ATL: TROPICAL STORM BILL (03L)

[expat2carib]

Mmmm... Indeed. The Norther Leewards are getting closer to the outer bands.

[otowntiger]

I'd be a little nervous if I were in those Northern Leewards, including the VI and PR. Of course the storm is very likely to recurve but could very well do it a little further west and not a whole lot of deviation in when that takes place will put the storm on your back door step. It kind of reminds me of Floyd in '99. He was progged to move north but kept procrastinating and relentlessly plowing west and the the NHC has to pull the trigger on a Hurricane watch for the entire east coast of Florida. Of course very soon after they did that he began his turn but got too close for comfort. That's when I was very glad I wasn't the NHC Director. How nerve racking!

[marciacubed]

Mmmm... Indeed. The Norther Leewards are getting closer to the outer bands.

Did you run the animation? That was the run.

[Thunder44]

99kt FL wind max in the NE Quad, so far:



000
URNT15 KNHC 181908
AF303 0103A BILL HDOB 27 20090818
185900 1710N 05110W 6943 03122 9990 +086 +086 136075 078 050 010 00
185930 1709N 05111W 6942 03121 9983 +088 +087 138080 081 052 006 00
190000 1707N 05112W 6943 03117 9978 +090 +082 138082 084 053 005 00
190030 1706N 05114W 6942 03115 9975 +088 +088 138084 085 053 006 00
190100 1705N 05115W 6943 03109 9970 +089 +089 138084 085 055 009 00
190130 1704N 05116W 6942 03107 9970 +085 +085 138083 085 056 008 00
190200 1703N 05117W 6941 03106 9963 +088 +088 136087 088 058 007 00
190230 1702N 05118W 6943 03096 9947 +095 +085 134091 093 058 007 00
190300 1701N 05120W 6946 03087 9946 +086 +086 134086 091 059 010 01
190330 1659N 05121W 6948 03080 9936 +087 +087 135089 093 060 010 01
190400 1658N 05122W 6941 03080 9931 +093 +093 135087 091 061 009 00
190430 1657N 05123W 6942 03079 9935 +088 +088 135085 086 060 009 00
190500 1656N 05125W 6945 03069 9926 +088 +088 134085 086 062 013 01
190530 1655N 05126W 6939 03072 9990 +082 +999 132084 086 063 020 01
190600 1654N 05127W 6953 03048 9990 +073 +999 130086 089 064 021 01
190630 1652N 05128W 6941 03058 9990 +079 +999 136083 084 066 015 01
190700 1651N 05130W 6942 03048 9990 +083 +999 138085 087 067 012 01
190730 1650N 05131W 6957 03025 9990 +087 +999 137091 094 068 010 01
190800 1649N 05132W 6937 03041 9881 +090 +090 141098 099 069 007 00
190830 1648N 05133W 6945 03026 9875 +090 +090 142098 099 071 006 00
$$
;

[mattpetre]

One thing about which I am curious. When Ike was projected to recurve up the FL coast or most westwardly strike FL, were the models in much less agreement than they are currently or is there the possibility in this case of a big surprise like with Ike? It just looks to me like there is still a possibility of a bigger ridge building over Bermuda and forcing this further down the US East Coast. Am I crazy to think this is still within the realm of reason?

[Thunder44]

99kt FL wind max in NE Quad. They haven't reached the eye yet.

114kt Fl wind max!

[ladilan]

Just a quick thought...are the models reacting to the data that is coming in from the recon flights...maybe thats why we are see them go a little more west today?

[artist]

Just a quick thought...are the models reacting to the data that is coming in from the recon flights...maybe thats why we are see them go a little more west today?

i could be wrong but I don't think the models would yet have the data in them. The next run I would think they should have some data at least.

[Thunder44]

114kt Fl winds in the NE Quad! Extrap pressure near 960mb.

000
URNT15 KNHC 181919
AF303 0103A BILL HDOB 28 20090818
190900 1647N 05134W 6939 03023 9862 +089 +089 140098 099 071 007 01
190930 1646N 05135W 6939 03007 9990 +081 +999 139100 101 075 010 01
191000 1645N 05137W 6944 02992 9990 +074 +999 140102 103 075 011 01
191030 1644N 05138W 6942 02980 9990 +069 +999 138105 105 076 015 01
191100 1643N 05139W 6942 02967 9990 +070 +999 139108 109 079 016 01
191130 1642N 05140W 6942 02951 9990 +078 +999 141109 110 082 018 01
191200 1641N 05141W 6932 02949 9779 +081 +081 141112 114 080 022 01
191230 1640N 05142W 6930 02944 9990 +097 +999 144108 109 080 017 01
191300 1639N 05143W 6951 02909 9713 +113 +113 149100 106 078 011 05
191330 1638N 05145W 6944 02903 9702 +121 +121 148086 091 076 007 00
191400 1637N 05146W 6942 02895 9683 +126 +126 143074 078 072 003 00
191430 1636N 05147W 6944 02882 9650 +146 +121 143065 069 069 004 00
191500 1635N 05149W 6946 02869 9636 +153 +106 139054 059 066 003 00
191530 1633N 05150W 6946 02862 9616 +165 +097 137042 043 059 002 00
191600 1632N 05151W 6943 02859 9605 +172 +090 136034 036 046 002 00
191630 1631N 05152W 6943 02856 9601 +172 +081 131030 032 039 000 00
191700 1629N 05153W 6939 02859 9599 +173 +075 133025 027 034 002 00
191730 1628N 05154W 6947 02845 9597 +172 +074 131021 021 030 000 00
191800 1626N 05156W 6937 02860 9600 +169 +078 131018 018 028 000 00
191830 1625N 05157W 6951 02841 9609 +162 +082 140016 017 024 001 03
$$
;

[expat2carib]

Mmmm... Indeed. The Norther Leewards are getting closer to the outer bands.

