Caribbean - Central America Weather
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http://www.meteo.gp/EspacePro/donnees/r ... 025500.png
I don't know if you can open this image,but it is an interresting one Thunder more frequent.
I don't know if you can open this image,but it is an interresting one Thunder more frequent.
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Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
Re:
HUC wrote:ligting,and distant thunder in the Nest of my location.No rain,winds were from the NW, or WNWsince 5pm,now from the SW since 8 30 pm.
Gpe radar show some rain,and a rotation in the clouds???
Interresting, same observation as i'm at Baie-Mahault (your NEST
not Nestlé lol) no rain here, winds are pretty calm! There's some rotation with west winds, so looks like a poor TD...tkanks for the info, whereas did you read your latests PM?
TD Ana moving across Guadeloupe...finally moving wnw
000
WTNT32 KNHC 170249
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022009
1100 PM AST SUN AUG 16 2009
...ANA MOVING ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO...THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...MONTSERRAT...
ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...ANGUILLA...ST. MAARTEN...
ST. MARTIN...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...GUADELOUPE...ST. BARTHELEMY...
AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO WESTWARD TO CABO BEATA.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.2 WEST OR ABOUT
25 MILES... 40 KM...SOUTHEAST OF GUADELOUPE.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 26 MPH...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK ANA WILL MOVE OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND APPROACH HISPANIOLA ON MONDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS...BUT ANA COULD DEGENERATE INTO A TROPICAL WAVE ON MONDAY.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.
ANA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN
ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES OVER
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
...SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...16.0N 61.2W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 26 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BERG
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Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
More on ANA...[/b]
[b]000
WTNT42 KNHC 170250
TCDAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022009
1100 PM AST SUN AUG 16 2009
RADAR IMAGERY FROM GUADELOUPE SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF
ANA HAS TURNED TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND IS MOVING QUICKLY AT
AN INITIAL MOTION OF 285/23. ALTHOUGH SOME DEEP CONVECTION HAS
RECENTLY RE-DEVELOPED...IT IS ORIENTED LINEARLY ALONG A NORTH-SOUTH
AXIS AND APPEARS MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF A TROPICAL WAVE. THE CENTER
APPEARS REASONABLY WELL-DEFINED ON THE GUADELOUPE RADAR BUT THIS IS
LIKELY DEPICTING A MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION RATHER THAN ONE AT THE
SURFACE. AT THIS TIME WE WOULD RATHER NOT STOP ADVISORIES WHILE
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES. HOWEVER IF
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THOSE ISLANDS CONFIRM THE LACK OF A
CENTER...ADVISORIES WILL BE TERMINATED EARLY MONDAY.
VERY FEW OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW ANY RE-STRENGTHENING...AND A
FEW SUCH AS THE GFS...HWRF...AND GFDL LOSE THE VORTEX AFTER ABOUT
36 HOURS. THE TRACK GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT ANA SHOULD BE MOVING
OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA IN 24-36 HOURS...AND IT IS
DOUBTFUL THAT ITS CIRCULATION WILL MAKE IT ACROSS THAT ISLAND
INTACT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS ANA BECOMING A REMNANT LOW BY
36 HOURS AFTER IT BEGINS CROSSING LAND...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT IT
COULD BECOME AN OPEN WAVE AT ANY TIME. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
SHIFTED NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TOWARD THE SHALLOW LAYER BAM
TRACK AND IN LINE WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF SINCE IT IS ASSUMED THAT
THE REMNANT CIRCULATION WILL BE STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.
TROPICAL STORM WATCHES WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL IT IS CLEAR THAT
ANA WILL NOT RE-STRENGTHEN OR UNTIL IT PASSES THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
LATER TONIGHT.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 17/0300Z 16.0N 61.2W 30 KT
12HR VT 17/1200Z 16.7N 64.4W 30 KT
24HR VT 18/0000Z 18.1N 68.6W 30 KT
36HR VT 18/1200Z 19.6N 72.6W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 19/0000Z 21.2N 76.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 20/0000Z 24.0N 81.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 21/0000Z 26.0N 84.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 22/0000Z 28.0N 86.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
$$
FORECASTER BERG
[b]000
WTNT42 KNHC 170250
TCDAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022009
1100 PM AST SUN AUG 16 2009
RADAR IMAGERY FROM GUADELOUPE SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF
ANA HAS TURNED TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND IS MOVING QUICKLY AT
AN INITIAL MOTION OF 285/23. ALTHOUGH SOME DEEP CONVECTION HAS
RECENTLY RE-DEVELOPED...IT IS ORIENTED LINEARLY ALONG A NORTH-SOUTH
AXIS AND APPEARS MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF A TROPICAL WAVE. THE CENTER
APPEARS REASONABLY WELL-DEFINED ON THE GUADELOUPE RADAR BUT THIS IS
LIKELY DEPICTING A MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION RATHER THAN ONE AT THE
SURFACE. AT THIS TIME WE WOULD RATHER NOT STOP ADVISORIES WHILE
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES. HOWEVER IF
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THOSE ISLANDS CONFIRM THE LACK OF A
CENTER...ADVISORIES WILL BE TERMINATED EARLY MONDAY.
