ATL: TROPICAL STORM BILL (03L)

[cheezyWXguy]

Does anyone know why the BAMM Model is always so far east?

thanks

its always the furthest east model on every run

CLIPS is pretty erratic as well

The BAM models are primarily used for lower latitude and MDR tracks, not for the higher latitiude systems that Bill is soon to be. And as said before, CLIPS isn't a model, but more of a CLImatology reference, based on how storms in the past moved in the same general area, if I'm correct.

[Normandy]

To me the big flick with the 18Z is it is different with it's handling of the upper system vs. the 12 Z run. See for yourself at the same verify time:

84 hours at 18Z:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_084m.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_090m.gif

Will be intersting to see what happens with the 0Z runs.

Also, is there an environmental mission tonight?

MW

Question, dont mean to bother you.
What is the difference in the handling of the upper air system? I'm meteorologically challenged

[KWT]

Very true will be interesting to see how the 0z handles everything, esp the tilting of the upper trough and how positive...or even slightly negative it may well turn out to be. Not a done deal yet then!

[MWatkins]

No bother at all!

Notice the 12Z upper system has a closed off analyized low in the mid levels. The 18Z does not have the closed low and instead shows a more of a trough like feature which would be less likely to dig in south of Bill, but has the same net affect by grabbling the hurricane and taking it on the same track as the 12Z.

Just baffles me how the GFS can change from run to run!

MW

[wxman57]

Does anyone know why the BAMM Model is always so far east?

thanks

its always the furthest east model on every run

CLIPS is pretty erratic as well

First thing to do is to ignore any model with "BAM" as the first 3 letters. Those are trajectory models, meaning they make the assumption that the current state of the atmosphere (the steering currents) will remain constant over the next 5 days:

BAMS - shallow layer flow
BAMM - mid layer flow
BAMD - deep layer flow

The BAM models can be a useful first guess for a developing hurricane by Africa, but they won't pick up on changes in the steering patterns along the track. I.E., they're not "dynamic" models.

The CLIP5 is not a real model, it's a climatology/persistence model. It simply analyzes where previous storms have tracked given the current position of Bill and then computes a "most likely" track based on past storms. It knows nothing about the current steering currents. It should be ignored.

Look for a model labeled TVCC or TVCN. Those are consensus and corrected consensus models. These are the most accurate, typically, as they rely on a variety of dynamic models to produce a consensus track.

I strongly suggest reading this web page describing the various models:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/modelsummary.shtml

[KWT]

FWIW it the 18z is a little east of the 12z, whats interesting though is the shift somewhat west from the 12z ECM, going to be interesting to see whether that stays on the 0z run.

I think at the least if the models stay put we are looking at some TS watches going up in the NE USA.

[RattleMan]

HDOB 11 is missing.

000
URNT15 KWBC 192225
NOAA3 WX03A BILL4 HDOB 12 20090819
221600 2039N 05833W 6963 03059 9922 +104 +091 066064 065 058 002 00
221630 2041N 05835W 6963 03062 9930 +099 +096 067064 065 058 005 00
221700 2042N 05836W 6963 03069 9937 +097 +097 066068 071 058 011 00
221730 2044N 05838W 6962 03076 9943 +098 +098 059072 075 060 017 00
221800 2045N 05840W 6965 03077 9949 +098 +098 058071 073 054 008 00
221830 2047N 05841W 6963 03083 9953 +098 +098 061070 071 053 004 00
221900 2048N 05843W 6961 03090 9958 +099 +099 062071 072 054 005 00
221930 2050N 05845W 6957 03099 9966 +095 +095 066076 078 053 005 00
222000 2052N 05846W 6961 03093 9968 +094 +094 064076 076 056 011 00
222030 2053N 05848W 6967 03089 9971 +093 +093 067081 082 053 008 00
222100 2055N 05850W 6964 03097 9975 +094 +094 070083 084 053 007 03
222130 2056N 05852W 6959 03103 9972 +098 +098 067077 078 051 007 00
222200 2058N 05853W 6959 03107 9972 +101 +101 067075 079 050 003 00
222230 2059N 05855W 6963 03108 9980 +099 +099 069080 082 050 002 00
222300 2101N 05857W 6963 03112 9986 +097 +097 073079 081 047 001 00
222330 2103N 05858W 6965 03113 9992 +096 +096 073080 081 047 001 00
222400 2104N 05900W 6963 03120 9998 +096 +096 071078 080 046 001 00
222430 2106N 05902W 6966 03120 9998 +099 +098 066075 076 999 999 03
222500 2105N 05905W 6964 03127 0005 +097 +096 063076 076 999 999 03
222530 2103N 05906W 6962 03128 0004 +097 +097 066076 076 044 001 00

