Caribbean - Central America Weather

[Gustywind]

000
AWCA82 TJSJ 190904
RWSVI

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
504 AM AST WED AUG 19 2009

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES CONDITIONS PREVAILED ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
MOVED ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND AFFECTED THE LOCAL ISLANDS.
WINDS WERE FROM THE NORTHEAST AT AROUND 10 MPH.

THE MODERATE EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND FLOW MAY HOWEVER BRING SOME
QUICK PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS...BUT THE ACTIVITY
WILL BE BRIEF. THIS AFTERNOON...SOME DIURNALLY INDUCED
ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE ISLANDS BUT NO WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...AS A MOSTLY DRY ENVIRONMENT WILL PREVAIL.

AT 5 AM AST...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.9 WEST OR ABOUT 555 MILES...EAST
OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THE HURRICANE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST
NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH.

EAST NORTHEAST SWELL WILL START TO AFFECT THE LOCAL WATERS LATER
TODAY. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM
NOON TODAY FOR THE OFF SHORE ATLANTIC WATERS. SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT FOR THE WESTERN COASTAL
WATERS OF PUERTO RICO.

$$

[caribepr]

Wow, the sun just came out here full blast! Feels like I've not seen it forever...We're getting spits of rain, and watching Bill creep ever northward. I'm going to celebrate by going to Jost Van Dyke and collapsing in a hammock for a few days!

[Gustywind]

Wow, the sun just came out here full blast! Feels like I've not seen it forever...We're getting spits of rain, and watching Bill creep ever northward. I'm going to celebrate by going to Jost Van Dyke and collapsing in a hammock for a few days!

Stay safe caribepr, glad to see you. Bill continues to say good bye to the Leewards, Northern Leewards, and PR. But we should not let our guard down because of he nas not entirely pass the 20 N, but things are improving for us in terms of direct impact, hope that the waves expected won't be so strong. Waves could reach today especially tonight 3 to 4 meters near Guadeloupe.
I will keep you informed as usual.
Gustywind.

[Gustywind]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 191137
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED AUG 19 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
BILL...LOCATED ABOUT 460 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...SOUTH FLORIDA
AND THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA ARE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[Gustywind]

The manin story: continuing to monitor big baby BILL moving away from the Leewards, Northern Leewards and PR while a twave has been introduced (near Africa).
000
AXNT20 KNHC 191051
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED AUG 19 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
HURRICANE BILL IS CENTERED NEAR 18.0N 54.9W OR ABOUT 400 NM EAST
OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MOVING WNW AT 14 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 948 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 115
KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. SEE THE LATEST FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS TCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. HURRICANE
BILL DISPLAYED A WELL DEFINED EYE WITH SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE CENTER IN ALL QUADRANTS AND
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERING THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 15N-22N BETWEEN 51W-57W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS INTRODUCED ALONG 19W S OF 16N MOVING W 10-15
KT. WAVE LOCATION IS AT THE LEADING EDGE OF AN AREA DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE MAXIMUM OBSERVED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY
AND IS CLEARLY DEFINED MAINLY IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120
NM OF THE WAVE FROM 8N-11N.

