ATL: TROPICAL STORM BILL (03L)

[cycloneye]

12z CMC gets real close to Cape Cod.

[jasons2k]

I hope someday our everyday 'standard' satellite images will be of that quality. Anyone know when that will happen?

[TCmet]

please post the raw VDMs and sondes also, thanks.

[Gigsley]

URNT15 KNHC 191705
AF303 0203A BILL HDOB 20 20090819
165530 1823N 05506W 6970 03123 0033 +084 +075 184073 073 048 004 00
165600 1825N 05506W 6969 03125 0032 +082 +079 183073 073 047 005 00
165630 1827N 05506W 6969 03126 0031 +081 +081 181074 074 047 004 00
165700 1830N 05506W 6971 03118 0025 +086 +078 180073 073 047 004 00
165730 1832N 05506W 6967 03123 0020 +090 +078 179074 075 047 005 00
165800 1835N 05506W 6971 03118 0022 +088 +074 177076 077 047 005 00
165830 1837N 05506W 6971 03119 0029 +084 +078 176078 078 047 005 00
165900 1839N 05506W 6973 03117 0028 +082 +082 174078 078 048 005 00
165930 1842N 05506W 6970 03120 0028 +082 +082 172079 079 049 005 00
170000 1844N 05506W 6970 03119 0028 +083 +079 170078 079 050 004 00
170030 1847N 05506W 6970 03117 0029 +081 +081 169081 081 051 004 00
170100 1849N 05506W 6970 03115 0026 +081 +081 169083 083 050 005 00
170130 1851N 05506W 6971 03114 0023 +086 +080 168081 083 050 005 00
170200 1854N 05507W 6967 03123 0019 +088 +080 168080 080 048 006 03
170230 1856N 05507W 6971 03116 0018 +090 +080 169081 081 050 005 00
170300 1858N 05508W 6967 03117 0017 +087 +080 168083 083 051 005 00
170330 1901N 05508W 6969 03116 0014 +090 +080 169083 083 051 005 00
170400 1903N 05509W 6969 03117 0015 +087 +080 166085 086 052 005 00
170430 1906N 05510W 6971 03110 0010 +091 +080 164088 090 052 005 03
170500 1908N 05510W 6967 03112 0011 +088 +080 164087 088 052 005 00

[Derek Ortt]

the 1938 hurricane had 100KT winds at landfall. Reanalysis already did that storm

[x-y-no]

Once again, I thank everyone on here for their comments and views on Hurricane Bill.

Last year I lived on Provo, TCI and through the information and insight I gained from the contributors here, was forewarned when Hurricane Ike was about to hit our Islands. On the Island itself, we were given very little notice as their weather advisories are issued out of Nassau, Bahamas (????)

Moving forward, I have now left the TCI's and reside in a town not too far inland from Cape Cod, As such, I am following closely the projected paths of Bill.

My best to everyone and I thank you again for your valuable input.

Wareham! That's where I was born.

My parents are in Falmouth, so I'm watching this real closely too.

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

I know I for one, kept thinking the NHC was off on its path but so far it has verified incredibly well...isn't there a site that checks on that kind of info?

They do themselves at the end of each season.

[hcane27]

I know I for one, kept thinking the NHC was off on its path but so far it has verified incredibly well...isn't there a site that checks on that kind of info?

Check http://www.hurricanealley.net ... the North Atlantic section for Bill and there is a model error page there that shows the model performance for Bill up through 8/19 12z

[littlevince]

[HurricaneRobert]

Wikipedia one is chopped up, but the original one is still here, and more dramatic:

http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/gall ... 40.2km.jpg

[Gigsley]

URNT12 KNHC 191642
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL032009
A. 19/16:15:00Z
B. 18 deg 58 min N
056 deg 31 min W
C. 700 mb 2665 m
D. 98 kt
E. 332 deg 16 nm
F. 067 deg 111 kt
G. 326 deg 22 nm
H. 949 mb
I. 10 C / 3044 m
J. 19 C / 3049 m
K. 11 C / NA
L. OPEN SW
M. E20/32/24
N. 12345 / 07
O. 0.02 / 0.2 nm
P. AF303 0203A BILL OB 06
MAX FL WIND 111 KT NW QUAD 16:07:40Z

[Gigsley]

UZNT13 KNHC 191655
XXAA 69167 99187 70563 04286 99970 26003 18567 00768 ///// /////
92421 23201 21104 85159 20003 22083 70824 ///// 22598 88999 77999
31313 09608 81620
61616 AF303 0203A BILL OB 09
62626 EYEWALL 135 SPL 1882N05622W 1624 MBL WND 20591 AEV 20801 DL
M WND 21592 969697 WL150 19583 083 REL 1873N05629W 162029 SPG 188
2N05622W 162446 =
XXBB 69168 99187 70563 04286 00970 26003 11850 20003 22711 14213
33701 ///// 44697 13019
21212 00970 18567 11967 19071 22963 19585 33961 19588 44955 20089
55947 20098 66935 21090 77925 21104 88917 20591 99911 20596 11907
21090 22903 22096 33895 22089 44876 22084 55868 22085 66861 22080
77850 22083 88697 22599
31313 09608 81620
61616 AF303 0203A BILL OB 09
62626 EYEWALL 135 SPL 1882N05622W 1624 MBL WND 20591 AEV 20801 DL
M WND 21592 969697 WL150 19583 083 REL 1873N05629W 162029 SPG 188
2N05622W 162446 =

[Category 5]

Weekend + Rip currents from Hurricane = Deaths on the Jersey shore, never fails that the shoobies ignore the warnings. The timing has me worried.