Code: Select all

TIME         Latit.    Long.    Plane. Prs.   Height   Pressure   Temp   Dew Pt.   Dir, 30s mean   FL    SFMR   Precip   QC
22:16:00z   20.39°N   58.33°W   696.3 hPa   3059m   992.2 hPa   10.4°C   9.1°C   66° @ 064kt   65kt   58kt   2mm   OK
22:16:30z   20.41°N   58.35°W   696.3 hPa   3062m   993.0 hPa   9.9°C   9.6°C   67° @ 064kt   65kt   58kt   5mm   OK
22:17:00z   20.42°N   58.36°W   696.3 hPa   3069m   993.7 hPa   9.7°C   9.7°C   66° @ 068kt   71kt   58kt   11mm   OK
22:17:30z   20.44°N   58.38°W   696.2 hPa   3076m   994.3 hPa   9.8°C   9.8°C   59° @ 072kt   75kt   60kt   17mm   OK
22:18:00z   20.45°N   58.40°W   696.5 hPa   3077m   994.9 hPa   9.8°C   9.8°C   58° @ 071kt   73kt   54kt   8mm   OK
22:18:30z   20.47°N   58.41°W   696.3 hPa   3083m   995.3 hPa   9.8°C   9.8°C   61° @ 070kt   71kt   53kt   4mm   OK
22:19:00z   20.48°N   58.43°W   696.1 hPa   3090m   995.8 hPa   9.9°C   9.9°C   62° @ 071kt   72kt   54kt   5mm   OK
22:19:30z   20.50°N   58.45°W   695.7 hPa   3099m   996.6 hPa   9.5°C   9.5°C   66° @ 076kt   78kt   53kt   5mm   OK
22:20:00z   20.52°N   58.46°W   696.1 hPa   3093m   996.8 hPa   9.4°C   9.4°C   64° @ 076kt   76kt   56kt   11mm   OK
22:20:30z   20.53°N   58.48°W   696.7 hPa   3089m   997.1 hPa   9.3°C   9.3°C   67° @ 081kt   82kt   53kt   8mm   OK
22:21:00z   20.55°N   58.50°W   696.4 hPa   3097m   997.5 hPa   9.4°C   9.4°C   70° @ 083kt   84kt   53kt   7mm   Suspect
22:21:30z   20.56°N   58.52°W   695.9 hPa   3103m   997.2 hPa   9.8°C   9.8°C   67° @ 077kt   78kt   51kt   7mm   OK
22:22:00z   20.58°N   58.53°W   695.9 hPa   3107m   997.2 hPa   10.1°C   10.1°C   67° @ 075kt   79kt   50kt   3mm   OK
22:22:30z   20.59°N   58.55°W   696.3 hPa   3108m   998.0 hPa   9.9°C   9.9°C   69° @ 080kt   82kt   50kt   2mm   OK
22:23:00z   21.01°N   58.57°W   696.3 hPa   3112m   998.6 hPa   9.7°C   9.7°C   73° @ 079kt   81kt   47kt   1mm   OK
22:23:30z   21.03°N   58.58°W   696.5 hPa   3113m   999.2 hPa   9.6°C   9.6°C   73° @ 080kt   81kt   47kt   1mm   OK
22:24:00z   21.04°N   59.00°W   696.3 hPa   3120m   999.8 hPa   9.6°C   9.6°C   71° @ 078kt   80kt   46kt   1mm   OK
22:24:30z   21.06°N   59.02°W   696.6 hPa   3120m   999.8 hPa   9.9°C   9.8°C   66° @ 075kt   76kt   999kt   999mm   Suspect
22:25:00z   21.05°N   59.05°W   696.4 hPa   3127m   1005.5 hPa   9.7°C   9.6°C   63° @ 076kt   76kt   999kt   999mm   Suspect
22:25:30z   21.03°N   59.06°W   696.2 hPa   3128m   1004.4 hPa   9.7°C   9.7°C   66° @ 076kt   76kt   44kt   1mm   OK


[massweathernet]

waiting for the new 2100 utc steering flow charts .....to see if the ridge is building in a bit more (to close the weakness between 55-65) and turn wild bill more W

Link please!

[DreamworksSKG]

Is it just me or in the last couple satellite frames
does it look like Bill is moving more West than NW?
http://www.intellicast.com/Storm/Hurric ... large=true

[cpdaman]

waiting for the new 2100 utc steering flow charts .....to see if the ridge is building in a bit more (to close the weakness between 55-65) and turn wild bill more W

Link please!

just in 2100 utc

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm4.html

[hial2]

Does any one have that map to where you place the Highs and the hurricane around. I had it but can't find it for my gran daughter who is 6. She like my map on here. I thought she would like it.

Here, I made your daughter a nice colorful map.