TROPICAL WAVE REMAINS TILED DUE TO HURRICANE BILL EXTENDING FROM
16N41W TO 8N36W MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE CONTINUES TO BE AT THE
LEADING EDGE OF AN AREA DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM OBSERVED IN
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
60 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 13N-16N.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 82W S OF 22N MOVING W NEAR 25 KT. THIS
WAVE RESULTED FROM THE REMNANTS OF ANA AND IS NOT DISPLAYING THE
TYPICAL CHARACTERISTICS OF A TROPICAL WAVE...SUCH AS BEING
EMBEDDED WITHIN DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE. IT IS IN AN AREA OF DRY
STABLE AIR AND NOT PRODUCING ANY SHOWERS/CONVECTION.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 13N16W 9N28W 8N46W 11N62W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
INLAND AND WITHIN 90/120 NM ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA BETWEEN
8N-16N AND WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 11N29W TO 13N37W. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 60/75 NM OF 8N
BETWEEN 22W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W GULF WHILE A UPPER LOW IN THE
CARIBBEAN EXTENDS AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E GULF CONTINUING TO
PROVIDE ABUNDANCE OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA. THE SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE W ATLC IS BEGINNING TO BUILD
ACROSS THE GULF FROM THE NE TO SW. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 21N W OF 92W TO
INLAND OVER MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
OVER THE SE GULF WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 27N85W TO THE NE TIP
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. ISOLATED SHOWERS DOT THE REMAINDER OF
THE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FEATURE FOR THE CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING
REMAINS THE UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 20N84W COVERING THE NW
CARIBBEAN AND EXTENDING AN UPPER TROUGH N OVER THE E GULF OF
MEXICO AND SE TO NEAR 12N80W. THIS FEATURE IS GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS W OF 83W FROM CENTRAL
AMERICA TO OVER CUBA AND N OF 20N TO OVER CUBA BETWEEN 80W-83W.
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ARE
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN S OF 15N W OF 77W TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA.
FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA.
DRY STABLE AIR IS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA E OF 80W
LIMITING ANY SHOWERS RESULTING IN FAIR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR NE CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS TO PUERTO RICO BEING PUSHED AHEAD OF HURRICANE
BILL AS IT MOVES TO NW OF THE ISLANDS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE MAIN FOCUS THIS MORNING FOR THE ATLC IS HURRICANE BILL. THE
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OFF THE SE COAST OF FLORIDA JUST W OF THE
BAHAMAS FROM 23N79W TO 28N78W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 23N-27N BETWEEN 76W AND THE SURFACE TROUGH
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 24N-26N
BETWEEN W OF THE SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE S FLORIDA PENINSULA
AND THE FLORIDA KEYS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
AN UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE FAR W ATLC EXTENDING FROM E CUBA TO
JUST W OF BERMUDA BETWEEN A NARROW UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING
THROUGH 32N75W TO 28N78W AND AN UPPER LOW TO THE E OF BERMUDA
NEAR 32N60W. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 28N-30N BETWEEN 69W-71W. OTHERWISE
THE ATLC BASIN IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC
ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH BETWEEN BERMUDA AND NORTH CAROLINA
COAST AND BY A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 30N31W IN THE E WITH A
WEAKNESS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC COMPLIMENTS OF HURRICANE BILL.

$$
WALLACE

[Gustywind]

[b]What'us up near Africa?[/b] Here is some sat/pic...enjoy .

[caribepr]

I'll be very happy to see Bill at 20. That blast of sun is over, little dribs and drabs of rain..I'll take that any day! Glad it's looking like all will be well for all of us here, and hopefully for Bermuda

[msbee]

Good Morning all

I'm waiting for Bil to reach 20 also.
I look at that guy out there and still wonder how he can possibly completely miss us....he is so large.
The center is at our latitude now, but what about his southern half?
Will those rains and winds miss us entirely?
I know we won't get hurricane force winds but I have a feeling we will get some rain and maybe gale force winds.
what does anyone think?

Barbara

[caribepr]

I'm exhausted with guessing. Just leaving everything in place until it's over the horizon. But yes, I certainly see what you see. I've got the full loop on full time along with our local radar and it does seem impossible that we'll get a complete miss.

[msbee]

yea, I hear ya, MJ
BTW, FYI, I just see a Carnival cruise ship LEAVING our harbor!
Apparently we are experiencing ground swells already and they could not dock.

[cycloneye]

Getting closer and closer to that 20N line.

BULLETIN
HURRICANE BILL ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
1100 AM AST WED AUG 19 2009

...POWERFUL HURRICANE BILL EXPECTED TO PASS WELL NORTH OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS...

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF BILL.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.3 WEST OR ABOUT 380 MILES...
610 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND ABOUT 1080 MILES
...1735 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

BILL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR.
THIS GENERAL TRACK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY AND THURSDAY. A
GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHWARD IS EXPECTED THEREAFTER.

DATA FROM A NOAA P-3 PLANE AND SATELLITE ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT THE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. BILL IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

BILL IS A LARGE HURRICANE AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD
UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM...PRIMARILY TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 950 MB...28.05 INCHES.

LARGE SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH BILL WILL BE IMPACTING THE ISLANDS OF
THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. LARGE
SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH BILL SHOULD ALSO BEGIN TO AFFECT BERMUDA AND
PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

...SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...18.7N 56.3W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 18 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.

[Gustywind]

Getting closer and closer to that 20N line.

BULLETIN
HURRICANE BILL ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
1100 AM AST WED AUG 19 2009

...POWERFUL HURRICANE BILL EXPECTED TO PASS WELL NORTH OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS...

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF BILL.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.3 WEST OR ABOUT 380 MILES...
610 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND ABOUT 1080 MILES
...1735 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

BILL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR.
THIS GENERAL TRACK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY AND THURSDAY. A
GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHWARD IS EXPECTED THEREAFTER.

