ATL: TROPICAL STORM BILL (03L)

[Gigsley]

URNT15 KNHC 191636
AF303 0203A BILL HDOB 17 20090819
162530 1833N 05605W 6971 02997 9870 +099 +099 213085 086 056 003 00
162600 1832N 05604W 6969 03006 9875 +100 +100 213085 086 055 000 00
162630 1831N 05603W 6967 03012 9880 +100 +100 210084 084 054 002 00
162700 1830N 05602W 6975 03008 9887 +100 +100 210083 084 053 002 00
162730 1829N 05601W 6963 03028 9898 +095 +095 208083 083 053 004 00
162800 1828N 05600W 6970 03021 9902 +096 +096 207083 084 053 003 00
162830 1827N 05559W 6970 03027 9896 +105 +099 209080 081 053 002 00
162900 1826N 05558W 6971 03035 9893 +114 +092 212079 080 055 002 00
162930 1825N 05557W 6970 03036 9897 +116 +086 212078 079 055 003 00
163000 1824N 05556W 6970 03046 9899 +120 +074 213077 079 055 004 00
163030 1823N 05554W 6970 03046 9904 +121 +064 212079 079 056 003 00
163100 1822N 05553W 6973 03051 9905 +123 +063 212077 078 055 003 00
163130 1821N 05552W 6971 03057 9912 +122 +061 213075 075 054 002 00
163200 1821N 05552W 6971 03057 9920 +120 +064 213073 074 052 000 00
163230 1819N 05550W 6969 03065 9925 +118 +069 212072 072 052 001 00
163300 1817N 05549W 6974 03063 9935 +112 +081 212071 072 051 000 00
163330 1816N 05548W 6966 03074 9940 +111 +078 212070 071 051 001 00
163400 1815N 05546W 6971 03071 9946 +109 +080 213070 071 049 002 00
163430 1814N 05545W 6971 03075 9960 +101 +084 210071 072 049 001 00
163500 1813N 05544W 6975 03076 9961 +100 +087 210071 072 048 001 00

[littlevince]

[Brent]

Perhaps, but (per the pro mets) the trough will still allow for enough of a shear environment, so Bill will not be the same system we see today - even if it does come close to a portion of the EC...

Frank

I don't think anyone expects a Cat 4 that far north(and shouldn't), but a hurricane is a hurricane, especially for that area which isn't used to it.

[artist]

I know I for one, kept thinking the NHC was off on its path but so far it has verified incredibly well...isn't there a site that checks on that kind of info?

In yrs past I think Mike Watkins used to keep that type of information. DOn't know if he still does or not.

[Frank2]

True, true - folks from the GC and FL are mostly used to it, but folks from up north ain't (aren't). Just finished watching Gunsmoke - I'm sounding like Festus (Haggen) more and more (LOL)...

I still think tonigh'ts 00Z model run will provide a pretty good idea of Bill's northward track - hopefully the NOAA Guflstream IV will be doing some synoptic flights later today, since that data would really help...

Frank

[Gigsley]

URNT15 KNHC 191646
AF303 0203A BILL HDOB 18 20090819
163530 1812N 05543W 6969 03088 9962 +105 +081 209070 071 051 002 00
163600 1811N 05542W 6972 03085 9964 +105 +084 211069 070 051 001 00
163630 1810N 05541W 6974 03085 9972 +101 +092 212071 072 049 003 00
163700 1809N 05540W 6970 03092 9980 +096 +095 209067 068 050 003 00
163730 1808N 05539W 6970 03096 9982 +099 +093 209069 070 050 002 00
163800 1807N 05538W 6967 03100 9985 +094 +094 207067 068 050 004 01
163830 1806N 05536W 6978 03091 9989 +093 +093 211065 067 050 005 01
163900 1804N 05535W 6969 03108 9990 +086 +999 214064 065 049 007 01
163930 1803N 05534W 6970 03107 9990 +083 +999 212067 069 048 008 01
164000 1802N 05533W 6964 03115 9990 +074 +999 209066 067 048 009 01
164030 1801N 05532W 6967 03114 9990 +073 +999 210066 066 048 008 01
164100 1800N 05531W 6968 03115 0015 +085 +085 208063 065 047 006 00
164130 1759N 05530W 6970 03114 9990 +086 +999 204063 066 050 010 01
164200 1758N 05528W 6972 03110 9990 +076 +999 201063 066 055 023 01
164230 1757N 05527W 6963 03120 9990 +069 +999 197063 065 053 027 01
164300 1756N 05526W 6973 03113 9990 +066 +999 200061 062 049 014 01
164330 1755N 05525W 6967 03127 0040 +074 +074 201061 062 045 009 00
164400 1754N 05524W 6971 03121 0032 +083 +083 202062 063 043 007 00
164430 1753N 05523W 6971 03123 0027 +087 +085 202064 064 042 007 00
164500 1751N 05522W 6968 03128 0026 +084 +084 201067 070 046 018 05