VERY FEW OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW ANY RE-STRENGTHENING...AND A
FEW SUCH AS THE GFS...HWRF...AND GFDL LOSE THE VORTEX AFTER ABOUT
36 HOURS. THE TRACK GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT ANA SHOULD BE MOVING
OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA IN 24-36 HOURS...AND IT IS
DOUBTFUL THAT ITS CIRCULATION WILL MAKE IT ACROSS THAT ISLAND
INTACT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS ANA BECOMING A REMNANT LOW BY
36 HOURS AFTER IT BEGINS CROSSING LAND...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT IT
COULD BECOME AN OPEN WAVE AT ANY TIME. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
SHIFTED NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TOWARD THE SHALLOW LAYER BAM
TRACK AND IN LINE WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF SINCE IT IS ASSUMED THAT
THE REMNANT CIRCULATION WILL BE STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.
TROPICAL STORM WATCHES WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL IT IS CLEAR THAT
ANA WILL NOT RE-STRENGTHEN OR UNTIL IT PASSES THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
LATER TONIGHT.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 17/0300Z 16.0N 61.2W 30 KT
12HR VT 17/1200Z 16.7N 64.4W 30 KT
24HR VT 18/0000Z 18.1N 68.6W 30 KT
36HR VT 18/1200Z 19.6N 72.6W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 19/0000Z 21.2N 76.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 20/0000Z 24.0N 81.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 21/0000Z 26.0N 84.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 22/0000Z 28.0N 86.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
$$
FORECASTER BERG
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http://www.meteo.gp/EspacePro/donnees/r ... saique.gif
The center of TD ANA is just over my location...Pressure 1011mb,thunder,vey light rain,winds SO light.
The center of TD ANA is just over my location...Pressure 1011mb,thunder,vey light rain,winds SO light.
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http://www.meteo.gp/EspacePro/Radars.ph ... e=mosaique
It should work,this one is free access.
It should work,this one is free access.
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Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
Re:
HUC wrote:I shut down my computer;frequent thunder,and ligting .See you later guys...
Waouw, i understand, be vigilant and safe A...W
maybe a strong Tstorm is boombing a bit!!! 
I'm going with Morpheus too...
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Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
000
AWCA82 TJSJ 170340
RWSVI
WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1140 PM AST SUN AUG 16 2009
AT 11 PM AST...DOWNGRADED TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA WAS LOCATED NEAR
16.0 NORTH...61.2 WEST OR ABOUT 25 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GUADELOUPE.
THE DEPRESSION WAS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 26
MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK ANA WILL
MOVE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND APPROACH U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND ITS TERRITORIES OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS WERE NEAR 35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
AT 11 PM AST...THE CENTER OF ANA WAS DETECTED BY THE METEO FRANCE
RADAR...WHILE MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WERE AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND
SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS. SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA APPROACHES THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND COASTAL
WATERS...EXPECT ACTIVE WEATHER WITH HEAVY SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS
AND GUSTY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OVER LOW LEVEL
AREAS AS WELL AS POOR DRAINAGE LOCALITIES.
REMEMBER...THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS REMAIN UNDER A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH SINCE ANA IS EXPECTED TO PASS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE LOCAL AREA
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...AND TROPICAL STORM WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE.
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS...WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE
OVERNIGHT AS ANA MOVES ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL LOCAL WATERS THROUGH LATE MONDAY.$$
AWCA82 TJSJ 170340
RWSVI
WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1140 PM AST SUN AUG 16 2009
AT 11 PM AST...DOWNGRADED TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA WAS LOCATED NEAR
16.0 NORTH...61.2 WEST OR ABOUT 25 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GUADELOUPE.
THE DEPRESSION WAS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 26
MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK ANA WILL
MOVE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND APPROACH U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND ITS TERRITORIES OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS WERE NEAR 35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
AT 11 PM AST...THE CENTER OF ANA WAS DETECTED BY THE METEO FRANCE
RADAR...WHILE MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WERE AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND
SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS. SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA APPROACHES THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND COASTAL
WATERS...EXPECT ACTIVE WEATHER WITH HEAVY SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS
AND GUSTY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OVER LOW LEVEL
AREAS AS WELL AS POOR DRAINAGE LOCALITIES.