DATA FROM A NOAA P-3 PLANE AND SATELLITE ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT THE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. BILL IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

BILL IS A LARGE HURRICANE AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD
UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM...PRIMARILY TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 950 MB...28.05 INCHES.

LARGE SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH BILL WILL BE IMPACTING THE ISLANDS OF
THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. LARGE
SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH BILL SHOULD ALSO BEGIN TO AFFECT BERMUDA AND
PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

...SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...18.7N 56.3W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 18 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.

Very good news Cycloneye

[Gustywind]

000
WTNT43 KNHC 191445
TCDAT3
HURRICANE BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
1100 AM AST WED AUG 19 2009

A NOAA P-3 PLANE ON A RESEARCH MISSION HAS BEEN PROVIDING EXCELLENT
DATA FROM BILL DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THERE WAS A PEAK
FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 132 KNOTS TWO HOURS AGO AND THE SFMR REPORTED
PEAK WINDS AROUND 105 KNOTS. DATA FROM THE PLANE ALSO SHOW THAT
BILL HAS A LARGE WIND FIELD AND A 30 NMI WIDE EYE. THE LATEST
EXTRAPOLATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 950 MB. ALTHOUGH THE RING
OF DEEP CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE EYE OBSERVED ON SATELLITE HAS
WEAKENED DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...THE T-NUMBERS REMAIN
AROUND 6.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 115 KT
IN THIS ADVISORY. THE LARGE SCALE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR
ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION SINCE BILL IS HEADING FOR A WARMER OCEAN
AND THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW FOR THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS.
HOWEVER...MOST LIKELY THERE WILL BE FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY IN
THIS PERIOD CONTROLLED BY EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES. BEYOND 72
HOURS...THE OCEAN IS COOLER AND A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN...
BUT BILL IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A HURRICANE THROUGH FIVE DAYS.

THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE IN THE STEERING CURRENTS AND BILL CONTINUES
TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 16 KNOTS AROUND
THE AZORES-BERMUDA HIGH. THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR A
COUPLE OF DAYS. THEREAFTER...A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO SWING EASTWARD OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...FORCING
BILL TO TURN NORTHWARD A GOOD DISTANCE AWAY FROM THE U.S. EAST
COAST. THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE SOLUTION PROVIDED BY MOST OF
THE DYNAMICAL MODELS...WHICH IN FACT HAVE BEEN QUITE CONSISTENT IN
TURNING BILL NORTHWARD FOR THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS VERY CLOSE TO
THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

BECAUSE BILL IS A LARGE AND STRONG HURRICANE...SWELLS TRIGGERED BY
THE HURRICANE SHOULD AFFECT THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...BERMUDA
AND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 19/1500Z 18.7N 56.3W 115 KT
12HR VT 20/0000Z 19.9N 58.3W 120 KT
24HR VT 20/1200Z 21.7N 61.0W 125 KT
36HR VT 21/0000Z 23.5N 63.5W 125 KT
48HR VT 21/1200Z 26.0N 65.5W 120 KT
72HR VT 22/1200Z 32.0N 68.5W 115 KT
96HR VT 23/1200Z 38.5N 67.0W 100 KT
120HR VT 24/1200Z 47.0N 58.0W 75 KT

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[expat2carib]

LARGE SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH BILL WILL BE IMPACTING THE ISLANDS OF
THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. LARGE
SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH BILL SHOULD ALSO BEGIN TO AFFECT BERMUDA AND
PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

Let's not forget this!

[Gustywind]

000
AWCA82 TJSJ 191554 CCA
RWSVI

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1152 AM AST WED AUG 19 2009

MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS THIS MORNING. QUICK PASSING SHOWERS MOVED ACROSS THE ISLANDS
AND SURROUNDING WATERS FROM TIME TO TIME TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF MOSTLY
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL. ACTIVITY HOWEVER ACROSS THE ISLANDS WERE
SHORT LIVED...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS NOTED. WINDS WERE
FROM THE NORTHEAST AROUND 15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS ALONG
COASTAL AREAS AND ACCOMPANYING THE PASSING SHOWERS.

DURING THE AFTERNOON...SOME DIURNALLY INDUCED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP
ACROSS THE PARTS OF THE ISLANDS BUT NO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...AS A FAIRLY DRY ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE
TO PREVAIL TODAY.

AT 11 AM AST...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 18.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.3 WEST OR ABOUT 380 MILES...
EAST NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THE HURRICANE IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH.

