ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA (02L)

[Stormcenter]

This looks right now like nothing more then a rapidly moving wave.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[Blown Away]

I dont see a coc at all anymore.. looks like a open wave.. though does look like a lot of the energy will pass north of DR

Yeah, it's pretty clear there is no LLC, IMO there is a solid MLC and I think it's close/over PR. We all are in a wait and see mode and I think we will know Ana's fate in the next 12 hours! IMO, she survives and brings moderate TS winds to SFL.

[Frank2]

I seriously doubt that - some mentioned Andrew's MLC, but that was over the open ocean and was found to have 70 knot winds (even though it was void of convection), so a far different situation today...

As stormcenter said, it's nothing more than a very rapidly-moving wave at this time - it'll be in the SE Bahamas within 12 hours, at this rate, though as the TCD mentioned, if it slows it might (might) have a chance of restrengthening - but it's doubtful...

Frank

[JPmia]

i for one don't mind the rain it will bring us here in SFL. Fort Lauderdale forecast on weatherunderground for Wed/Thur is "Tropical Depression Ana." Whatever is left of her I think will go north of the islands though.

[ConvergenceZone]

I seriously doubt that - some mentioned Andrew's MLC, but that was over the open ocean and was found to have 70 knot winds (even though it was void of convection), so a far different situation today...

As stormcenter said, it's nothing more than a very rapidly-moving wave at this time - it'll be in the SE Bahamas within 12 hours, at this rate, though as the TCD mentioned, if it slows it might (might) have a chance of restrengthening - but it's doubtful...

Frank

Yep, I agree, Ana is all but toast....

[jlauderdal]

I seriously doubt that - some mentioned Andrew's MLC, but that was over the open ocean and was found to have 70 knot winds (even though it was void of convection), so a far different situation today...

As stormcenter said, it's nothing more than a very rapidly-moving wave at this time - it'll be in the SE Bahamas within 12 hours, at this rate, though as the TCD mentioned, if it slows it might (might) have a chance of restrengthening - but it's doubtful...

Frank

Yep, I agree, Ana is all but toast....

yep, time to shutdown the thread

[ConvergenceZone]

I seriously doubt that - some mentioned Andrew's MLC, but that was over the open ocean and was found to have 70 knot winds (even though it was void of convection), so a far different situation today...

As stormcenter said, it's nothing more than a very rapidly-moving wave at this time - it'll be in the SE Bahamas within 12 hours, at this rate, though as the TCD mentioned, if it slows it might (might) have a chance of restrengthening - but it's doubtful...

Frank

Yep, I agree, Ana is all but toast....

yep, time to shutdown the thread

[Bocadude85]

Ana banana rama seems down to two small (peanut) clusters of thunderstorms:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

we had far more weather in South Florida with the future Claudette than with the present former Ana...

My guess is that it's toast...

Frank

P.S. The way I'm writing, it must be lunchtime...

If you look very closely at the blob moving over puerto rico you can see what looks like hints of inflow.

[Blown Away]

Back out from the floater and you can see inflow, I agree there is no sign of an LLC and the chances are probably greater that Ana dies, but she could easily regenerate N of the islands. Ana is very disoraganized but she is building/maintaining convection.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-vis.html

[weatherSnoop]

Odd, all the time she spent with strong "bare" circulation...now, lots o' convection and no spin

[tolakram]

This gives a pretty good idea of where Ana, or what's left of it, is.



South of Puerto Rico and about to slam into Hispaniola.

[jlauderdal]

Back out from the floater and you can see inflow, I agree there is no sign of an LLC and the chances are probably greater that Ana dies, but she could easily regenerate N of the islands. Ana is very disoraganized but she is building/maintaining convection.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-vis.html

i bet if cycloneye closes the thread we can get this thing to get north and regenerate

[Evil Jeremy]

Yea, this is about to slam into DR. Its disorganized, and the mountains will finish this thing off.

[Bocadude85]

Yea, this is about to slam into DR. Its disorganized, and the mountains will finish this thing off.

Sometimes land interaction can help a disorganized depression consolidate.

[BensonTCwatcher]

Ana (being a zombie tropical system) NEEDS WxMan to pronounce it dead for it to survive.

Seriously, it looks terrible as a cyclone but not too bad if it was just a developing low. As a developing low, I'd give it 25% chance or less of surviving 12 hours,thereafter I think it starts to increase

[jlauderdal]

Ana (being a zombie tropical system) NEEDS WxMan to pronounce it dead for it to survive.

Seriously, it looks terrible as a cyclone but not too bad if it was just a developing low. As a developing low, I'd give it 25% chance or less of surviving 12 hours,thereafter I think it starts to increase

it died before and came back so ana has several lives

[cycloneye]

000
WTNT32 KNHC 171731
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 22A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022009
200 PM AST MON AUG 17 2009

...POORLY ORGANIZED ANA MOVING SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO...THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC FROM PUNTA PALENQUE TO THE NORTHERN HAITI/DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA
WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.3 WEST OR
ABOUT 105 MILES...165 KM...SOUTHWEST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO AND
ABOUT 165 MILES...265 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

ANA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 28 MPH...45 KM/HR. A
CONTINUED TRACK IN THIS GENERAL DIRECTION...WITH A REDUCTION IN
FORWARD SPEED...IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. HOWEVER...ANA COULD DEGENERATE INTO A TROPICAL WAVE LATER
TODAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE IN
THE AREA SHORTLY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

ANA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER
PUERTO RICO...THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES OVER
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

...SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...17.6N 67.3W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 28 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/CANGIALOSI

[otowntiger]

This gives a pretty good idea of where Ana, or what's left of it, is.



South of Puerto Rico and about to slam into Hispaniola.

That is one cool graphic! Yes you can see Ana's spin very clearly. She really did lose her spin east of the islands. Spin is more noticeable now than it was then. Also it clearly shows more northward component to Bill's movement at the end.

[Blown Away]

06 NAM for what it's worth:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[tolakram]

That is one cool graphic! Yes you can see Ana's spin very clearly. She really did lose her spin east of the islands. Spin is more noticeable now than it was then. Also it clearly shows more northward component to Bill's movement at the end.

You can see that graphic here:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... /main.html