. Cycloneye continue to watch this lady she has never give up...Thunder is rumbling here, lightnings are less frequent right now, hope no more for the night.Stay safe Luis especially under the possible tstorms...
Gustywind
Caribbean - Central America Weather
Moderator: S2k Moderators
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
-
Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
Hava a good night all my carib friens, glad to see that other members especially form the US are come in . Cycloneye continue to watch this lady she has never give up...Thunder is rumbling here, lightnings are less frequent right now, hope no more for the night.
Stay safe Luis especially under the possible tstorms...
Gustywind
. Cycloneye continue to watch this lady she has never give up...Thunder is rumbling here, lightnings are less frequent right now, hope no more for the night.Stay safe Luis especially under the possible tstorms...
Gustywind
0 likes
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145308
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: E.Carib Thread=Web Cams / Obs / Forecasts / Daily Weather
Good morning to all.Rain started here around 4 AM with claps of thunder.Looking at radar much more is comming.
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-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145308
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: E.Carib Thread=Web Cams / Obs / Forecasts / Daily Weather
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
650 AM AST MON AUG 17 2009
PRC021-029-031-033-053-061-087-089-119-127-135-137-139-171345-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0215.090817T1050Z-090817T1345Z/
/00000.N..000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BAYAMON PR-TOA ALTA PR-TRUJILLO ALTO PR-LUQUILLO PR-GUAYNABO PR-
CANOVANAS PR-FAJARDO PR-CAROLINA PR-CATANO PR-SAN JUAN PR-LOIZA PR-
RIO GRANDE PR-TOA BAJA PR-
650 AM AST MON AUG 17 2009
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN
* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...
IN PUERTO RICO
BAYAMON...TOA ALTA...TRUJILLO ALTO...LUQUILLO...GUAYNABO...
CANOVANAS...FAJARDO...CAROLINA...CATANO...SAN JUAN...LOIZA...RIO
GRANDE AND TOA BAJA
* UNTIL 945 AM AST
* AT 643 AM AST DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED VERY HEAVY RAIN IN THE
ADVISORY AREA. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO FROM FAJARDO WESTWARD THROUGH THE
SAN JUAN METRO AREA. OVER HALF INCH OF RAINFALL HAS ALREADY
ACCUMULATED ACROSS THIS AREA...AND AN ADDITIONAL ONE TO TWO INCHES
OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED SPOTS THROUGH 945 AM AST. THIS
RAINFALL WILL LEAD TO THE FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS...LOW
LYING AREAS...AND ROADWAYS.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
650 AM AST MON AUG 17 2009
PRC021-029-031-033-053-061-087-089-119-127-135-137-139-171345-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0215.090817T1050Z-090817T1345Z/
/00000.N..000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BAYAMON PR-TOA ALTA PR-TRUJILLO ALTO PR-LUQUILLO PR-GUAYNABO PR-
CANOVANAS PR-FAJARDO PR-CAROLINA PR-CATANO PR-SAN JUAN PR-LOIZA PR-
RIO GRANDE PR-TOA BAJA PR-
650 AM AST MON AUG 17 2009
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN
* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...
IN PUERTO RICO
BAYAMON...TOA ALTA...TRUJILLO ALTO...LUQUILLO...GUAYNABO...
CANOVANAS...FAJARDO...CAROLINA...CATANO...SAN JUAN...LOIZA...RIO
GRANDE AND TOA BAJA
* UNTIL 945 AM AST
* AT 643 AM AST DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED VERY HEAVY RAIN IN THE
ADVISORY AREA. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO FROM FAJARDO WESTWARD THROUGH THE
SAN JUAN METRO AREA. OVER HALF INCH OF RAINFALL HAS ALREADY
ACCUMULATED ACROSS THIS AREA...AND AN ADDITIONAL ONE TO TWO INCHES
OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED SPOTS THROUGH 945 AM AST. THIS
RAINFALL WILL LEAD TO THE FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS...LOW
LYING AREAS...AND ROADWAYS.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.
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. Cycloneye seems that juicy convection is racing near you and continues to reach PR and the adjacent waters. Be pruden under the tstorms, keep us informed as possible -
Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
Re:
caribepr wrote:It's pretty wild here now...rain was on and off until a few minutes ago and now it's pounding down...lots of thunder and lightning. Right now, hardly any wind.
Stay safe my friend
and keep us informed as possible.
0 likes
We had a wild run for a bit with a lot of rain and flash and boom. The rain has subsided a lot, fairly light now, with the lightning strikes farther away. Two strikes felt pretty much on top of the house with their crackling. I don't know if they hit anything or not but my yard is full of sailboats, so...I'll take a walk later on to see.
0 likes
-
Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
000
WTNT32 KNHC 170848
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022009
500 AM AST MON AUG 17 2009
...ANA MOVING QUICKLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA...
