ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA (02L)

[paintplaye]

This storm is going to be a wait and see type storm. I don't expect much help from the models, when half of them can't even pick it up.

[thetruesms]

[img]http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/GOES04152009229YwTspq.jpg[img]

Looks very much like an open wave now. Wonder if NHC will find enough as it passes through to continue advisories.

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 20A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022009
200 AM AST MON AUG 17 2009

...ANA MOVES INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO...THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...MONTSERRAT...
ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...ANGUILLA...ST. MAARTEN...
ST. MARTIN...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...GUADELOUPE...ST. BARTHELEMY...
AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO WESTWARD TO CABO BEATA.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.4 WEST OR ABOUT
45 MILES...75 KM...WEST OF GUADELOUPE AND ABOUT 185 MILES...300
KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ST. CROIX.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 26 MPH...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...ANA WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND APPROACH HISPANIOLA
TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. HOWEVER...ANA COULD DEGENERATE INTO A TROPICAL WAVE LATER
TODAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

ANA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN
ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES OVER
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

...SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...16.3N 62.4W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 26 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[HouTXmetro]

Are we going through eclipse? The satellites are not updating.

[paintplaye]

Are we going through eclipse? The satellites are not updating.

Yea we are... It will be interesting to see how she looks afterwords.

[HouTXmetro]

Are we going through eclipse? The satellites are not updating.

Yea we are... It will be interesting to see how she looks afterwords.

How much longer?

[paintplaye]

Are we going through eclipse? The satellites are not updating.

Yea we are... It will be interesting to see how she looks afterwords.

How much longer?

I think about 30min-1hour

[HouTXmetro]

How much longer?

I think about 30min-1hour

thanks, I can't wait that long... going to bed, lol

[Evil Jeremy]

Model consensus shifted north again, although a good chunk of the models loose Ana quickly now:

http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images ... orm_02.gif

[Evil Jeremy]

The eclipse is over, revealing some nice convection flaring up right now: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-wv.html

[caribepr]

The eclipse is over, revealing some nice convection flaring up right now: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-wv.html

We're just starting to get the first bits here...I can hear thunder in the distance and the dead calm of the last few hours is changing into wind gusts

[Evil Jeremy]

So far it seems like the more northward track is pulling through with Ana: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-wv.html

[paintplaye]

So far it seems like the more northward track is pulling through with Ana: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-wv.html

Well it is still moving west. Just more convection built a little farther to the north. Until we get an actual center, we aren't going to know the progress, but I agree the activity has turned farther north.

[attallaman]

Which model is the best model? For Ana to survive and enter the GOM would the system need to track N or S of the big islands?

[KWT]

Unreal Ana is still battling on, this one could be quite an interesting one to watch in the Gulf, could well pull a surprise or two...

[Blown Away]

So far it seems like the more northward track is pulling through with Ana: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-wv.html

Well it is still moving west. Just more convection built a little farther to the north. Until we get an actual center, we aren't going to know the progress, but I agree the activity has turned farther north.

Ana is not moving W anymore, she has nearly gained 2 degrees of latitude in less than 24 hours. If we find a LLC and the track continues to shift right it's possible Ana skirts or misses Hispaniola to the N giving her a chance to survive. Remnant low assumes a track across Hispaniola and Cuba. Convection is building and maybe the LLC will develope further N or just as likely we find an open wave. Lots of very warm water off SFL/Bahamas! Next 12 hours will tell us!

[KWT]

The thing is we probably don't have a great idea of the state of the LLC. I'd suggest if its that weak that the NHC are having a hard time with it, it could very easily shift about and probably try and form a new one at some point if any deep convection lasts.

[Blown Away]

The thing is we probably don't have a great idea of the state of the LLC. I'd suggest if its that weak that the NHC are having a hard time with it, it could very easily shift about and probably try and form a new one at some point if any deep convection lasts.

Yep I agree, any relocation of the LLC to the north and Ana misses the big mountains. The first visible and 06z models will seal the fate for Ana. Is there still an LLC and will it crash into Hispaniola? We will know the answers very soon. Ana could ramp up very quick if she misses the islands and become a strong TS before racing towards SFL, but open wave is just as likely! Ana is persistent little fighter!

[caribepr]

Ana is here...pounding rain, lightning on our heads, thunder shaking the walls. Only have lost power once in second way too close strike.

check my lat/long...that's where she is

[Blown Away]

Ana is here...pounding rain, lightning on our heads, thunder shaking the walls. Only have lost power once in second way too close strike.

check my lat/long...that's where she is

Yep, northern part of this TD going rate over the top of you! Get a cup of coffee and sit on the porch and watch!