ATL: TROPICAL STORM BILL (03L)

[TheEuropean]

Now 957.2 mb extrapolated

[KWT]

Maybe dropping very slowly but I suppose with a fairly decent sized eye may just be a slightly better hit on the true center possibly.

[TheEuropean]

Thx for this info.

000
URNT15 KWBC 182238
NOAA3 WX03A BILL2 HDOB 16 20090818
222830 1648N 05241W 7116 02618 9576 +179 +092 066010 011 007 000 03
222900 1648N 05243W 6988 02773 9574 +172 +085 059008 008 007 000 03
222930 1648N 05246W 6962 02807 9569 +175 +079 031007 008 007 000 03
223000 1648N 05248W 6957 02814 9562 +183 +072 354009 011 999 999 03
223030 1646N 05249W 6967 02804 9566 +182 +092 334020 023 999 999 03
223100 1644N 05249W 6965 02811 9566 +186 +088 317026 026 999 999 03
223130 1642N 05247W 6945 02840 9572 +185 +072 299026 026 999 999 03
223200 1640N 05245W 6944 02843 9578 +183 +074 291027 029 999 999 03
223230 1639N 05244W 7000 02783 9587 +185 +075 277028 029 999 999 03
223300 1639N 05241W 6961 02832 9593 +176 +078 260030 032 999 999 03
223330 1641N 05240W 6964 02820 9588 +176 +081 245025 028 999 999 03
223400 1643N 05239W 6955 02825 9587 +168 +087 227016 019 011 000 03
223430 1645N 05239W 6963 02813 9581 +170 +086 200011 012 010 000 03
223500 1647N 05239W 6948 02826 9576 +170 +085 150008 009 005 000 03
223530 1649N 05238W 6959 02811 9576 +170 +084 130010 011 007 000 03
223600 1651N 05237W 6971 02797 9584 +162 +089 121014 015 005 000 00
223630 1653N 05236W 6980 02785 9581 +164 +097 131019 022 005 000 03
223700 1654N 05235W 6956 02815 9579 +164 +096 132026 027 009 000 03
223730 1656N 05233W 6942 02832 9575 +168 +088 136035 037 999 999 03
223800 1658N 05232W 6939 02840 9576 +170 +089 139046 050 037 000 03

956.2 mb extrapolated

[Derek Ortt]

it ends up making a sharper turn somehow only clipping Newfoundland

[TheEuropean]

000
URNT15 KWBC 182248
NOAA3 WX03A BILL2 HDOB 17 20090818
223830 1700N 05231W 6959 02822 9590 +165 +100 135058 062 999 999 03
223900 1702N 05230W 6984 02806 9622 +145 +128 138080 096 083 000 03
223930 1704N 05229W 6984 02820 9658 +127 +127 139111 117 089 004 00
224000 1706N 05228W 6972 02857 9706 +103 +103 136118 121 089 012 03
224030 1708N 05226W 6970 02885 9735 +103 +103 135121 121 088 014 03
224100 1709N 05225W 6990 02882 9758 +105 +105 135118 121 084 015 00
224130 1711N 05224W 6974 02923 9782 +105 +105 136114 115 082 010 00
224200 1713N 05223W 6956 02964 9800 +106 +106 133112 113 079 008 03
224230 1715N 05222W 6970 02964 9824 +103 +103 131111 114 075 009 03
224300 1716N 05221W 6981 02967 9839 +106 +106 132107 109 074 004 03
224330 1718N 05220W 6957 03009 9854 +104 +104 130101 104 072 005 03
224400 1720N 05219W 6914 03069 9858 +105 +105 129095 097 070 008 03
224430 1722N 05217W 6964 03022 9872 +109 +104 131094 095 067 007 00
224500 1724N 05216W 7000 02987 9889 +106 +106 131092 094 066 005 00
224530 1725N 05215W 6985 03013 9899 +106 +102 131089 090 063 007 03
224600 1727N 05214W 6965 03047 9912 +102 +101 129087 087 062 005 03
224630 1729N 05213W 6969 03049 9916 +105 +099 133086 087 063 010 03
224700 1731N 05212W 6982 03039 9920 +108 +105 135084 084 064 013 03
224730 1733N 05211W 6961 03071 9929 +101 +101 129086 089 063 019 03
224800 1734N 05210W 6940 03095 9949 +086 +086 124088 089 063 011 03

121 kts flight level

Someone else please take over? Its very late here...