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Last significant NE cane was Bob which destroyed entire towns despite only being Cat 1/weak cat 2

[ronjon]

12Z NAM 500 mb pattern at 84 hrs. Blocked flow similar to GFS w/o the cutoff low over Ontario.

[littlevince]

NW sonde


SE sonde


Vortex Message

[Iune]

[ronjon]

1938 hurricane track - was only 85 mph at landfall but had a pressure of 940 mb.

[Gigsley]

URNT15 KNHC 191655
AF303 0203A BILL HDOB 19 20090819
164530 1750N 05522W 6930 03178 9990 +077 +999 204053 060 043 020 05
164600 1749N 05520W 6997 03097 9990 +061 +999 199062 066 048 023 05
164630 1749N 05519W 6966 03133 9990 +062 +999 198065 066 043 006 05
164700 1748N 05517W 6962 03143 0059 +071 +071 197067 068 042 005 03
164730 1748N 05515W 6971 03135 0050 +082 +082 196067 067 999 999 03
164800 1750N 05514W 6974 03132 0044 +084 +078 193068 068 040 003 00
164830 1752N 05513W 6973 03132 0046 +082 +082 192067 067 040 003 00
164900 1754N 05511W 6971 03131 0048 +080 +076 192068 068 042 003 00
164930 1756N 05510W 6969 03134 0047 +080 +078 191068 068 041 003 00
165000 1758N 05509W 6969 03134 0044 +080 +078 191068 068 040 004 00
165030 1800N 05507W 6971 03133 0049 +080 +078 191067 068 040 004 03
165100 1802N 05507W 6973 03128 0048 +080 +080 190068 068 045 002 00
165130 1804N 05507W 6969 03130 0042 +081 +077 190068 068 044 002 00
165200 1807N 05507W 6971 03127 0040 +085 +072 189069 069 043 003 00
165230 1809N 05507W 6969 03129 0040 +085 +069 188069 070 044 002 00
165300 1811N 05506W 6970 03128 0040 +082 +064 186070 070 044 003 00
165330 1814N 05506W 6971 03125 0033 +084 +064 186069 069 045 003 00
165400 1816N 05506W 6969 03123 0030 +089 +067 185069 070 048 002 00
165430 1818N 05506W 6969 03127 0031 +085 +071 184070 070 048 003 00
165500 1821N 05506W 6970 03123 0034 +085 +072 185071 072 047 004 00

[DESTRUCTION5]

Oooo....2009 Desktop Wallpaper

[Duffy1966]

Last significant NE cane was Bob which destroyed entire towns despite only being Cat 1/weak cat 2

I remember that, it made landfall around Waterville, Maine, which is about an Hour North of me, had I been here then, we probably woulda been close to the Eyewall

I live on the Coast of Maine, so will be watching this *carefully*

[Duffy1966]

Last significant NE cane was Bob which destroyed entire towns despite only being Cat 1/weak cat 2

I remember that, it made landfall around Waterville, Maine, which is about an Hour North of me, had I been here then, we probably woulda been close to the Eyewall

I live on the Coast of Maine, so will be watching this *carefully*

and in fact, that was August of 91, just about 18 years ago now

[Frank2]

Right - but the 1938 hurricane had a forward speed of 60 mph when it made landfall on Long Island!

The pro mets know the formula that makes the forward speed/wind speed adjustment...

Back to the model topic...

Frank

[littlevince]

[ronjon]

12Z CMC

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2009081912&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

[SEASON_CANCELED]

12Z CMC

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2009081912&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

Another system exact spot where bill is a week from now!!

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

So all factors are accounted for.

OK cool. curvature of the earth had me thrown for quite a bit, I could never understand why my calcs were off