ATL: TROPICAL STORM BILL (03L)

[Thunder44]

Edited


000
URNT15 KNHC 181628
AF303 0103A BILL HDOB 11 20090818
161900 1738N 05732W 3759 08070 0446 -179 -438 075007 008 999 999 03
161930 1738N 05730W 3759 08072 0447 -176 -440 076008 008 999 999 03
162000 1738N 05727W 3759 08070 0447 -175 -443 079008 008 999 999 03
162030 1738N 05724W 3759 08063 0446 -175 -446 082010 010 029 000 03
162100 1738N 05722W 3759 08065 0447 -175 -448 083009 010 029 000 03
162130 1738N 05719W 3759 08066 0447 -175 -449 077007 008 030 000 03
162200 1738N 05716W 3758 08067 0447 -175 -450 074007 008 029 000 03
162230 1738N 05714W 3760 08066 0446 -175 -450 071006 007 030 000 03
162300 1738N 05711W 3760 08066 0446 -175 -450 068006 006 030 000 03
162330 1738N 05711W 3760 08066 0445 -175 -450 063006 007 030 000 03
162400 1738N 05706W 3759 08063 0445 -175 -450 060007 007 030 000 03
162430 1738N 05703W 3759 08062 0444 -175 -448 059008 008 029 000 00
162500 1738N 05700W 3759 08062 0445 -175 -446 063010 010 025 000 03
162530 1737N 05658W 3759 08063 0445 -175 -445 066010 011 026 000 03
162600 1737N 05655W 3759 08056 0445 -175 -444 065011 011 026 000 03
162630 1737N 05652W 3755 08072 0445 -175 -442 061010 011 026 000 03
162700 1737N 05650W 3759 08066 0444 -175 -443 061011 011 026 000 03
162730 1737N 05647W 3762 08056 0443 -175 -446 057011 012 027 000 03
162800 1737N 05644W 3760 08066 0444 -177 -450 065013 013 028 000 03
162830 1737N 05642W 3758 08066 0443 -181 -438 072012 013 026 000 00
$$
;

[artist]

the lack of discussion in here is driving me crazy!

[drezee]

this run blasts Newfoundland...

[Thunder44]

000
URNT15 KNHC 181638
AF303 0103A BILL HDOB 12 20090818
162900 1737N 05639W 3759 08064 0443 -187 -320 085011 012 026 000 00
162930 1737N 05636W 3762 08054 0443 -186 -289 080012 013 026 000 03
163000 1737N 05634W 3758 08065 0444 -183 -378 071012 013 026 000 00
163030 1737N 05631W 3758 08059 0443 -182 -369 072014 014 027 000 03
163100 1737N 05629W 3759 08058 0443 -180 -412 068015 015 026 000 00
163130 1737N 05626W 3761 08059 0442 -184 -358 077014 015 026 000 00
163200 1737N 05623W 3758 08066 0443 -185 -306 081011 012 028 000 03
163230 1737N 05621W 3758 08062 0442 -185 -284 085011 011 028 000 03
163300 1737N 05618W 3761 08056 0442 -182 -272 085009 010 028 000 00
163330 1737N 05615W 3757 08066 0441 -181 -273 084009 009 029 000 03
163400 1737N 05613W 3761 08057 0441 -180 -265 086011 012 027 000 03
163430 1737N 05610W 3758 08059 0441 -179 -274 087010 012 028 000 03
163500 1736N 05608W 3758 08064 0442 -175 -293 089008 009 029 000 00
163530 1736N 05605W 3761 08059 0440 -175 -296 090008 009 030 000 00
163600 1736N 05602W 3760 08063 0441 -175 -278 081009 010 028 000 00
163630 1736N 05600W 3759 08061 0440 -179 -248 073011 012 029 000 03
163700 1736N 05557W 3758 08060 0439 -182 -228 071012 014 028 000 03
163730 1736N 05554W 3759 08058 0439 -181 -224 075014 014 029 000 03
163800 1736N 05552W 3757 08065 0440 -181 -226 074015 016 028 000 03
163830 1736N 05549W 3761 08057 0439 -181 -221 075017 017 027 000 03
$$
;

[OuterBanker]

oops, my bad (old fart tryin to be hip). marker is 15 z on the 18th. Right on time and exact spot it was projected to be.

