 00821 0173 +181 +080 144049 051 039 008 00
171330 2916N 08356W 9245 00825 0173 +180 +079 144046 048 040 009 00
171400 2915N 08355W 9261 00813 0176 +184 +079 149044 045 040 008 03
171430 2914N 08356W 9252 00820 0173 +184 +079 147041 044 036 010 03
171500 2914N 08359W 9249 00819 0172 +177 +080 139041 044 039 008 03
171530 2915N 08401W 9251 00818 0171 +182 +080 143045 045 039 010 03
171600 2915N 08401W 9251 00818 0169 +182 +079 146043 044 039 008 03
171630 2915N 08405W 9248 00819 0168 +185 +078 144042 042 039 009 03
171700 2915N 08407W 9249 00820 0166 +188 +078 140041 042 041 008 00
$$
;

[tolakram]

Visible loop:
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... height=768

Winds up to 37kts at this buoy:

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=SGOF1