REMEMBER...THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS REMAIN UNDER A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH SINCE ANA IS EXPECTED TO PASS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE LOCAL AREA
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...AND TROPICAL STORM WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE.
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS...WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE
OVERNIGHT AS ANA MOVES ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL LOCAL WATERS THROUGH LATE MONDAY.$$
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Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
000
FXCA62 TJSJ 162041
AFDSJU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
441 PM AST SUN AUG 16 2009
.SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL STORM ANA HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION BUT WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT. SQUALLY WEATHER TO BEGIN
TO AFFECT THE ISLANDS OVERNIGHT AND DURING THE DAY MONDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...TROPICAL STORM ANA CONTINUING TO LOOK POORLY
ORGANIZED...WITH THE HURRICANE HUNTER CONFIRMING LACK OF A WELL
DEFINED CENTER. QUIKSCAT PASS AND BUOY DATA EARLIER SEEMED TO
POINT TO MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE PATTERN THAN A TROPICAL STORM...AND
SATELLITE EVOLUTION ALSO SUPPORTING THAT THEORY. JUST AS MUCH...OR
MORE CONVECTION ONGOING ON THE FAR NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
OVERALL LARGE SCALE TROUGHINESS...UNDER A TUTT JUST NORTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA. LOW EASTERLY JET ALSO LIKELY IN THIS REGION...WRAPPING
SOME SAHARAN DUST INTO THE SYSTEM. AS FOR THE MAIN VORT CENTER...A
FEW HUNDRED MILES EAST OF DOMINICA...A VERY FAST STORM MOTION DUE
TO VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS ONE OF SEVERAL NEGATIVE FACTORS
HOLDING DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AT BAY. NOT EXPECTING ANY
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION BEFORE REACHING THE LOCAL AREA. IN
FACT...DUE TO LACK OF ORGANIZATION AND STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW...ITS
NOW EXPECTED THAT THE VORT CENTER ARRIVES MUCH EARLIER THAN
EXPECTED...POSSIBLY IMPACTING THE USVI BY THE EARLY AM HOURS
MONDAY...AND PR BY NOON.
UNTIL THE FIRST SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTER EXTREME OF THE
CIRCULATION ARRIVE...WE SHOULD HAVE A RELATIVELY SUBSIDENT
PATTERN. SOME GUSTY WINDS AND SQUALLY WEATHER SHOULD HIT THE VI
WITH THE INITIAL WIND SURGE 02Z TONIGHT WITH BUILDING SEAS...AND
OVER PR BY 08Z-12Z. WILL KEEP A SOLID EYE ON ANY STRUCTURAL AND
INTENSITY CHANGES...BUT FOR NOW LOOKING LIKE WEAK IMPACTS FOR OUR
AREA...MUCH MORE SIMILAR TO A STRONGER WAVE THAN A TROPICAL STORM.
TROPICAL STORM BILL EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON MONDAY.
LATEST TPC TRACK HAS THE STORM WELL TO THE NORTHEAST ON THU.
TRENDED FCST DRIER FOR THU AS IT LOOKS LIKE WE COULD BE IN THE
SUBSIDENT SIDE OF WHAT SHOULD BE MAJOR HURRICANE BILL.
&&
.AVIATION...MVFR AT TMJZ WITH VCTS UNTIL AROUND 22Z. AFTERWARD
VFR...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS AN GUSTY WINDS HITTING THE VI BY 04-06Z
AND PR BY 10Z AT THE LATEST. WINDS SHOULD STAY BELOW 20 KT
SUSTAINED...NOT EXPECTING ANY AIRPORTS WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT LONG
LASTING IMPACTS OR CLOSURES FROM TROPICAL STORM ANA.