[Thunder44]

000
URNT15 KNHC 181648
AF303 0103A BILL HDOB 13 20090818
163900 1736N 05546W 3759 08061 0439 -180 -225 078018 019 028 000 00
163930 1736N 05544W 3758 08063 0439 -180 -223 077019 020 028 000 00
164000 1736N 05541W 3761 08054 0439 -180 -212 079020 021 026 001 00
164030 1736N 05539W 3759 08056 0439 -179 -215 081021 021 028 000 00
164100 1736N 05536W 3759 08058 0438 -175 -234 081020 021 029 000 03
164130 1736N 05534W 3759 08052 0438 -174 -238 078020 021 029 000 00
164200 1736N 05531W 3758 08061 0437 -170 -243 076019 020 027 000 00
164230 1736N 05528W 3762 08051 0436 -174 -217 076021 021 027 000 03
164300 1735N 05526W 3758 08059 0437 -175 -214 075020 020 027 000 00
164330 1735N 05523W 3758 08058 0436 -179 -205 069018 019 027 000 03
164400 1735N 05521W 3760 08054 0436 -177 -210 068018 019 028 000 00
164430 1735N 05518W 3759 08055 0436 -175 -211 070020 020 028 000 03
164500 1735N 05516W 3759 08060 0436 -175 -212 070020 020 030 000 03
164530 1735N 05513W 3758 08056 0435 -177 -211 066019 019 030 000 00
164600 1735N 05510W 3759 08054 0435 -178 -209 067018 019 032 000 00
164630 1735N 05508W 3761 08051 0435 -175 -211 070019 019 032 000 00
164700 1735N 05505W 3757 08061 0437 -175 -210 073019 019 031 000 03
164730 1735N 05503W 3759 08056 0435 -172 -213 074020 020 031 000 00
164800 1735N 05500W 3759 08050 0434 -170 -212 074019 020 031 000 03
164830 1735N 05457W 3759 08052 0434 -172 -208 069017 018 030 000 00
$$

[StormClouds63]

Looks to be undergoing re-organization phase ... not quite as symmetrical as earlier this morning (little more north/south orientation than east/west). Surrounded by dry air, but system is so large that the environmental impacts are minimized. Does anyone remember another storm this large in size this far out in the Atlantic? Allen (1980)? Ivan (2004)?

[KWT]

I don't know if anyone noticed but he was spot on (for you UK people) on the tropical points. But, he was also 3 hrs early. I wonder if that will make a difference? 18z location 15 z arrival.

Models kill off Bill pretty rapidly funnily enough once it gets into the jetstream, in fact so much so its barely a feature at all by the time it gets towards Ireland, still its better then nothing!

[Thunder44]

000
URNT15 KNHC 181658
AF303 0103A BILL HDOB 14 20090818
164900 1735N 05455W 3758 08055 0433 -178 -196 064014 015 030 000 00
164930 1735N 05452W 3761 08054 0435 -178 -194 067017 018 030 000 00
165000 1734N 05450W 3758 08056 0434 -179 -192 066017 017 031 000 03
165030 1734N 05447W 3759 08051 0433 -175 -196 068017 017 031 000 00
165100 1734N 05444W 3759 08051 0432 -175 -199 068016 016 031 000 00
165130 1734N 05442W 3758 08054 0433 -175 -196 064015 016 032 000 00
165200 1734N 05439W 3761 08053 0432 -175 -193 057016 017 030 000 00
165230 1734N 05437W 3758 08051 0431 -173 -200 051017 018 031 000 00
165300 1734N 05434W 3759 08054 0431 -170 -203 054019 019 031 000 00
165330 1734N 05431W 3759 08049 0429 -170 -201 052020 020 031 000 00
165400 1734N 05429W 3758 08051 0430 -173 -191 048020 021 032 000 00
165430 1734N 05426W 3759 08056 0431 -171 -196 051022 022 031 000 00
165500 1734N 05424W 3760 08050 0431 -171 -197 052023 024 033 000 03
165530 1734N 05421W 3759 08051 0430 -169 -201 055026 028 032 000 00
165600 1734N 05419W 3758 08053 0429 -169 -202 060026 028 031 000 00
165630 1733N 05416W 3758 08052 0427 -170 -195 055027 028 033 000 00
165700 1733N 05413W 3759 08045 0427 -170 -198 052027 027 034 000 00
165730 1733N 05411W 3755 08057 0426 -168 -205 050027 028 034 001 00
165800 1733N 05408W 3761 08042 0425 -166 -207 055027 027 035 002 00
165830 1733N 05406W 3768 08030 0422 -169 -193 059029 031 037 002 00
$$
;

[KWT]

Yep the model is just a touch SW of its previous run, something to watch for Newfoundland it seems!