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS
DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...AND
MONTSERRAT.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO...THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...
ANGUILLA...ST. MAARTEN...ST. MARTIN...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...
GUADELOUPE...ST. BARTHELEMY...AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO
ENGANO WESTWARD TO CABO BEATA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...
GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION ANA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE
63.9 WEST OR ABOUT 95 MILES...155 KM...SOUTHEAST OF ST. CROIX.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 28 MPH...45
KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THIS TRACK...ANA IS
FORECAST TO CROSS THE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC LATER TODAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. HOWEVER...ANA COULD DEGENERATE INTO A TROPICAL WAVE LATER
TODAY.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.
ANA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER
THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE U.S. AND BRITISH
VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
...SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...16.6N 63.9W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 28 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BERG
WTNT32 KNHC 170848
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022009
500 AM AST MON AUG 17 2009
...ANA MOVING QUICKLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA...
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS
DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...AND
MONTSERRAT.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO...THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...
ANGUILLA...ST. MAARTEN...ST. MARTIN...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...
GUADELOUPE...ST. BARTHELEMY...AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO
ENGANO WESTWARD TO CABO BEATA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...
GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION ANA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE
63.9 WEST OR ABOUT 95 MILES...155 KM...SOUTHEAST OF ST. CROIX.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 28 MPH...45
KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THIS TRACK...ANA IS
FORECAST TO CROSS THE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC LATER TODAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. HOWEVER...ANA COULD DEGENERATE INTO A TROPICAL WAVE LATER
TODAY.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.
ANA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER
THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE U.S. AND BRITISH
VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
...SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...16.6N 63.9W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 28 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BERG
0 likes
-
Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
000
WTNT42 KNHC 170849
TCDAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022009
500 AM AST MON AUG 17 2009
IT IS UNCLEAR IF ANA STILL HAS A CLOSED LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD. A
MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS NOTED IN RADAR IMAGERY FROM GUADELOUPE AND
SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO...BUT NO SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS HAVE SHOWN A WESTERLY WIND COMPONENT. IN
ADDITION...AN ASCAT PASS AROUND 0140 UTC STRONGLY SUGGESTED THAT
THE SYSTEM IS A SHARP TROPICAL WAVE. BECAUSE OF THE RECENT
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...ADVISORIES ARE BEING CONTINUED FOR THE
DEPRESSION AT THIS TIME UNTIL VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CAN CONFIRM
OR DENY THE EXISTENCE OF A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CENTER LATER THIS
MORNING.
ANA IS MOVING AT AN UNCERTAIN BUT FAST 285/24. THE MODEL GUIDANCE
IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO AND INDICATES THAT
ANA WILL MOVE OVER HISPANIOLA LATER TODAY. THEREAFTER...MOST OF
THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE WEAKEN THE VORTEX AND BRING THE REMNANTS
TOWARD THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO OR FLORIDA BY DAYS 3 THROUGH
5...SIMILAR TO THE SHALLOW LAYER BAM TRACK. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH 36 HOURS AND THEN SHOWS A
SLIGHT NORTHEASTWARD SHIFT THEREAFTER TOWARDS BAM SHALLOW SINCE THE
REST OF THE GUIDANCE LOSES THE VORTEX. THIS FORECAST IS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN AS IT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT THE CIRCULATION MAY NOT
MAKE IT ACROSS HISPANIOLA INTACT.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 17/0900Z 16.6N 63.9W 30 KT
12HR VT 17/1800Z 17.6N 67.2W 30 KT
24HR VT 18/0600Z 19.3N 71.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 18/1800Z 21.2N 75.2W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 19/0600Z 22.8N 78.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 20/0600Z 25.5N 82.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 21/0600Z 28.0N 84.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 22/0600Z 30.0N 84.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
$$
FORECASTER BERG
WTNT42 KNHC 170849
TCDAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022009
500 AM AST MON AUG 17 2009
IT IS UNCLEAR IF ANA STILL HAS A CLOSED LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD. A
MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS NOTED IN RADAR IMAGERY FROM GUADELOUPE AND
SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO...BUT NO SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS HAVE SHOWN A WESTERLY WIND COMPONENT. IN
ADDITION...AN ASCAT PASS AROUND 0140 UTC STRONGLY SUGGESTED THAT
THE SYSTEM IS A SHARP TROPICAL WAVE. BECAUSE OF THE RECENT
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...ADVISORIES ARE BEING CONTINUED FOR THE
DEPRESSION AT THIS TIME UNTIL VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CAN CONFIRM
OR DENY THE EXISTENCE OF A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CENTER LATER THIS
MORNING.