Mr wxman57,in your map the "H" for high pressure is nowhere near where it is on this one (which I thought was the offcial one)...why?..forgive me,but I'm confused..
Thank you in advance for your answer..trying to learn.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html

[RattleMan]

Ob 5 after Ob 8 at the same time:

000
UZNT13 KWBC 192223
XXAA 69227 99201 70579 07807 99955 25800 34571 00911 ///// /////
92279 24205 00612 85020 21000 03093 70692 150// 03060 88999 77999
31313 09608 82204
61616 NOAA3 WX03A BILL4 OB 05
62626 REL 2006N05793W 220412 SPG 1999N05797W 220730 WL150 35586 0
85 DLM WND 02585 954698 MBL WND 00602=
XXBB 69228 99201 70579 07807 00955 25800 11947 24800 22924 24205
33799 19400 44723 15804 55697 150//
21212 00955 34571 11954 34573 22953 34567 33949 35083 44939 36097
55932 36099 66924 01114 77918 01112 88912 02123 99893 02614 11884
03119 22874 03115 33858 03591 44853 03591 55841 02601 66802 04069
77743 03560 88711 02577 99699 03059 11697 03074
31313 09608 82204
61616 NOAA3 WX03A BILL4 OB 05
62626 REL 2006N05793W 220412 SPG 1999N05797W 220730 WL150 35586 0
85 DLM WND 02585 954698 MBL WND 00602=

[floridasun78]

Is it just me or in the last couple satellite frames
does it look like Bill is moving more West than NW?
http://www.intellicast.com/Storm/Hurric ... large=true

i ask same question

[Normandy]

The upper level high to Bill's NE seems to be building westward in tandem with Bills movement, would this induce Bill to move more WNW for a longer period of time?

[wxman57]

Does any one have that map to where you place the Highs and the hurricane around. I had it but can't find it for my gran daughter who is 6. She like my map on here. I thought she would like it.

Here, I made your daughter a nice colorful map.

Mr wxman57,in your map the "H" for high pressure is nowhere near where it is on this one (which I thought was the offcial one)...why?..forgive me,but I'm confused..
Thank you in advance for your answer..trying to learn.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html

The map I made was for 7pm CDT this evening. I used the GFS forecast data to place the highs/lows. By this evening, that high center over the NE Great Lakes is gone. I didn't draw any fronts on the map. Would have to draw them by hand.

Here, I modified the map slightly. I left the weak high near Bermuda off because there was no closed isobar around it. Added the front, too:

[KWT]

Yeah the models can't quite decide between having a weak closed off low forming or a trough, however fair play to the NAM for once it did prog the idea of maybe a weak cut-off low first I believe.

[RattleMan]

000
UZNT13 KWBC 192231
XXAA 69227 99197 70575 04297 99955 26200 17581 00911 ///// /////
92280 24400 19109 85023 21600 20098 70698 158// 21577 88999 77999
31313 09608 82156
61616 NOAA3 WX03A BILL4 OB 07
62626 REL 1974N05750W 215628 SPG 1983N05746W 220024 WL150 18593 0
87 DLM WND 20591 954696 MBL WND 19102 LST WND 012=
XXBB 69228 99197 70575 04297 00955 26200 11945 25600 22836 20800
33728 16820 44696 15615
21212 00955 17581 11953 17593 22950 18090 33920 19111 44887 19597
55696 21577
31313 09608 82156
61616 NOAA3 WX03A BILL4 OB 07
62626 REL 1974N05750W 215628 SPG 1983N05746W 220024 WL150 18593 0
87 DLM WND 20591 954696 MBL WND 19102 LST WND 012=

[massweathernet]

waiting for the new 2100 utc steering flow charts .....to see if the ridge is building in a bit more (to close the weakness between 55-65) and turn wild bill more W

Link please!

just in 2100 utc

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm4.html

Looks like they've increased...

[hial2]

Thank you Mrwxman57..I assumed that the map I showed was "up to the minute"..

[RattleMan]

000
UZNT13 KWBC 192239
XXAA 69221 99248 70577 07847 99015 27024 09024 00129 26019 08525
92813 20600 10030 85544 18650 10533 70186 09240 12027 50589 05712
09510 40761 15520 12028 30973 29733 15012 25100 40136 15527 20248
52958 15542 15428 665// 16526 88999 77999
31313 09608 82215
61616 NOAA9 WX03A BILL4 OB 09
62626 SPL 2485N05776W 2230 MBL WND 09027 AEV 20801 DLM WND 12522
014149 WL150 08525 086 REL 2481N05767W 221543 SPG 2485N05776W 223
030 =
XXBB 69228 99248 70577 07847 00015 27024 11930 20800 22860 17603
33850 18650 44807 17056 55739 11027 66687 08440 77610 01408 88569
01107 99557 00750 11524 05920 22502 05511 33383 17123 44314 27332
55263 36937 66226 45937 77199 53358
21212 00015 09024 11986 09029 22901 10528 33850 10533 44734 10532
55703 12028 66607 08027 77576 09021 88554 05521 99520 04015 11503
09010 22490 10011 33446 09013 44372 13532 55326 13020 66293 16011
77283 14514 88195 15543 99174 16039 11156 19034
31313 09608 82215
61616 NOAA9 WX03A BILL4 OB 09
62626 SPL 2485N05776W 2230 MBL WND 09027 AEV 20801 DLM WND 12522
014149 WL150 08525 086 REL 2481N05767W 221543 SPG 2485N05776W 223
030 =