ATL: TROPICAL STORM BILL (03L)

[KWT]

Yeah that is a little close to New England plus the upper trough seems to become a cut-off low as well, not sure what impact that will have on projections.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Close..

[cycloneye]

WNW to NW is the track.

[x-y-no]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_096l.gif

Stays offshore of New Englad and hits Canada, but that is really uncomfortably close ...

[KWT]

Comes pretty close to the far NE of England this run, then goes and rakes quite a bit of far eastern Canada!

[Derek Ortt]

that may require hurricane warnings for the USA

[Gigsley]

URNT15 KNHC 191605
AF303 0203A BILL HDOB 14 20090819
155530 1937N 05711W 6970 03069 9990 +085 +999 067066 067 055 009 01
155600 1937N 05710W 6967 03069 9951 +095 +095 064068 072 055 005 00
155630 1936N 05709W 6973 03061 9942 +094 +094 064069 070 055 006 00
155700 1935N 05708W 6968 03053 9929 +097 +097 062067 068 056 005 00
155730 1934N 05706W 6971 03044 9918 +103 +101 063068 070 058 005 00
155800 1933N 05705W 6970 03044 9920 +099 +096 063069 071 061 004 00
155830 1932N 05704W 6969 03035 9912 +099 +099 063072 073 061 006 00
155900 1932N 05703W 6968 03031 9909 +097 +097 060072 073 061 008 00
155930 1931N 05702W 6967 03028 9913 +089 +089 059075 078 063 005 01
160000 1930N 05700W 6972 03017 9898 +095 +095 062079 082 064 003 00
160030 1929N 05659W 6970 03005 9884 +098 +098 064081 082 065 001 00
160100 1928N 05658W 6966 03006 9873 +100 +100 065081 082 064 002 00
160130 1928N 05657W 6974 02995 9859 +106 +106 065087 088 067 003 00
160200 1927N 05656W 6962 03002 9860 +097 +097 065091 092 067 006 00
160230 1926N 05655W 6967 02985 9848 +097 +097 064092 093 069 009 01
160300 1925N 05654W 6968 02977 9843 +099 +099 061086 088 070 009 00
160330 1924N 05652W 6971 02968 9838 +097 +097 061088 091 071 006 00
160400 1923N 05651W 6970 02958 9822 +102 +102 062090 092 070 007 00
160430 1923N 05650W 6969 02951 9807 +106 +106 063091 093 072 010 00
160500 1922N 05649W 6968 02940 9990 +096 +999 063094 094 074 014 01

[KWT]

Yeah, I think we may also see the NHC bring the cone back towards the NE agaiun as well given both the ensembles above and the new GFS run.

[btangy]

8/19/09 12Z GFS: Upper level low E of NC is handled similarly through 36 hours with elongation and a split occurring with the N piece merging with the eastern upper level low and lifting gradually NE-ward. S piece doesn't quite dig as fast SSW as the NAM but is further SW compared to the 00Z GFS. Nevertheless, from past experience, these cut off upper level lows are never handled very well by any of the model guidance. If this upper level low sneaks SW of Bill, it may prolong its NW movement. In any case, this should provide a source of southerly vertical wind shear weakening Bill.

Evolution of the Midwest trough is different in the medium range. The GFS continues to trend slightly more amplified with quite a bit more vorticity rounding the base of the trough at 60 hours compared to the 00Z run but is still not as deep, elongated, and positively tilted as the NAM. This pattern in better agreement with the 00Z GEFS ensemble mean. As a result of more energy rounding the base of the trough, 500mb low comes close to cutting off near Toronto as the north portion of the trough begins to lift out after 72 hours.

Resulting affect on Bill's track is further W more in line with the 00Z GEFS ensemble through 90 hours so far.

[wxman57]

Of course you are, but just checking - Curvature of the earth accounted for? Unequal distance between longitudinal lines with differing latitudes compensated? 306 seems Mighty NW to me.

I measure a 3hr heading of 306 deg. at 15.7 kts.

I'm running GARP to view Gempak on a Solaris workstation. The program calculates heading/distance between two points on the globe. So all factors are accounted for.

As of 11AM CDT:
6hr movement 305 deg at 14.8 kts
3hr movement 309 deg at 17.3 kts

So the current heading is NW. I believe the NHC may be using a 12-hr motion vs. 3 or 6 hrs.