ANA IS MOVING AT AN UNCERTAIN BUT FAST 285/24. THE MODEL GUIDANCE
IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO AND INDICATES THAT
ANA WILL MOVE OVER HISPANIOLA LATER TODAY. THEREAFTER...MOST OF
THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE WEAKEN THE VORTEX AND BRING THE REMNANTS
TOWARD THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO OR FLORIDA BY DAYS 3 THROUGH
5...SIMILAR TO THE SHALLOW LAYER BAM TRACK. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH 36 HOURS AND THEN SHOWS A
SLIGHT NORTHEASTWARD SHIFT THEREAFTER TOWARDS BAM SHALLOW SINCE THE
REST OF THE GUIDANCE LOSES THE VORTEX. THIS FORECAST IS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN AS IT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT THE CIRCULATION MAY NOT
MAKE IT ACROSS HISPANIOLA INTACT.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 17/0900Z 16.6N 63.9W 30 KT
12HR VT 17/1800Z 17.6N 67.2W 30 KT
24HR VT 18/0600Z 19.3N 71.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 18/1800Z 21.2N 75.2W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 19/0600Z 22.8N 78.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 20/0600Z 25.5N 82.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 21/0600Z 28.0N 84.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 22/0600Z 30.0N 84.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
$$
FORECASTER BERG
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-
Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
000
WTNT22 KNHC 170848
TCMAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022009
0900 UTC MON AUG 17 2009
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS
DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...AND
MONTSERRAT.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO...THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...
ANGUILLA...ST. MAARTEN...ST. MARTIN...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...
GUADELOUPE...ST. BARTHELEMY...AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO
ENGANO WESTWARD TO CABO BEATA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...
GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 63.9W AT 17/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 24 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 63.9W AT 17/0900Z
AT 17/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 62.8W
FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 17.6N 67.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 19.3N 71.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 21.2N 75.2W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 22.8N 78.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 25.5N 82.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 28.0N 84.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 30.0N 84.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.6N 63.9W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/1500Z
$$
FORECASTER BERG
WTNT22 KNHC 170848
TCMAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022009
0900 UTC MON AUG 17 2009
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS
DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...AND
MONTSERRAT.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO...THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...
ANGUILLA...ST. MAARTEN...ST. MARTIN...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...
GUADELOUPE...ST. BARTHELEMY...AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO
ENGANO WESTWARD TO CABO BEATA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...
GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 63.9W AT 17/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 24 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 63.9W AT 17/0900Z
AT 17/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 62.8W
FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 17.6N 67.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 19.3N 71.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 21.2N 75.2W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 22.8N 78.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 25.5N 82.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 28.0N 84.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 30.0N 84.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.6N 63.9W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/1500Z
$$
FORECASTER BERG
0 likes
-
Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
Re:
caribepr wrote:We had a wild run for a bit with a lot of rain and flash and boom. The rain has subsided a lot, fairly light now, with the lightning strikes farther away. Two strikes felt pretty much on top of the house with their crackling. I don't know if they hit anything or not but my yard is full of sailboats, so...I'll take a walk later on to see.
continue to be prudent. Stay safe caribpr
0 likes
-
Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
000
FXCA62 TJSJ 170911
AFDSJU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
511 AM AST MON AUG 17 2009
.SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL STORM ANA IS MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN-MOST
PERIPHERY OF THE SAN JUAN FORECAST AREA TODAY AND WILL LEAVE
DURING THE EVENING. BILL IS STILL PROJECTED TO PASS TO THE
NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY A SUFFICIENT DISTANCE SO AS TO HAVE ONLY A
LIMITED EFFECT ON PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...THE FIRST RAIN BANDS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA HAVE
PASSED THROUGH SAINT CROIX LEAVING 0.06 INCHES OF RAIN AND GUSTS
TO 31 MPH. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC WATERS JUST NORTH OF SAN JUAN AND ALL SHOWERS ARE
MOVING AROUND 26 MPH. GIVEN THE PACE OF THE SHOWERS AND THE
COVERAGE IT HAS NOT SEEMED NECESSARY TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR ANY OF THE FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH SOME AREAS WILL RECEIVE
BLASTS OF VERY HEAVY RAIN WITH GUSTY WINDS AND THERE COULD BE SOME LOCAL
FLOODING DUE TO POOR DRAINAGE. OTHERWISE SHOWERS ARE MOVING
THROUGH SUFFICIENTLY QUICKLY SUCH THAT VERY HEAVY AMOUNTS ARE NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. WINDS AT ANTIGUA REACHED 25 KNOTS SUSTAINED
AND THESE ARE THE HIGHEST OF ANY OBSERVATIONS AVAILABLE. CURRENT
FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY APPEAR REASONABLE.
&&
.AVIATION...
A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 63.5W BUT MAINLY SOUTH OF 19 NORTH WILL PASS
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE LOCAL AREA BETWEEN 17/10Z AND
18/00Z SPREADING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHWEST PUERTO RICO AND INTERIOR MOUNTAIN
SECTIONS AS CLOUDS DEVELOP AND OBSCURE THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN TOPS.