[The Eye Wall]

A couple of things to note here...see below image.



The first thing I notice is the encrouchment of drier air or shear. This is disrupting the outflow on the western flank. This may help to govern even more rapid deepening.

The second thing I notice is that the cold cloud tops now completely surround the eye and the eye itself has contracted significantly. Think of an ice skater bringing his arms in. The closer to his chest the faster he spins. Or my analogy of, for us Houstonians, it takes much more time to go around the beltway than it does the loop. See what I mean? So I can see why it's strengthening. However, the CDO is very irregular shaped. it's not a nice circle. In your more potent cat 3's and 4's, you'll see the cold cloud tops become very symetrical.

The other thing to notice, as indicated by the arrows, is the way the cloud tops are being pulled to the north. This is often an indication of future direction. Look for Bill to become very elongated in the coming days as the effects of the weakness become stronger. That's just my observation.

[TheEuropean]

956.2 mb extrapolated and 121 kts at flight level. This should support CAT-3.

[KWT]

Yeah I think the 121kts will be hard for the NHC to ignore this time round, should be ued to 100kts this time round. Pressure also slowly dropping away.

[storms NC]

At 5PM they have bill moving at 290 It looks more like 310 to me. and not slowing down. The ULL to the north should make him move a little more to the west later then back to the NW again.JMO

[Thunder44]

Ok, I will take back over from here for at least a little while:

000
URNT15 KWBC 182258
NOAA3 WX03A BILL2 HDOB 18 20090818
224830 1736N 05209W 6963 03077 9951 +094 +094 126089 090 057 001 03
224900 1738N 05208W 6948 03098 9951 +096 +094 128090 091 059 003 00
224930 1740N 05207W 6835 03242 9949 +096 +089 132084 087 058 007 03
225000 1741N 05206W 6712 03399 9952 +089 +079 132082 083 059 006 00
225030 1743N 05204W 6581 03566 9961 +077 +067 131081 082 060 008 03
225100 1745N 05203W 6432 03754 9961 +066 +065 136083 091 055 013 03
225130 1747N 05202W 6434 03759 9969 +062 +062 134083 086 055 007 03
225200 1749N 05201W 6437 03759 9982 +060 +053 128091 093 055 006 03
225230 1751N 05200W 6448 03751 9984 +065 +048 128088 090 054 007 03
225300 1753N 05159W 6467 03731 9990 +065 +048 129085 085 054 004 03
225330 1754N 05158W 6467 03735 9997 +064 +052 132083 083 053 000 03
225400 1756N 05157W 6468 03736 0004 +061 +052 132082 083 049 000 03
225430 1758N 05155W 6438 03779 0009 +058 +054 132078 078 047 000 03
225500 1800N 05154W 6432 03789 0014 +057 +052 129077 078 999 999 03
225530 1802N 05153W 6423 03804 0020 +056 +051 128074 075 046 000 03
225600 1804N 05152W 6427 03801 0025 +054 +052 129074 074 999 999 03
225630 1806N 05151W 6428 03805 0028 +054 +051 128073 074 999 999 03
225700 1807N 05150W 6427 03807 0032 +053 +052 130072 073 043 000 03
225730 1809N 05149W 6425 03814 0035 +054 +048 131072 072 999 999 03
225800 1811N 05147W 6425 03816 0038 +054 +048 130070 071 999 999 03

[Cyclenall]

I just checked the storm now, so I don't have many details but is it going through an ERC (not the same one as last night) currently? It appears that the eye is collapsing and a larger one is forming. It might just be shrinking. There is nearly a full ring of red around the eye (not solidly uniform) now. Looks more like a 110-115 knot hurricane now.

What quadrant did they fly through just recently?

The first thing I notice is the encrouchment of drier air or shear. This is disrupting the outflow on the western flank. This may help to govern even more rapid deepening.

How does outflow disruption help Bill rapidly deepen even more?