&&
.MARINE...SEAS OF 6-8 FT EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE WATERS ON
TUE. SINCE ONLY A WATCH IN EFFECT A SCA WILL GO INTO EFFECT TONIGHT
THROUGH TUE.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 90 79 91 / 70 70 60 20
STT 80 89 81 91 / 70 70 60 20
&&
.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR CENTRAL INTERIOR-CULEBRA-EASTERN
INTERIOR-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-NORTH CENTRAL-NORTHEAST-
NORTHWEST-PONCE AND VICINITY-SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-
SOUTHEAST-SOUTHWEST-VIEQUES-WESTERN INTERIOR.
VI...TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR ST CROIX-ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT
ISLANDS.
&&
$$
93/64
FXCA62 TJSJ 162041
AFDSJU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
441 PM AST SUN AUG 16 2009
.SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL STORM ANA HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION BUT WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT. SQUALLY WEATHER TO BEGIN
TO AFFECT THE ISLANDS OVERNIGHT AND DURING THE DAY MONDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...TROPICAL STORM ANA CONTINUING TO LOOK POORLY
ORGANIZED...WITH THE HURRICANE HUNTER CONFIRMING LACK OF A WELL
DEFINED CENTER. QUIKSCAT PASS AND BUOY DATA EARLIER SEEMED TO
POINT TO MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE PATTERN THAN A TROPICAL STORM...AND
SATELLITE EVOLUTION ALSO SUPPORTING THAT THEORY. JUST AS MUCH...OR
MORE CONVECTION ONGOING ON THE FAR NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
OVERALL LARGE SCALE TROUGHINESS...UNDER A TUTT JUST NORTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA. LOW EASTERLY JET ALSO LIKELY IN THIS REGION...WRAPPING
SOME SAHARAN DUST INTO THE SYSTEM. AS FOR THE MAIN VORT CENTER...A
FEW HUNDRED MILES EAST OF DOMINICA...A VERY FAST STORM MOTION DUE
TO VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS ONE OF SEVERAL NEGATIVE FACTORS
HOLDING DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AT BAY. NOT EXPECTING ANY
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION BEFORE REACHING THE LOCAL AREA. IN
FACT...DUE TO LACK OF ORGANIZATION AND STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW...ITS
NOW EXPECTED THAT THE VORT CENTER ARRIVES MUCH EARLIER THAN
EXPECTED...POSSIBLY IMPACTING THE USVI BY THE EARLY AM HOURS
MONDAY...AND PR BY NOON.
UNTIL THE FIRST SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTER EXTREME OF THE
CIRCULATION ARRIVE...WE SHOULD HAVE A RELATIVELY SUBSIDENT
PATTERN. SOME GUSTY WINDS AND SQUALLY WEATHER SHOULD HIT THE VI
WITH THE INITIAL WIND SURGE 02Z TONIGHT WITH BUILDING SEAS...AND
OVER PR BY 08Z-12Z. WILL KEEP A SOLID EYE ON ANY STRUCTURAL AND
INTENSITY CHANGES...BUT FOR NOW LOOKING LIKE WEAK IMPACTS FOR OUR
AREA...MUCH MORE SIMILAR TO A STRONGER WAVE THAN A TROPICAL STORM.
TROPICAL STORM BILL EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON MONDAY.
LATEST TPC TRACK HAS THE STORM WELL TO THE NORTHEAST ON THU.
TRENDED FCST DRIER FOR THU AS IT LOOKS LIKE WE COULD BE IN THE
SUBSIDENT SIDE OF WHAT SHOULD BE MAJOR HURRICANE BILL.
&&
.AVIATION...MVFR AT TMJZ WITH VCTS UNTIL AROUND 22Z. AFTERWARD
VFR...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS AN GUSTY WINDS HITTING THE VI BY 04-06Z
AND PR BY 10Z AT THE LATEST. WINDS SHOULD STAY BELOW 20 KT
SUSTAINED...NOT EXPECTING ANY AIRPORTS WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT LONG
LASTING IMPACTS OR CLOSURES FROM TROPICAL STORM ANA.
&&
.MARINE...SEAS OF 6-8 FT EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE WATERS ON
TUE. SINCE ONLY A WATCH IN EFFECT A SCA WILL GO INTO EFFECT TONIGHT
THROUGH TUE.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 90 79 91 / 70 70 60 20
STT 80 89 81 91 / 70 70 60 20
&&
.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR CENTRAL INTERIOR-CULEBRA-EASTERN
INTERIOR-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-NORTH CENTRAL-NORTHEAST-
NORTHWEST-PONCE AND VICINITY-SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-
SOUTHEAST-SOUTHWEST-VIEQUES-WESTERN INTERIOR.
VI...TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR ST CROIX-ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT
ISLANDS.
&&
$$
93/64
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