WINDS AT LOWER LEVELS COULD REACH 40 KNOTS DURING THE PASSAGE OF
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA TO THE SOUTH. GUSTY SURFACE WINDS ARE A GIVEN.
&&
.MARINE...TROPICAL STORM ANA WILL BRING A RAPID INCREASE IN SEAS
AND WINDS. STRONGEST GUSTS HAVE ALREADY PASSED SAINT CROIX ON
THEIR WAY WEST AND ARE MOVING AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE TONIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 79 90 79 / 70 20 20 50
STT 88 81 91 80 / 80 20 20 40
&&
.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR CENTRAL INTERIOR-CULEBRA-EASTERN
INTERIOR-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-NORTH CENTRAL-NORTHEAST-
NORTHWEST-PONCE AND VICINITY-SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-
SOUTHEAST-SOUTHWEST-VIEQUES-WESTERN INTERIOR.
SCA...ALL ZONES.
VI...TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR ST CROIX-ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT
ISLANDS.
SCA...ALL ZONES.
&&
$$
71/12
FXCA62 TJSJ 170911
AFDSJU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
511 AM AST MON AUG 17 2009
.SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL STORM ANA IS MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN-MOST
PERIPHERY OF THE SAN JUAN FORECAST AREA TODAY AND WILL LEAVE
DURING THE EVENING. BILL IS STILL PROJECTED TO PASS TO THE
NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY A SUFFICIENT DISTANCE SO AS TO HAVE ONLY A
LIMITED EFFECT ON PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...THE FIRST RAIN BANDS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA HAVE
PASSED THROUGH SAINT CROIX LEAVING 0.06 INCHES OF RAIN AND GUSTS
TO 31 MPH. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC WATERS JUST NORTH OF SAN JUAN AND ALL SHOWERS ARE
MOVING AROUND 26 MPH. GIVEN THE PACE OF THE SHOWERS AND THE
COVERAGE IT HAS NOT SEEMED NECESSARY TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR ANY OF THE FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH SOME AREAS WILL RECEIVE
BLASTS OF VERY HEAVY RAIN WITH GUSTY WINDS AND THERE COULD BE SOME LOCAL
FLOODING DUE TO POOR DRAINAGE. OTHERWISE SHOWERS ARE MOVING
THROUGH SUFFICIENTLY QUICKLY SUCH THAT VERY HEAVY AMOUNTS ARE NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. WINDS AT ANTIGUA REACHED 25 KNOTS SUSTAINED
AND THESE ARE THE HIGHEST OF ANY OBSERVATIONS AVAILABLE. CURRENT
FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY APPEAR REASONABLE.
&&
.AVIATION...
A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 63.5W BUT MAINLY SOUTH OF 19 NORTH WILL PASS
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE LOCAL AREA BETWEEN 17/10Z AND
18/00Z SPREADING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHWEST PUERTO RICO AND INTERIOR MOUNTAIN
SECTIONS AS CLOUDS DEVELOP AND OBSCURE THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN TOPS.
WINDS AT LOWER LEVELS COULD REACH 40 KNOTS DURING THE PASSAGE OF
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA TO THE SOUTH. GUSTY SURFACE WINDS ARE A GIVEN.
&&
.MARINE...TROPICAL STORM ANA WILL BRING A RAPID INCREASE IN SEAS
AND WINDS. STRONGEST GUSTS HAVE ALREADY PASSED SAINT CROIX ON
THEIR WAY WEST AND ARE MOVING AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE TONIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 79 90 79 / 70 20 20 50
STT 88 81 91 80 / 80 20 20 40
&&
.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR CENTRAL INTERIOR-CULEBRA-EASTERN
INTERIOR-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-NORTH CENTRAL-NORTHEAST-
NORTHWEST-PONCE AND VICINITY-SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-
SOUTHEAST-SOUTHWEST-VIEQUES-WESTERN INTERIOR.
SCA...ALL ZONES.
VI...TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR ST CROIX-ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT
ISLANDS.
SCA...ALL ZONES.
&&
$$
71/12
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Gustywind
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- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
000
ABNT20 KNHC 171143
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON AUG 17 2009
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION ANA...LOCATED ABOUT 70 MILES SOUTH OF ST. CROIX...ON
HURRICANE BILL...LOCATED ABOUT 1160 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES...AND ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION CLAUDETTE...LOCATED INLAND
ABOUT 15 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF BREWTON ALABAMA.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
ABNT20 KNHC 171143
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON AUG 17 2009
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION ANA...LOCATED ABOUT 70 MILES SOUTH OF ST. CROIX...ON
HURRICANE BILL...LOCATED ABOUT 1160 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES...AND ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION CLAUDETTE...LOCATED INLAND
ABOUT 15 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF BREWTON ALABAMA.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
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