[Thunder44]

000
URNT15 KWBC 182308
NOAA3 WX03A BILL2 HDOB 19 20090818
225830 1813N 05146W 6426 03816 0039 +054 +054 130067 067 999 999 03
225900 1815N 05145W 6424 03821 0040 +054 +054 126064 066 039 000 03
225930 1817N 05144W 6425 03821 0034 +059 +059 127065 066 045 000 03
230000 1819N 05143W 6422 03827 0028 +062 +062 130065 066 045 000 03
230030 1821N 05142W 6423 03827 0035 +059 +059 133066 067 999 999 03
230100 1822N 05141W 6431 03816 0039 +058 +058 132064 065 999 999 03
230130 1824N 05139W 6433 03816 0041 +058 +058 133061 062 999 999 03
230200 1826N 05138W 6429 03822 0041 +059 +059 133061 062 999 999 03
230230 1828N 05137W 6419 03840 0040 +061 +060 131057 058 999 999 03
230300 1830N 05136W 6421 03837 0043 +061 +060 127057 057 999 999 03
230330 1832N 05135W 6409 03856 0041 +064 +051 126056 057 999 999 03
230400 1834N 05134W 6430 03830 0044 +066 +039 123058 060 999 999 03
230430 1836N 05132W 6428 03833 0044 +066 +042 124061 061 999 999 03
230500 1838N 05131W 6426 03837 0044 +067 +039 124059 060 999 999 03
230530 1839N 05130W 6425 03841 0045 +070 +033 125057 058 999 999 03
230600 1841N 05129W 6425 03844 0046 +071 +032 125056 056 999 999 03
230630 1843N 05128W 6425 03845 0051 +068 +036 124056 056 999 999 03
230700 1845N 05127W 6428 03841 0051 +068 +034 125055 055 999 999 03
230730 1847N 05125W 6427 03844 0055 +066 +033 125055 055 999 999 03
230800 1849N 05124W 6427 03844 0059 +064 +035 125057 057 999 999 03

[The Eye Wall]

I just checked the storm now, so I don't have many details but is it going through an ERC (not the same one as last night) currently? It appears that the eye is collapsing and a larger one is forming. There is nearly a full ring of red around the eye (not solid) now. Looks more like a 110-115 knot hurricane now.

What quadrant did they fly through just recently?

The first thing I notice is the encrouchment of drier air or shear. This is disrupting the outflow on the western flank. This may help to govern even more rapid deepening.

How does outflow disruption help Bill rapidly deepen even more?

It won't. That's why I said "govern."

[Thunder44]

000
URNT15 KWBC 182318
NOAA3 WX03A BILL2 HDOB 20 20090818
230830 1850N 05123W 6428 03844 0058 +066 +029 126057 057 999 999 03
230900 1852N 05122W 6429 03843 0061 +065 +033 128057 057 999 999 03
230930 1854N 05121W 6427 03847 0063 +065 +018 129058 058 999 999 03
231000 1857N 05121W 6427 03847 0061 +066 +021 127057 057 999 999 03
231030 1858N 05124W 6427 03847 0062 +066 +017 124057 057 999 999 03
231100 1858N 05126W 6426 03849 0062 +066 +022 124057 057 033 000 03
231130 1858N 05129W 6428 03846 0061 +066 +024 123057 057 999 999 03
231200 1858N 05132W 6428 03845 0062 +066 +019 121058 058 999 999 03
231230 1858N 05134W 6427 03847 0062 +064 +028 122057 058 033 000 03
231300 1858N 05137W 6427 03845 0063 +063 +024 122058 058 999 999 03
231330 1858N 05140W 6427 03845 0063 +063 +032 121058 058 999 999 03
231400 1858N 05143W 6426 03845 0061 +063 +034 120057 058 999 999 03
231430 1858N 05145W 6428 03842 0060 +063 +034 119056 057 999 999 03
231500 1859N 05148W 6429 03840 0053 +067 +031 118055 055 036 000 03
231530 1859N 05151W 6429 03839 0049 +069 +032 117053 054 036 000 03
231600 1859N 05154W 6428 03839 0050 +068 +032 115052 053 036 000 03
231630 1859N 05156W 6427 03841 0054 +065 +032 114052 053 035 000 03
231700 1859N 05159W 6427 03840 0052 +066 +033 114053 053 034 000 03
231730 1859N 05202W 6426 03841 0048 +069 +031 116054 055 035 000 03
231800 1859N 05204W 6427 03840 0042 +073 +021 116056 057 035 000 03

[Thunder44]

This is flight path up to HDOB 20. HDOB 19 is missing on GE:

[Cyclenall]

It won't. That's why I said "govern."

What's your definition of govern then? I view it as overseeing or aiding the process. If you mean control, then govern was probably not the best word to use in that sentence because it sounds more like aiding then limiting when used there.