I may just have to grab my camera and take a trip down on Sunday.

[Gigsley]

URNT15 KNHC 191715
AF303 0203A BILL HDOB 21 20090819
170530 1910N 05511W 6971 03108 0004 +092 +080 164086 086 052 005 00
170600 1913N 05512W 6969 03111 0004 +093 +080 161088 089 053 005 00
170630 1915N 05513W 6969 03110 0005 +091 +080 158089 090 052 006 00
170700 1917N 05514W 6972 03104 0008 +085 +080 155090 092 053 006 00
170730 1919N 05516W 6970 03105 0003 +088 +080 153095 096 052 007 00
170800 1922N 05517W 6971 03101 9998 +091 +080 155090 092 053 007 00
170830 1924N 05518W 6969 03107 0002 +089 +080 156090 090 054 007 00
170900 1926N 05519W 6968 03102 0007 +084 +080 151091 093 054 007 00
170930 1928N 05520W 6969 03101 0005 +084 +080 151094 095 053 007 00
171000 1931N 05521W 6973 03098 0005 +083 +080 149093 094 053 007 00
171030 1933N 05522W 6966 03104 0007 +081 +080 150097 098 054 006 03
171100 1935N 05523W 6968 03101 0008 +081 +080 145098 100 055 007 00
171130 1938N 05524W 6973 03094 0006 +082 +080 145096 098 058 006 03
171200 1940N 05525W 6970 03100 0004 +084 +080 147095 096 058 006 00
171230 1942N 05525W 6968 03103 0006 +083 +080 145094 095 057 010 00
171300 1945N 05526W 6967 03096 0008 +079 +079 149083 086 050 027 00
171330 1947N 05526W 6953 03111 0008 +076 +076 144093 101 058 017 00
171400 1950N 05526W 6986 03080 0030 +063 +063 140100 105 058 024 00
171430 1952N 05526W 6968 03100 0020 +069 +069 141087 089 058 026 00
171500 1954N 05526W 6966 03103 0033 +061 +061 139080 084 055 014 00

[shah8]

I'm beginning to think that threads like these from when Hurricane Gloria was rolling around would have been extremely invaluable. Hurricane Bill *feels* like something like Gloria.

Man, 10, 20 years down the road, people are going to be arguing about storms and digging into the archives from this time and prolly 2005 as well in order to say that Hurricane Quesada is going to behave *just* like Hurricane Ophelia...

[Gustywind]

Continuing to miss all the islands of the Lesser Antilles we can get a small breath right now... . Whereas we will be very happy to see Bill at 20 N, that would be the good news. Thereafter, we could say in chorus BYE BYE BIG BABY BILL:)

[littlevince]

[CronkPSU]

I know I for one, kept thinking the NHC was off on its path but so far it has verified incredibly well...isn't there a site that checks on that kind of info?

Check http://www.hurricanealley.net ... the North Atlantic section for Bill and there is a model error page there that shows the model performance for Bill up through 8/19 12z

ahhh....very cool!

[Gigsley]

URNT15 KNHC 191725
AF303 0203A BILL HDOB 22 20090819
171530 1956N 05527W 6969 03104 0028 +067 +067 141081 082 055 011 00
171600 1959N 05527W 6970 03102 0021 +076 +076 137088 090 054 008 00
171630 2001N 05527W 6973 03104 0022 +077 +077 138085 086 053 009 00
171700 2003N 05527W 6969 03113 0038 +068 +068 136092 093 052 010 00
171730 2005N 05528W 6970 03110 0054 +058 +058 130094 095 053 010 00
171800 2007N 05528W 6964 03118 0044 +067 +067 131093 094 053 007 00
171830 2010N 05528W 6971 03118 0039 +071 +071 131094 095 053 009 00
171900 2012N 05528W 6971 03121 0041 +072 +072 130091 091 052 010 00
171930 2014N 05528W 6967 03124 0043 +074 +074 131093 094 053 009 00
172000 2016N 05529W 6970 03126 0056 +067 +067 129092 093 054 010 00
172030 2018N 05529W 6970 03127 0053 +070 +070 131092 093 052 009 00
172100 2021N 05529W 6969 03128 0051 +072 +072 132093 093 052 010 00
172130 2023N 05529W 6969 03128 0048 +075 +075 132092 092 050 010 00
172200 2025N 05529W 6970 03137 0050 +075 +075 131091 092 049 011 00
172230 2027N 05530W 6964 03147 0068 +069 +069 131088 089 999 999 03
172300 2028N 05532W 6970 03144 0068 +070 +070 130087 088 999 999 03
172330 2027N 05533W 6972 03129 0055 +074 +074 129086 086 050 010 03
172400 2026N 05534W 6970 03129 0045 +076 +076 129087 087 049 010 00
172430 2025N 05536W 6970 03128 0048 +074 +074 129087 087 050 010 00
172500 2023N 05537W 6970 03123 0045 +074 +074 127085 086 051 010 00

[ronjon]

Bill's projected path looks alot like Carol in 1953.