[Thunder44]

They are descending:



000
URNT15 KNHC 181708
AF303 0103A BILL HDOB 15 20090818
165900 1733N 05403W 3899 07774 0406 -161 -166 052029 030 036 003 00
165930 1733N 05401W 4049 07488 0386 -146 -147 053026 027 036 000 00
170000 1733N 05358W 4186 07232 0368 -130 -134 052026 027 036 000 00
170030 1733N 05355W 4325 06976 0350 -114 -116 053029 030 035 000 00
170100 1733N 05353W 4461 06736 0334 -100 -102 054030 031 035 001 00
170130 1733N 05350W 4597 06513 0321 -084 -088 053032 032 036 000 00
170200 1733N 05348W 4733 06282 0309 -070 -077 057036 039 036 000 00
170230 1732N 05346W 4880 06047 0294 -060 -065 061037 038 036 001 03
170300 1732N 05343W 5040 05794 0277 -048 -051 063040 041 037 000 00
170330 1732N 05341W 5193 05551 0260 -029 -042 064038 039 036 000 00
170400 1732N 05339W 5350 05316 0243 -019 -027 067037 039 035 001 00
170430 1732N 05336W 5518 05064 0034 -009 -014 069035 036 036 001 00
170500 1732N 05334W 5680 04830 0049 -003 -003 064038 039 035 002 00
170530 1732N 05332W 5845 04582 0046 +005 +005 065038 038 036 001 00
170600 1732N 05330W 6015 04384 0062 +020 +012 065036 036 037 000 00
170630 1732N 05327W 6186 04155 0075 +034 +028 064038 040 037 001 00
170700 1732N 05325W 6349 03941 0078 +044 +044 065039 039 037 003 00
170730 1732N 05323W 6513 03728 0076 +055 +055 070040 040 038 003 00
170800 1732N 05321W 6680 03519 0076 +067 +067 065042 043 038 003 00
170830 1731N 05319W 6854 03305 0070 +082 +075 062042 043 040 001 00
$$

[fd122]

I'll keep monitoring Bill until he goes north of us (Leewards). Last thing we need is a powerful storm to change its mind and head west though I doubt it is going to do that but you never know...

[Valkhorn]

If it's going to recurve it better start turning soon.

[Thunder44]

000
URNT15 KNHC 181718
AF303 0103A BILL HDOB 16 20090818
170900 1731N 05317W 6958 03175 0064 +091 +078 053041 041 040 002 00
170930 1731N 05315W 6971 03159 0061 +094 +079 050040 040 039 002 00
171000 1731N 05313W 6973 03154 0059 +095 +080 055037 038 037 004 00
171030 1731N 05311W 6973 03151 0056 +093 +078 054036 038 038 002 00
171100 1731N 05310W 6966 03159 0060 +088 +087 052040 042 039 001 00
171130 1731N 05308W 6963 03162 0060 +089 +081 052039 043 040 002 00
171200 1731N 05307W 6970 03156 0060 +086 +086 055043 044 041 001 00
171230 1731N 05305W 6967 03163 0063 +087 +077 054043 044 041 001 03
171300 1730N 05304W 6970 03152 0057 +090 +077 051042 042 041 000 00
171330 1729N 05303W 6966 03153 0055 +087 +075 052043 043 040 002 00
171400 1727N 05301W 6968 03153 0053 +090 +077 050045 045 041 001 00
171430 1726N 05300W 6966 03154 0058 +084 +084 049047 047 042 002 00
171500 1725N 05259W 6967 03149 0056 +083 +083 052051 056 042 003 00
171530 1724N 05257W 6967 03153 0047 +089 +089 051052 053 043 003 00
171600 1723N 05256W 6967 03146 0042 +090 +084 048050 052 046 001 00
171630 1721N 05255W 6970 03143 0044 +090 +082 050049 050 045 003 00
171700 1720N 05254W 6965 03146 0038 +094 +077 054052 053 045 000 00
171730 1719N 05252W 6970 03139 0039 +091 +081 057054 056 046 000 00
171800 1718N 05251W 6964 03139 0035 +092 +085 057053 055 048 002 00
171830 1717N 05250W 6967 03137 0032 +092 +075 055050 051 048 000 00
$$

[tolakram]

If it's going to recurve it better start turning soon.

You're looking too close.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/flash-vis.html

You can clearly see Bill heading NW, stair stepping along.