[TheEuropean]

000
URNT15 KNHC 191615
AF303 0203A BILL HDOB 15 20090819
160530 1921N 05648W 6961 02937 9990 +094 +999 064098 100 075 011 01
160600 1920N 05647W 6974 02906 9990 +096 +999 065100 101 076 018 01
160630 1919N 05646W 6968 02899 9990 +095 +999 066101 103 077 017 01
160700 1918N 05645W 6974 02875 9990 +094 +999 066105 106 081 018 01
160730 1917N 05644W 6967 02866 9990 +092 +999 067110 112 082 021 01
160800 1917N 05643W 6970 02844 9990 +103 +999 065103 107 083 017 01
160830 1916N 05642W 6969 02837 9990 +105 +999 063097 097 082 020 01
160900 1915N 05641W 6960 02825 9990 +102 +999 062105 108 088 022 01
160930 1914N 05640W 6997 02753 9990 +111 +999 056081 092 093 009 01
161000 1913N 05639W 6950 02805 9561 +143 +141 046078 083 098 007 03
161030 1912N 05638W 6994 02721 9541 +150 +136 044060 066 093 008 03
161100 1911N 05637W 6963 02747 9511 +173 +105 052040 046 091 000 03
161130 1909N 05635W 6973 02728 9493 +184 +090 057034 037 061 002 03
161200 1908N 05634W 6963 02729 9498 +175 +068 075023 025 040 002 03
161230 1906N 05633W 6967 02722 9492 +171 +067 076019 020 032 001 03
161300 1905N 05633W 6971 02707 9490 +167 +074 064014 016 026 003 03
161330 1903N 05632W 6970 02706 9489 +163 +086 062010 012 023 002 03
161400 1902N 05631W 6970 02704 9477 +177 +072 127012 013 020 002 03
161430 1900N 05631W 6972 02705 9470 +179 +101 156006 010 021 004 03
161500 1858N 05631W 6962 02710 9459 +185 +112 242005 008 024 002 00

Sorry, no more time, please someone else take over.

[greels]

Once again, I thank everyone on here for their comments and views on Hurricane Bill.

Last year I lived on Provo, TCI and through the information and insight I gained from the contributors here, was forewarned when Hurricane Ike was about to hit our Islands. On the Island itself, we were given very little notice as their weather advisories are issued out of Nassau, Bahamas (????)

Moving forward, I have now left the TCI's and reside in a town not too far inland from Cape Cod, As such, I am following closely the projected paths of Bill.

My best to everyone and I thank you again for your valuable input.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

crap this thing is getting to close to Long Island and Boston for comfort. Givin the average the models are shifting west with each run. Dont like it one bit. STOP IT BILL



FWIW i think it still misses everybody.

[ronjon]

Nice synopsis btangy - here is the 12Z GFS 500 mb pattern. Looks like a blocking situation setting up with the main trough energy ejecting NE into NE Canada and leaving behind a cutoff low near Ontario. If this verifies, it grinds the trough to a halt allowing the Atlantic ridge to maintain its strength. Evolving scenario for New England which should have everyone up there on pins and needles.

[Gigsley]

URNT15 KNHC 191625
AF303 0203A BILL HDOB 16 20090819
161530 1856N 05632W 6969 02704 9461 +187 +109 287019 022 024 002 00
161600 1855N 05632W 6970 02712 9473 +181 +114 279035 043 032 003 00
161630 1853N 05632W 6961 02739 9481 +186 +112 280056 059 050 004 00
161700 1851N 05632W 6982 02737 9506 +184 +117 275070 074 058 002 03
161730 1849N 05630W 6979 02756 9545 +166 +115 271090 095 073 001 03
161800 1848N 05628W 6973 02788 9579 +159 +103 259098 100 073 000 00
161830 1847N 05626W 6971 02808 9593 +168 +092 254097 098 074 001 03
161900 1846N 05624W 6970 02830 9632 +151 +101 243099 101 072 002 03
161930 1845N 05622W 6965 02851 9664 +133 +115 237099 100 071 003 00
162000 1845N 05619W 6979 02852 9691 +126 +123 227101 102 073 003 00
162030 1844N 05617W 6967 02882 9706 +126 +116 225100 101 075 005 00
162100 1843N 05616W 6968 02898 9731 +121 +107 224101 102 076 004 00
162130 1842N 05614W 6968 02912 9753 +117 +104 222100 101 075 006 00
162200 1841N 05613W 6967 02932 9777 +112 +097 224098 100 071 005 00
162230 1840N 05612W 6979 02931 9800 +105 +100 222092 094 068 004 00
162300 1839N 05611W 6971 02952 9813 +100 +100 221088 091 065 005 00
162330 1838N 05610W 6978 02949 9990 +085 +999 218090 092 062 009 01
162400 1837N 05609W 6969 02973 9841 +099 +099 218089 091 060 005 00
162430 1836N 05608W 6970 02981 9850 +100 +100 216086 087 060 004 00
162500 1834N 05607W 6967 02993 9860 +099 +099 216085 086 056 003 00

[littlevince]

[Brent]

:eek:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_090l.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_102l.gif
Close..

Way too close. That's a big shift west too. Disturbing.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

:eek:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_090l.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_102l.gif
Close..

Way too close. That's a big shift west too. Disturbing.

Whats more disturbing is abundance of time left to further shift

[Frank2]

Perhaps, but (per the pro mets) the trough will still allow for enough of a shear environment, so Bill will not be the same system we see today - even if it does come close to a portion of the EC...

Frank

[CronkPSU]

I know I for one, kept thinking the NHC was off on its path but so far it has verified incredibly well...isn't there a site that checks on that kind of info?