ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION CLAUDETTE (04L)

[Noles2006]

Nice little band coming through [looks like it might train in for a while] here in Wakulla County...

[Jag95]

When you look at the long range loop from the NWS radar out of Tallahassee, it appears that the COC hasn't moved much in the last hour. Or does it just appear that way because of the long range imagery?

Long range + short loop = reading glasses. It's not worth it.

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 161724
AF304 0104A CYCLONE HDOB 13 20090816
171730 2915N 08409W 9248 00817 0163 +195 +078 134042 043 038 008 00
171800 2915N 08411W 9248 00818 0162 +196 +078 135043 043 037 008 00
171830 2915N 08413W 9253 00812 0162 +196 +079 137042 042 037 006 00
171900 2915N 08415W 9252 00812 0162 +191 +080 140040 041 039 007 00
171930 2915N 08417W 9249 00815 0161 +190 +081 140040 040 039 008 00
172000 2915N 08419W 9252 00809 0159 +193 +081 142037 038 040 008 00
172030 2915N 08421W 9246 00814 0159 +189 +080 140038 039 039 010 00
172100 2915N 08423W 9248 00813 0158 +190 +080 140038 039 040 010 00
172130 2915N 08425W 9249 00810 0158 +190 +079 141040 040 040 009 00
172200 2915N 08427W 9249 00809 0157 +190 +079 140040 041 040 007 00
172230 2915N 08429W 9252 00806 0156 +186 +079 139040 041 040 008 00
172300 2915N 08431W 9248 00808 0154 +189 +080 138040 040 040 008 00
172330 2915N 08433W 9245 00809 0153 +186 +081 138040 041 041 008 00
172400 2915N 08435W 9247 00807 0154 +180 +081 137042 042 041 009 03
172430 2914N 08437W 9254 00799 0150 +185 +081 138041 042 041 010 00
172500 2913N 08439W 9248 00802 0152 +177 +080 134041 042 040 008 03
172530 2913N 08441W 9247 00803 0153 +170 +079 137038 038 043 011 00
172600 2912N 08442W 9249 00801 0152 +169 +077 147037 040 043 012 00
172630 2911N 08443W 9252 00796 0145 +187 +075 152031 031 040 010 03
172700 2910N 08445W 9250 00796 0140 +197 +076 148029 030 036 007 00
$$
;

Working the SE quad.

[cyclonic chronic]

u can currently see the center on vis sat. its shallow but there. if it had 12-18 more hrs over water imo wed have our 1st hurricane.

[KWT]

Looks like the center is wobbling around somewhat, at least on the radar. Seems like its on a broad 330 track though like its been all day, just wobbling about as you'd expect. Pretty much bang on track.

[Sanibel]

Looks like it's still headed NW and towards land.

Can't see it getting too strong with that dry air around the center to the south.

[CrazyC83]

On the current course, it will be VERY close on whether it makes it ashore at Indian Pass or stays over water. The direction needed to hit Indian Pass at this point is about 330.

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 161735
AF304 0104A CYCLONE HDOB 14 20090816
172730 2909N 08447W 9248 00796 0142 +185 +079 149030 031 039 018 00
172800 2908N 08448W 9246 00797 0144 +170 +081 150032 033 046 019 00
172830 2908N 08450W 9248 00792 0142 +166 +079 147038 044 052 045 03
172900 2907N 08451W 9245 00797 0143 +167 +077 163030 031 057 030 03
172930 2906N 08453W 9250 00788 0140 +170 +076 175031 031 039 012 03
173000 2906N 08455W 9255 00779 0132 +177 +074 172032 033 042 014 00
173030 2906N 08456W 9251 00780 0127 +181 +073 178032 034 043 014 00
173100 2906N 08458W 9249 00778 0117 +195 +073 189035 036 043 010 00
173130 2907N 08500W 9245 00773 0107 +198 +075 201033 035 041 009 03
173200 2907N 08502W 9252 00759 0096 +205 +078 208019 023 041 008 03
173230 2908N 08503W 9248 00756 0089 +207 +083 212007 011 036 004 03
173300 2908N 08505W 9238 00764 0086 +207 +087 325007 013 025 005 00
173330 2909N 08506W 9254 00750 0082 +224 +091 357021 022 022 005 00
173400 2910N 08508W 9257 00750 0084 +233 +095 010028 030 028 005 00
173430 2910N 08510W 9255 00762 0101 +210 +098 013027 029 999 999 03
173500 2909N 08511W 9235 00788 0110 +205 +101 358024 028 999 999 03
173530 2907N 08510W 9251 00769 0107 +201 +102 333020 021 027 004 03
173600 2906N 08508W 9237 00780 0102 +209 +100 293020 023 028 005 00
173630 2905N 08507W 9245 00773 0107 +204 +098 270021 023 028 005 00
173700 2904N 08505W 9246 00776 0113 +197 +094 249024 025 029 004 00
$$
;

44 kt FL, 46 kt SFMR (57 flagged)

[lester]

[DanKellFla]

It's really starting to organize. Soon enough, the eye will be clearly visible. Good thing that this is going to make landfall sooner rather than later.

[Sanibel]

That does look like an eye hook doesn't it?

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 161744
AF304 0104A CYCLONE HDOB 15 20090816
173730 2903N 08504W 9251 00777 0119 +194 +091 235026 027 033 006 00
173800 2902N 08503W 9244 00787 0123 +195 +088 227027 028 033 006 00
173830 2901N 08501W 9248 00786 0127 +194 +084 222027 027 035 005 00
173900 2900N 08500W 9245 00793 0130 +195 +082 214027 028 034 006 00
173930 2859N 08459W 9249 00792 0133 +195 +080 208028 028 033 007 00
174000 2858N 08457W 9249 00793 0137 +191 +079 212027 027 032 009 00
174030 2857N 08456W 9246 00798 0140 +188 +078 208027 027 034 013 00
174100 2856N 08455W 9251 00793 0144 +176 +075 211027 028 036 010 00
174130 2855N 08453W 9250 00797 0142 +191 +072 209026 027 033 008 00
174200 2854N 08452W 9249 00799 0143 +195 +072 207024 025 032 006 00
174230 2853N 08451W 9248 00802 0145 +195 +074 204023 023 032 005 00
174300 2852N 08449W 9250 00802 0146 +197 +078 203023 023 031 005 00
174330 2851N 08448W 9249 00802 0148 +198 +082 197024 024 028 007 03
174400 2851N 08446W 9250 00803 0148 +195 +085 195026 028 031 005 00
174430 2850N 08444W 9247 00806 0150 +193 +087 191028 029 031 006 00
174500 2850N 08443W 9249 00804 0149 +191 +088 189032 033 040 006 00
174530 2850N 08441W 9261 00796 0151 +190 +088 184035 036 041 007 00
174600 2850N 08439W 9249 00807 0154 +182 +087 181035 036 039 007 03
174630 2849N 08438W 9251 00805 0158 +178 +084 186035 036 043 006 00
174700 2849N 08436W 9251 00810 0160 +174 +079 179038 040 048 020 00
$$
;

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042009
200 PM EDT SUN AUG 16 2009

...AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE FINDS CLAUDETTE STRONGER...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA
BORDER EASTWARD TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.1 WEST OR ABOUT
40 MILES... 65 KM...SOUTH OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA AND ABOUT 160
MILES...255 KM...SOUTHEAST OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA.

CLAUDETTE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR.
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY...AND ON THIS FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER WILL BE NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST OF FLORIDA
THIS EVENING.

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
POSSIBLE PRIOR TO LANDFALL.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON AIRCRAFT DATA IS
1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...THE
BIG BEND REGION OF FLORIDA...SOUTHERN ALABAMA...AND SOUTHWESTERN
GEORGIA NEAR THE PATH OF THE CENTER.

STORM TIDE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MAXIMUM WATER LEVELS OF 3 TO 5
FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...
INCLUDING THE BIG BEND.

...SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...29.1N 85.1W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 14 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/ROBERTS

TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042009
1800 UTC SUN AUG 16 2009

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA
BORDER EASTWARD TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.1N 85.1W AT 16/1800Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 15SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.1N 85.1W AT 16/1800Z
AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.2N 84.2W

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 30.2N 85.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 15SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 32.1N 87.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 34.0N 88.2W...DISSIPATING INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.1N 85.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042009
200 PM EDT SUN AUG 16 2009

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT CLAUDETTE HAS CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY. BASED ON A MAXIMUM
FLIGHT LEVEL WIND 54 KT MEASURED AT AN ELEVATION OF ABOUT 2500
FEET...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 45 KT. THE 12-HOUR
FORECAST INTENSITY IS ALSO ADJUSTED UPWARD TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
POSSIBILITY FOR ADDITONAL STRENGTHENING PRIOR TO LANDFALL. THE WIND
RADII HAVE ALSO BEEN EXPANDED BASED ON THE AIRCRAFT DATA AND THE
CHANGE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 16/1800Z 29.1N 85.1W 45 KT
12HR VT 17/0000Z 30.2N 85.8W 55 KT
24HR VT 17/1200Z 32.1N 87.1W 35 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 18/0000Z 34.0N 88.2W 20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
48HR VT 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/ROBERTS

[KWT]

Winds now upto 45kts offically...bet recon finds some higher winds before this heads inland though!

[CrazyC83]

I would have put out a Hurricane Watch from Apalachicola to Destin personally, since I think the intensity and potential is cutting it too close.

[CrazyC83]

URNT12 KNHC 161750
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042009
A. 16/17:33:00Z
B. 29 deg 08 min N
085 deg 05 min W
C. 925 mb 753 m
D. 57 kt
E. 094 deg 12 nm
F. 145 deg 45 kt
G. 084 deg 55 nm
H. EXTRAP 1008 mb
I. 19 C / 762 m
J. 22 C / 764 m
K. 9 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345 / 9
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF304 0104A CYCLONE OB 05
MAX FL WIND 54 KT NE QUAD 16:45:00Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 925 MB
SFC CNTR 276 / 6 NM FROM FL CNTR
;

[Derek Ortt]

went with hurricane conditions possible in the 1 p.m. nwhhc update. This is too much like Humberto

[RL3AO]

NOT A FORECAST. JUST AN EXTRAPOLATION OF TWO POINTS.

[drezee]

if it stays vertically stacked it will intensify and move onshore soon...center looks to be coming out of the western side... which may bring a weaker system more west...

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 161754
AF304 0104A CYCLONE HDOB 16 20090816
174730 2849N 08434W 9251 00806 0163 +165 +075 166041 042 051 023 00
174800 2848N 08433W 9249 00813 0166 +163 +071 160035 037 046 022 03
174830 2847N 08433W 9250 00809 0166 +162 +068 166035 036 051 031 03
174900 2846N 08432W 9242 00818 0170 +158 +066 167039 041 048 020 00
174930 2845N 08431W 9244 00815 0168 +159 +064 165042 043 044 016 03
175000 2844N 08430W 9240 00818 0167 +163 +062 167042 044 043 014 03
175030 2843N 08429W 9253 00807 0164 +174 +063 166042 043 046 013 00
175100 2842N 08428W 9250 00810 0167 +165 +064 165044 044 047 014 00
175130 2842N 08426W 9248 00814 0169 +163 +065 166042 042 046 016 00
175200 2841N 08425W 9248 00815 0168 +170 +066 166041 041 045 016 00
175230 2840N 08424W 9248 00815 0169 +165 +067 167042 042 045 017 00
175300 2840N 08423W 9245 00819 0170 +168 +067 169042 043 046 015 00
175330 2839N 08421W 9264 00804 0171 +169 +068 166042 043 045 015 03
175400 2838N 08421W 9243 00821 0171 +163 +071 165043 045 050 017 00
175430 2836N 08420W 9251 00813 0170 +166 +071 169047 047 049 016 00
175500 2835N 08420W 9247 00817 0171 +164 +071 165043 045 050 017 00
175530 2834N 08420W 9249 00816 0171 +168 +071 167042 043 051 016 00
175600 2833N 08419W 9249 00816 0173 +164 +070 166040 041 051 016 00
175630 2832N 08419W 9249 00817 0173 +168 +070 163040 041 048 015 03
175700 2831N 08418W 9249 00818 0171 +174 +070 164042 043 048 015 00
$$

Lots of SFMR readings around 50.