[Thunder44]

Heading over the NW Quad now:



000
URNT15 KNHC 181728
AF303 0103A BILL HDOB 17 20090818
171900 1716N 05249W 6969 03133 0035 +090 +076 055049 050 049 001 00
171930 1714N 05247W 6943 03163 0028 +092 +078 057052 055 047 003 00
172000 1713N 05246W 6940 03163 0028 +092 +072 057056 058 047 001 00
172030 1712N 05245W 6938 03166 0031 +087 +077 054057 059 046 002 00
172100 1711N 05244W 6939 03161 0025 +090 +082 059055 056 046 001 00
172130 1710N 05243W 6941 03162 0023 +090 +089 070052 053 047 001 00
172200 1709N 05241W 6939 03159 0021 +090 +083 072051 052 048 002 00
172230 1708N 05240W 6939 03159 0019 +087 +086 071054 056 046 002 00
172300 1707N 05239W 6941 03156 0009 +093 +075 070057 058 047 000 00
172330 1705N 05238W 6942 03149 0007 +093 +090 068061 063 046 003 00
172400 1704N 05237W 6936 03150 0007 +088 +088 063064 065 046 003 00
172430 1703N 05236W 6946 03140 0008 +088 +085 065064 065 046 004 00
172500 1702N 05235W 6939 03144 0010 +085 +085 064063 065 047 001 00
172530 1701N 05233W 6939 03143 9999 +092 +079 064060 061 047 001 00
172600 1700N 05232W 6941 03136 9991 +095 +077 062062 062 048 003 00
172630 1659N 05231W 6941 03135 9991 +091 +085 063059 061 048 004 00
172700 1658N 05230W 6941 03130 9987 +092 +086 060061 064 049 005 00
172730 1657N 05229W 6949 03119 9980 +094 +089 064064 064 049 004 00
172800 1656N 05228W 6939 03122 9977 +093 +088 063065 066 051 004 00
172830 1654N 05226W 6940 03124 9972 +098 +080 061066 067 052 004 00
$$

[OuterBanker]

I hoping for the perfect scenario. Between Hat and Bermuda then out and not hitting anyone. We will get great surf, no rain, no clouds, etc. So far it looks like that will happen. We will get to see a perfect storm with no ill effects.

Of course I would avoid a trans Atlantic cruise this weekend

[Gustywind]

I'll keep monitoring Bill until he goes north of us (Leewards). Last thing we need is a powerful storm to change its mind and head west though I doubt it is going to do that but you never know...

Tkanks, you're right...absolutely of us in the Leewards! Don't forget thay you can go to our thread to post any infos, observations in the Carib islands fd122 viewtopic.php?f=20&t=85676&hilit=

[KWT]

Recon is heading into Bill right now, should get a center pass pretty soon I'd imagine, then we will know how deep Bill really is in terms of pressure.

[Thunder44]

000
URNT15 KNHC 181738
AF303 0103A BILL HDOB 18 20090818
172900 1653N 05225W 6936 03126 9975 +089 +089 057070 071 052 004 00
172930 1652N 05224W 6940 03112 9972 +088 +088 058068 068 052 005 00
173000 1651N 05223W 6941 03113 9958 +098 +073 057068 069 053 002 00
173030 1650N 05222W 6940 03111 9955 +096 +081 056070 071 054 001 00
173100 1649N 05221W 6943 03100 9953 +093 +093 055071 072 055 003 00
173130 1648N 05219W 6940 03095 9946 +095 +091 059071 073 058 001 00
173200 1647N 05218W 6947 03086 9934 +099 +090 061068 072 059 004 00
173230 1646N 05217W 6943 03080 9943 +084 +084 058067 068 060 008 01
173300 1644N 05216W 6935 03085 9990 +077 +999 054071 077 061 014 01
173330 1643N 05215W 6955 03056 9990 +080 +999 058079 081 063 016 01
173400 1642N 05214W 6923 03092 9990 +078 +999 059084 087 064 016 01
173430 1641N 05212W 6949 03041 9990 +082 +999 062075 076 064 014 01
173500 1640N 05211W 6935 03056 9902 +087 +063 060077 078 065 009 00
173530 1639N 05210W 6935 03052 9890 +092 +060 056077 078 064 010 00
173600 1638N 05209W 6946 03030 9880 +093 +060 055078 080 064 009 00
173630 1637N 05208W 6937 03033 9872 +092 +060 054081 085 065 007 00
173700 1636N 05207W 6945 03011 9866 +089 +060 052081 082 066 006 00
173730 1635N 05206W 6939 03008 9850 +094 +060 052082 083 069 006 00
173800 1634N 05204W 6941 02994 9837 +092 +060 051087 089 070 007 00
173830 1632N 05203W 6942 02980 9823 +093 +060 049087 090 072 016 00
$$
;