ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA (02L)

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022009
1100 PM AST SUN AUG 16 2009

...ANA MOVING ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO...THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...MONTSERRAT...
ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...ANGUILLA...ST. MAARTEN...
ST. MARTIN...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...GUADELOUPE...ST. BARTHELEMY...
AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO WESTWARD TO CABO BEATA.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.2 WEST OR ABOUT
25 MILES... 40 KM...SOUTHEAST OF GUADELOUPE.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 26 MPH...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK ANA WILL MOVE OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND APPROACH HISPANIOLA ON MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS...BUT ANA COULD DEGENERATE INTO A TROPICAL WAVE ON MONDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

ANA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN
ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES OVER
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

...SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...16.0N 61.2W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 26 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022009
0300 UTC MON AUG 17 2009

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO...THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...MONTSERRAT...
ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...ANGUILLA...ST. MAARTEN...
ST. MARTIN...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...GUADELOUPE...ST. BARTHELEMY...
AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO WESTWARD TO CABO BEATA.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 61.2W AT 17/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 23 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 61.2W AT 17/0300Z
AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 60.0W

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 16.7N 64.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 18.1N 68.6W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 19.6N 72.6W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 21.2N 76.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 24.0N 81.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 26.0N 84.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 28.0N 86.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 61.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022009
1100 PM AST SUN AUG 16 2009

RADAR IMAGERY FROM GUADELOUPE SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF
ANA HAS TURNED TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND IS MOVING QUICKLY AT
AN INITIAL MOTION OF 285/23. ALTHOUGH SOME DEEP CONVECTION HAS
RECENTLY RE-DEVELOPED...IT IS ORIENTED LINEARLY ALONG A NORTH-SOUTH
AXIS AND APPEARS MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF A TROPICAL WAVE. THE CENTER
APPEARS REASONABLY WELL-DEFINED ON THE GUADELOUPE RADAR BUT THIS IS
LIKELY DEPICTING A MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION RATHER THAN ONE AT THE
SURFACE. AT THIS TIME WE WOULD RATHER NOT STOP ADVISORIES WHILE
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES. HOWEVER IF
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THOSE ISLANDS CONFIRM THE LACK OF A
CENTER...ADVISORIES WILL BE TERMINATED EARLY MONDAY.

VERY FEW OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW ANY RE-STRENGTHENING...AND A
FEW SUCH AS THE GFS...HWRF...AND GFDL LOSE THE VORTEX AFTER ABOUT
36 HOURS. THE TRACK GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT ANA SHOULD BE MOVING
OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA IN 24-36 HOURS...AND IT IS
DOUBTFUL THAT ITS CIRCULATION WILL MAKE IT ACROSS THAT ISLAND
INTACT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS ANA BECOMING A REMNANT LOW BY
36 HOURS AFTER IT BEGINS CROSSING LAND...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT IT
COULD BECOME AN OPEN WAVE AT ANY TIME. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
SHIFTED NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TOWARD THE SHALLOW LAYER BAM
TRACK AND IN LINE WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF SINCE IT IS ASSUMED THAT
THE REMNANT CIRCULATION WILL BE STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.

TROPICAL STORM WATCHES WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL IT IS CLEAR THAT
ANA WILL NOT RE-STRENGTHEN OR UNTIL IT PASSES THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
LATER TONIGHT.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 17/0300Z 16.0N 61.2W 30 KT
12HR VT 17/1200Z 16.7N 64.4W 30 KT
24HR VT 18/0000Z 18.1N 68.6W 30 KT
36HR VT 18/1200Z 19.6N 72.6W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 19/0000Z 21.2N 76.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 20/0000Z 24.0N 81.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 21/0000Z 26.0N 84.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 22/0000Z 28.0N 86.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[jinftl]

Jumped from 15.2 N at 8pm to 16.0 N at 11 pm...clearly moving wnw (or center reformed north)

[Blown Away]

At 11pm Ana was positioned further N than the previous track. If Ana can slow down, some of the models are sniffing skirting just N of Hispaniola, maybe she can get her act together. Track is getting more right biased!

[ROCK]

still looks west to me at a fast clip....but if the NHC says WNW then I will go with that...

[Evil Jeremy]

Closed circulation or not, lots of convection popping up now: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-wv.html

[ROCK]

Closed circulation or not, lots of convection popping up now: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-wv.html

I tried finding the Martinigue radar for the island.....I saw it at another forum...interesting to see a broad circulation of showers.......still some dry air ahead but then it gets a little moister farther into the carib....just needs to miss land masses or its EL Toasto....

[paintplaye]

The whole "wave" or storm looks to be moving west to me. I think the center just formed to the north some.

[rrm]

The whole "wave" or storm looks to be moving west to me. I think the center just formed to the north some.

i agree it still looks to be moving west and building up a little convection. can someone explain to me what caused the models to shift a little bit north?

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

When ( I think it is likely, if not already) Ana opens back up to a wave, her forward progress will be more westerly rather than NW. The models taking her furhter north were based on a closed circulation. When open, she should track more westerly, under the islands.

I would think that the upper level low to her NW will continue to inhibit her and cause shear out ahead as it drops further south, thwarting her attempts at regrouping.

When she gets to the NW caribbean, IF the upper low isn't still affecting her environment negatively, then she might be able to get going again in those warm waters, which would allow a more northward component to her motion and take her into the gulf, where intensification could occur.

A stalled front would tend to predict northward to NNE movement once in the gulf, as she takes a path ahead of the frontal boundary.

(That upper low off the US SE Coast is a bit confounding though. It looks pretty substantial and suprising that as fast as it is moving southwest, that the high isn't expected to build back in behind it, as it would usually do. I would think that building high would tend to block Ana and Bill from a northern path. Maybe Bill is too far to the East and is planning on scooting up the east side of the ridge.)

[Blown Away]

IMO, Ana will likely open up into a wave based on the current status. Assuming Ana survives, IMO the 00z models will tell the tale, Ana needs to avoid Hispaniola, the NHC repositioned the LLC/MLC further N and on the current track I don't see Ana missing Hispaniola to the S and likely dies over the mountains. Some models are shifting R and skirting the N coast of Hispaniola, so if the current WNW trend continues Ana may miss certain death to the N. I think I will wait for the next model run just because Ana's life may be coming to an end. I stay interested as long as convection keeps popping, and it is rate now!

[HouTXmetro]

Ana trying to show signs of life again.

[HurricaneHunter914]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn-l.jpg

Deep convection flaring right over the center. Ana really knows how to fight.

[bayoubebe]

IF Ana survives and IF Ana makes it toward the US or in the Gulf, when will that happen?
Sorry, but I can't read back 80 pages, too lazy.

[rrm]

any possibility we might see ana go back to ts status before hitting the island?

[Blown Away]

Deep reds popping over the LLC!!

[Gustywind]

[Tropics Guy]

Radar from Martinique..............

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... SAIC2.html

TG

[rrm]

Radar from Martinique..............

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... SAIC2.html

TG

i really dont see no northward component to that radar image

[paintplaye]

Deep reds popping over the LLC!!

Hmm lets see if it stays up. Maybe it was good the NHC didn't totally degrade it.

[Evil Jeremy]

Radar from Martinique..............

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... SAIC2.html

TG

Looks like an open wave to me.