EAST NORTHEAST SWELL WILL START TO AFFECT THE LOCAL WATERS LATER
TODAY. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM
NOON TODAY FOR THE OFF SHORE ATLANTIC WATERS. SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT FOR THE WESTERN COASTAL
WATERS OF PUERTO RICO.

$$

[Gustywind]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 191620
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1220 PM AST WED AUG 19 2009

.UPDATE...
OTHER THAN THE QUICK PASSING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS BROUGHT IN ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA BY THE PREVAILING NORTHEAST WIND FLOW...THE LOCAL
AREA REMAIN UNDER A FAIRLY STABLE ENVIRONMENT. THIS WILL HELP LIMIT
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY. DIURNAL AND LOCAL
TERRAIN EFFECTS WILL HOWEVER LEAD TO SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION MAINLY
ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.
HOWEVER FOR THE REST OF THE ISLANDS CAN EXPECT MAINLY FAIR
WEATHER CONDITIONS TO PERSIST AHEAD OF HURRICANE BILL...WHICH IS
STILL EXPECTED TO PASS SOME 400 MILES OR SO NORTHEAST OF SAN JUAN
ON THURSDAY. UNTIL THEN...EXPECT SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY TO ACCOMPANY
THE INFREQUENT BANDS OF MOISTURE WHICH WILL PROPAGATE FROM THE
DISTANT BILL AND EVENTUALLY MAKE THEIR WAY TO SOME OF ISLANDS IN
THE PREVAILING NORTHEAST WIND FLOW. NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE
INHERITED FORECAST PACKAGE AT THIS TIME...A FORECAST TRACK OF BILL
HAS NOT SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGED SINCE THE MORNING PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION UPDATE...OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILED AROSE THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. LATEST TJSJ U/A SOUNDING SHOWED
PREVAILING MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW BTWN 16-25
KTS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING PERIODS OF PASSING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
AND MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS QUICKLY ACROSS PARTS PR...CULEBRA...VIEQUES
AND THE U.S.V.I. HOWEVER...NO SIGNIFICANT OPERATIONAL IMPACTS OR
CHANGES TO PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AT THIS TIME.


&&

[Gustywind]

Bye Bye BIG BABY Bill you will have BIG time for fishing away from the Lesser Antilles:wink:

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 191802
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED AUG 19 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
HURRICANE BILL IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. THE EYE OF HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED 18.7N 56.3W...OR
ABOUT 380 MILES/610 KM TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS...AND ABOUT 1080 MILES/1735 KM TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
OF BERMUDA. BILL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST 16 KT.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 950 MB. THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
BILL IS A LARGE HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD
UP TO 80 MILES/130 KM FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES/280 KM PRIMARILY TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. PLEASE READ THE LATEST FORECAST/
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS TCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 17N TO 20N
BETWEEN 56W AND 58W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO GO FROM 22N TO 23N BETWEEN 54W AND 57W.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND OTHER POSSIBLE
PRECIPITATION COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 9N TO 28N BETWEEN
48W AND 61W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 16N21N 8N19W
MOVING WESTWARD 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 9N TO 14N BETWEEN 19W AND 21W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 15N44W 7N41W MOVING
WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KT. DISORGANIZED ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
FROM 13N TO 15N BETWEEN 42W AND 46W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS ALONG 20N84W 10N83W IS
THE REMNANT OF ANA THAT DISSIPATED A FEW DAYS AGO. THIS TROPICAL
WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 20 TO 25 KT. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW ACCOMPANIES A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH.
NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM PANAMA TO 12N
BETWEEN 79W AND CENTRAL AMERICA.

...THE ITCZ...
11N21W 10N30W 10N40W 10N61W NEAR TRINIDAD AND NORTHEASTERN
VENEZUELA. DISORGANIZED ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 6N
TO 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 50W...AND FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN
AFRICA AND 40W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM 31N60W
TO SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF THE LINE FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE WEST OF 80W...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 31N72W TO 28N74W
TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
NEAR 20N85W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THROUGH 31N71W 26N79W 24N85W.
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE COASTAL
PLAINS AND WATERS FROM EASTERN HONDURAS TO SOUTHEASTERN
NICARAGUA.

THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
ON TOP OF INTERIOR MEXICO NEAR 25N103W CLOSE TO TORREON. NO
DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THIS CYCLONIC CENTER
AT THIS TIME. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 85W AND 95W
IN AN AREA OF SURFACE TO LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW/TROUGH.
SIMILAR PRECIPITATION IS ALONG THE MEXICO COAST IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO FROM 19N TO 23N TO THE WEST
OF 95W IN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW AND AFTERNOON HEATING.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE TROUGH
COVERS THE AREA TO THE WEST OF 76W. DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE COVERS
THE REST OF THE AREA BETWEEN THE CYCLONIC FLOW AND THE
APPROACHING FLOW THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE BILL.
DISORGANIZED ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 17N TO 22N
BETWEEN 69W AND 70W...SOME ACROSS THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
THIS PRECIPITATION IS MOVING WITH THE LARGER-SCALE NORTHEASTERLY
SURFACE WIND FLOW THAT IS WELL AWAY FROM HURRICANE BILL.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL IS NEAR 32N60W. CYCLONIC FLOW GOES FROM
28N TO 34N BETWEEN 55W AND 63W. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
ALONG 33N37W 29N42W. A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES FROM 31N43W TO
30N50W TO 27N58W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF THIS TROUGH. AN EASTERN ATLANTIC UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH GOES FROM 29N21W TO 26N24W TO 23N29W TO 22N39W AND
15N43W. NO PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THIS TROUGH.

$$
MT

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
317 PM AST WED AUG 19 2009

.DISCUSSION...A BREEZY NORTH NORTHEASTERLY FLOW BROUGHT PATCHY
MOISTURE AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE
SURROUNDING ISLANDS TODAY. EXPECT THE FLOW TO SLOWLY SHIFT
NORTHERLY AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWESTERLY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AS
CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE BILL CONTINUES TO MOVE
NORTHWESTERLY...PASSING ABOUT 400 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL
ISLANDS. WHILE SOME AREAS OF CONVERGENCE AND SHOWERS CAN BE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS WITH THE PASSAGE OF
HURRICANE BILL...DO NOT EXPECT ANY WIDESPREAD OR PROBLEMATIC
RAINFALL AT THIS TIME. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM REMAINS
THE INCREASINGLY LARGE SEAS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND
THURSDAY...AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE
NORTHERN AND EASTERN EXPOSED COASTLINES.

BEHIND HURRICANE BILL...EXPECT THE FOLLOWING TROPICAL WAVE TO PASS
MAINLY SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH A MORE
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY EXPECTED ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS LATE IN THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.


&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT VFR CONDS AT THE LOCAL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING. DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...INFREQUENT PASSING
CLDS/SHRA GENERATED FROM THE POWERFUL HURRICANE BILL TRANSPORTED IN
THE NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW MAY BRIEFLY BRING PERIODS OF MVFR ENRT
BTWN THE U.S.V.I AND THE NORTH AND EAST SECTIONS OF PR AT LEAST
UNTIL 20/13Z.THEREAFTER MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS DURG THE DAY WITH
PREVAILING NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY SFC WINDS TO PERSIST ACROSS
THE LOCAL FLYING AREA.

&&

.MARINE...CONTINUE TO EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT RAPID AND RELATIVELY
BRIEF SURGE IN SEAS AS HURRICANE BILL PASSES TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE LOCAL AREA. WHILE SOME OF THIS ENERGY WILL BE REFRACTED TOWARDS
THE NORTH COASTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS...THE BRUNT OF THE SWELL
ENERGY WILL LIKELY BE DIRECTED NORTH OF THE LOCAL
COASTLINES...BRINGING 10 TO 12 FOOT SEAS ACROSS THE LOCAL OFFSHORE
ATLANTIC WATERS. EVEN THOUGH IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE BREAKING WAVES
WILL REACH HIGH SURF CRITERIA...EXPECT SIGNIFICANTLY LARGER WAVES
THAN WE HAVE SEEN IN SOME TIME ALONG WITH VERY DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS TOMORROW...ESECIALLY ALONG THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
EXPOSED COASTLINES OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

[cycloneye]

Almost at 20N!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

BULLETIN
HURRICANE BILL ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
500 PM AST WED AUG 19 2009

...BILL REMAINS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...NOW
MOVING NORTHWESTWARD...

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF BILL.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.6 WEST OR ABOUT 335 MILES...
535 KM...NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND ABOUT 970 MILES...1565
KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

BILL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO WITH A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST FORECAST BY LATE FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. BILL IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

BILL IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 947 MB...27.96 INCHES.

LARGE SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH BILL WILL BE IMPACTING THE ISLANDS OF
THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. LARGE
SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH BILL SHOULD ALSO BEGIN TO AFFECT BERMUDA AND
PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

...SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...19.8N 57.6W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 20 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE