ATL: TROPICAL STORM BILL (03L)

[artist]

What are the SST's along the upper east coast? Warm enough to fuel Bill if the system does head that way?

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/?index_region=at

[KWT]

Very true Derek, still they did get a pretty hefty blow from Fabian's RFQ and whilst it was bad for a system of Fabian's strength the lack of deaths was pretty decent for an island.

Still this one looks even stronger then Fabian and IF the GFDL are right then this one will be a very powerful hurricane indeed...and given its formation and structure I could well believe this being a top end 4. I myself went with 125kts as a top strength so will be interesting to see how close that is in the end!

This is going to look amazing tomorrow as well fwiw, probably seeing the strongest hurricane of the year here I reckon.

[Brent]

[attallaman]

What are the SST's along the upper east coast? Warm enough to fuel Bill if the system does head that way?

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/?index_region=at

My geography isn't too good except to say the SST's in the GOM appear to be much warmer than those along the upper EC. Thanks for the link.

[KWT]

Another huge hit for Bermuda, they are going to get it very badly I fear...

[Derek Ortt]

slightly right at 96 hours

[deltadog03]

[KWT]

Direct hit for Bermuda it seems, getting more and more possible.

[KWT]

Last major hurricane to hit Bermuda at this sort of strength was Fabian, will be interesting to compare if it does make a direct strike.

[ConvergenceZone]

I think people just say that for simplicity sake....to make it less complicated (just my opinion)
but I do understand where you are coming from.

There's a certain danger in simplifying to the point of being wrong, which is what happens when using something like "fish" to describe their particular area as being out of danger. Somebody reading the thread should not have to glance at someone's location to see what they mean by fish.

And since parts of Quebec can be affected, it may have to make sense in French, too!

I agree with you. What we should do is starting saying is something like, "Looks like this storm will be avoiding the USA Mainland !!! Sweet!"... because then they will know what we mean....That's what I'm going to say from now on...

[Derek Ortt]

based upon the steering map, I wouldn't be surprised if we saw a temp west jog once it moves passed the weakness

[Brent]

[deltadog03]

based upon the steering map, I wouldn't be surprised if we saw a temp west jog once it moves passed the weakness

Me either Derek. That weakness is really starting to fill in. In fact I wouldn't be suprised to see a good westerly movement for awhile. That STR (one on left) has strengthened today.

[KWT]

I still don't think we can totally rule out a far NE US strike to be honest, its unlikely but if the models have under-estimated the ridge for the next day or two then it could make something of a difference, though of course all it'll likely mean is a sharper curve.

[cpdaman]

What are the SST's along the upper east coast? Warm enough to fuel Bill if the system does head that way?

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/?index_region=at

My geography isn't too good except to say the SST's in the GOM appear to be much warmer than those along the upper EC. Thanks for the link.

http://www.sstcharts.com/nc_09_08_11_06_00_AM_H.shtml

http://www.sstcharts.com/ne_09_08_11_06_00_AM_H.shtml

[wxman57]

it is just me or it is becoming annular?

No, it's not even close to becoming annular. Annular hurricanes look like a doughnut, with a typically large eye surrounded by a ring of squalls (no banding). See here for some info:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Annular_hu ... cteristics

Oh, and welcome to the forum!

[floridasun78]

ok so weakness that was going done by trough that was forecast look less and before? now more left track by model how close to bahamas could this be? is VI safe or need to watch bill?

[wxman57]

I still don't think we can totally rule out a far NE US strike to be honest, its unlikely but if the models have under-estimated the ridge for the next day or two then it could make something of a difference, though of course all it'll likely mean is a sharper curve.

I agree. I'm certainly not ruling it out. A slower front or faster Bill could spell trouble for the east coast.

[taurus10]

whats the likely hood that the cold front/trough coming into the east coast by weeks end starts to slow dow or maybe even stall out local mets are saying that could be a possibility and bill would ride along the front can i get your take on this potential scenario......thanks

[OuterBanker]

Derek, was feeling good this am because recurve so far east that there were no concerns here. In fact the local weather casters said so. Still looks like we're sefe. But surf could be higher than expected.
Are we out of the woods?