[Thunder44]

000
URNT15 KWBC 182328
NOAA3 WX03A BILL2 HDOB 21 20090818
231830 1859N 05207W 6427 03839 0042 +073 +017 115057 058 036 000 03
231900 1859N 05210W 6428 03838 0043 +072 +017 114057 058 999 999 03
231930 1900N 05213W 6427 03839 0041 +073 +020 114058 058 037 000 03
232000 1900N 05215W 6430 03835 0042 +071 +033 112059 059 037 000 03
232030 1900N 05218W 6426 03839 0042 +071 +034 110059 060 999 999 03
232100 1900N 05221W 6428 03837 0044 +070 +029 111059 060 999 999 03
232130 1900N 05224W 6428 03837 0040 +073 +020 111060 060 037 000 03
232200 1900N 05227W 6429 03835 0040 +073 +020 109059 060 039 001 03
232230 1900N 05229W 6428 03835 0040 +073 +018 109058 059 038 002 03
232300 1900N 05232W 6428 03835 0046 +068 +028 108059 060 999 999 03
232330 1900N 05235W 6429 03834 0047 +067 +031 105059 060 999 999 03
232400 1900N 05238W 6430 03833 0047 +067 +030 105059 059 038 000 03
232430 1901N 05241W 6430 03833 0047 +067 +037 104060 061 039 000 03
232500 1901N 05243W 6429 03835 0048 +066 +041 102061 062 039 000 03
232530 1901N 05246W 6431 03832 0051 +064 +041 101058 061 039 000 00
232600 1901N 05249W 6429 03835 0051 +063 +045 097056 056 041 000 03
232630 1901N 05252W 6428 03836 0050 +063 +048 094056 057 040 000 03
232700 1901N 05254W 6427 03837 0052 +062 +053 093057 057 040 000 03
232730 1901N 05257W 6429 03835 0055 +061 +047 093056 056 039 000 03
232800 1901N 05300W 6428 03836 0057 +060 +046 092053 056 037 000 03

[The Eye Wall]

It won't. That's why I said "govern."

What's your definition of govern then? I view it as overseeing or aiding the process. If you mean control, then govern was probably not the best word to use in that sentence because it sounds more like aiding then limiting when used there.

Have you never heard of a governer of a car? It keeps or LIMITS the speeds below a certain limit???

[Derek Ortt]

the SFMR really does not justify cat 3, however

the earlier AF flight showed that the reduction factor for the NE quad is .8 not .9 for this storm

[Thunder44]

000
URNT15 KWBC 182338
NOAA3 WX03A BILL2 HDOB 22 20090818
232830 1901N 05303W 6430 03833 0057 +059 +048 092053 054 038 001 03
232900 1901N 05306W 6429 03834 0056 +059 +047 092051 052 037 001 03
232930 1902N 05308W 6430 03832 0056 +059 +047 093051 051 038 000 03
233000 1902N 05311W 6430 03833 0053 +061 +046 094053 054 999 999 03
233030 1902N 05314W 6429 03834 0055 +060 +047 091050 050 999 999 03
233100 1902N 05317W 6430 03833 0056 +060 +044 090050 050 037 000 03
233130 1902N 05319W 6430 03832 0056 +060 +040 090049 050 999 999 03
233200 1902N 05322W 6428 03836 0055 +061 +039 089048 049 037 000 03
233230 1902N 05325W 6429 03835 0055 +062 +037 092049 049 037 000 03
233300 1902N 05327W 6430 03834 0053 +064 +033 091049 050 999 999 03
233330 1903N 05330W 6431 03834 0050 +066 +035 090051 051 999 999 03
233400 1903N 05333W 6430 03835 0052 +065 +040 090052 052 036 000 03
233430 1903N 05335W 6429 03837 0055 +064 +035 086052 052 999 999 03
233500 1903N 05338W 6430 03837 0062 +059 +038 084054 055 999 999 03
233530 1903N 05341W 6429 03838 0060 +061 +036 084055 055 999 999 03
233600 1903N 05344W 6429 03839 0062 +060 +035 084055 055 033 000 03
233630 1903N 05346W 6429 03839 0063 +060 +034 085056 056 034 000 03
233700 1903N 05349W 6429 03840 0063 +060 +034 082055 056 999 999 03
233730 1903N 05352W 6428 03841 0061 +062 +037 081054 055 032 000 03
233800 1903N 05355W 6429 03841 0060 +063 +036 081053 053 999 999 03