Did you run the animation? That was the run.

Yes I did. And I get the point. It's actually more serious then "only" the outer bands. It's one run though. Let's see.

[cycloneye]

12z ECMWF hits Nova Scotia.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 12!!!step/

[CrazyC83]

114 kt FL = 103 kt at the surface. I'd go 95 kt as a blend of FL and SFMR right now.

[HurricaneBelle]

12z ECMWF hits Nova Scotia.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 12!!!step/

That looks like it hits Newfoundland, not Nova Scotia.

[knotimpaired]

I'd be a little nervous if I were in those Northern Leewards, including the VI and PR. Of course the storm is very likely to recurve but could very well do it a little further west and not a whole lot of deviation in when that takes place will put the storm on your back door step. It kind of reminds me of Floyd in '99. He was progged to move north but kept procrastinating and relentlessly plowing west and the the NHC has to pull the trigger on a Hurricane watch for the entire east coast of Florida. Of course very soon after they did that he began his turn but got too close for comfort. That's when I was very glad I wasn't the NHC Director. How nerve racking!

Trust me, we are nervous.

[KWT]

Hmmm its going to be close, 114kts probably is close enough for them to upgrade it to major status.

[Frank2]

I wouldn't be too concerned in Puerto Rico at this point, since it's already nearing your latitude - on it's current track it will be well north of you, even without the recurve...

Frank

[cycloneye]

Impressive hurricane.

[Thunder44]

000
URNT15 KNHC 181928
AF303 0103A BILL HDOB 29 20090818
191900 1624N 05158W 6949 02845 9614 +157 +083 155014 015 024 001 03
191930 1623N 05200W 6938 02860 9618 +155 +086 167012 014 026 001 03
192000 1622N 05202W 6941 02859 9619 +154 +088 178006 009 028 000 03
192030 1622N 05203W 6946 02848 9608 +160 +088 169002 006 027 000 00
192100 1622N 05205W 6937 02860 9612 +156 +092 013003 003 028 000 00
192130 1621N 05207W 6945 02851 9616 +155 +098 327006 010 030 000 00
192200 1621N 05209W 6950 02852 9626 +151 +091 322015 017 026 001 03
192230 1620N 05210W 6946 02857 9625 +153 +086 323026 030 032 002 03
192300 1618N 05211W 6951 02855 9625 +159 +091 322034 036 035 001 00
192330 1617N 05212W 6941 02876 9633 +157 +089 322044 047 050 002 00
192400 1616N 05214W 6937 02898 9648 +158 +104 315058 064 069 005 00
192430 1614N 05215W 6936 02912 9656 +160 +117 310063 066 073 005 00
192500 1613N 05216W 6945 02908 9691 +135 +132 304061 063 083 006 00
192530 1612N 05217W 6931 02946 9722 +122 +122 305068 070 081 007 00
192600 1611N 05218W 6946 02938 9738 +123 +123 308068 070 075 008 00
192630 1610N 05220W 6934 02970 9756 +121 +121 317070 073 070 009 00
192700 1608N 05221W 6944 02976 9776 +122 +122 322071 072 068 006 00
192730 1607N 05222W 6941 02992 9794 +122 +116 322067 069 066 002 00
192800 1606N 05223W 6943 03005 9813 +120 +100 323064 065 065 002 00
192830 1605N 05225W 6943 03007 9831 +112 +103 324066 066 064 004 00
$$

000
URNT15 KNHC 181938
AF303 0103A BILL HDOB 30 20090818
192900 1603N 05226W 6942 03022 9847 +102 +102 327067 068 061 004 00
192930 1602N 05227W 6942 03030 9990 +089 +999 330073 075 059 009 01
193000 1601N 05229W 6946 03038 9990 +094 +999 330065 070 059 007 01
193030 1559N 05230W 6942 03049 9887 +099 +099 330055 057 059 006 01
193100 1558N 05231W 6943 03059 9990 +082 +999 325056 060 057 008 01
193130 1557N 05232W 6943 03064 9990 +080 +999 321052 057 057 016 01
193200 1555N 05234W 6945 03067 9990 +089 +999 324051 052 056 016 01
193230 1554N 05235W 6941 03077 9925 +094 +094 323052 053 054 008 01
193300 1553N 05236W 6943 03081 9926 +099 +099 320048 049 051 007 00
193330 1552N 05237W 6940 03089 9933 +095 +095 324049 049 052 004 00
193400 1550N 05239W 6945 03091 9944 +092 +092 321052 052 050 005 01
193430 1549N 05240W 6940 03100 9950 +081 +081 319052 052 050 006 01
193500 1548N 05241W 6940 03103 9990 +075 +999 320047 049 050 013 01
193530 1547N 05242W 6947 03102 9990 +080 +999 314049 052 047 012 01
193600 1545N 05244W 6936 03118 9966 +090 +090 315049 050 047 009 01
193630 1544N 05245W 6945 03110 9966 +093 +093 318046 047 044 004 00
193700 1543N 05246W 6933 03128 9969 +094 +088 320046 046 043 001 00
193730 1541N 05248W 6950 03109 9978 +091 +091 325047 047 043 000 00
193800 1540N 05249W 6948 03118 9978 +094 +093 323045 047 043 000 00
193830 1538N 05250W 6944 03126 9978 +098 +078 314040 042 042 000 00
$$

[cycloneye]

18 UTC Best Track made an update after the last pass.It increased the winds to 95kts.

AL, 03, 2009081818, , BEST, 0, 162N, 517W, 95, 962, HU

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 009.invest

[CrazyC83]

83 kt SFMR in the weaker part of the storm - the SW quad.