ATL: TROPICAL STORM BILL (03L)

[KWT]

Dreeze, that at least supports 120kts which is probably what the NHC will go to I imagine.

[shah8]

Well, the strongest intensity is modeled to be in about 18 hours.

[KWT]

Unless the northern quadrant improves a little I can't imagine how it can get much stronger then it is right now to be honest?

[RattleMan]

UZNT13 KWBC 200029
XXAA 70001 99174 70553 04275 99008 28242 ///// 00074 27639 17023
92761 23258 19527 85494 18028 21028 70135 09665 19532 50586 05968
18531 40757 15549 21020 30969 29130 25013 25097 39532 25012 20245
517// 19503 15427 657// 18006 88999 77999
31313 09608 80015
61616 NOAA9 WX03A BILL4 OB 16
62626 SPL 1748N05524W 0026 LST WND 034 AEV 20801 DLM WND 20017 00
4145 WL150 17521 091 REL 1742N05526W 001546 SPG 1693N05608W 00255
8 =
XXBB 70008 99174 70553 04275 00008 28242 11947 23424 22927 23258
33896 21659 44850 18028 55841 17633 66828 17462 77778 15463 88741
12459 99677 08871 11636 06265 22624 05476 33606 04679 44564 01268
55519 03963 66505 05567 77479 07379 88462 08963 99448 09764 11431
11966 22421 13157 33405 14959 44395 16122 55385 17321 66377 18956
77369 19326 88332 23727 99230 43943 11218 46950
21212 00008 ///// 11004 13036 22000 16523 33994 19521 44986 18019
55977 18028 66966 17020 77958 19025 88942 17531 99932 18023 11924
19527 22907 19529 33889 20522 44883 22023 55874 19024 66861 19520
77850 21028 88795 17528 99787 20026 11775 20033 22758 18533 33749
15531 44736 18533 55709 18037 66697 20034 77667 19022 88608 19028
99596 17532 11583 19537 22558 19016 33551 17016 44544 21528 55536
22032 66527 20019 77521 21518 88516 18517 99512 19015 11510 19516
22505 16523 33499 19032 44492 21526 55488 19018 66486 17522 77482
18036 88468 17544 99461 17023 11455 21009 22450 20514 33445 25019
44442 25020 55440 24021 66400 21020 77388 17518 88367 20023 99340
20517 11336 22014 22329 19509 33324 23513 44307 19014 55296 27016
66251 25016 77228 27510 88211 20513 99176 19510 11174 18012 22165
00000 33157 08011 44155 09017
31313 09608 80015
61616 NOAA9 WX03A BILL4 OB 16
62626 SPL 1748N05524W 0026 LST WND 034 AEV 20801 DLM WND 20017 00
4145 WL150 17521 091 REL 1742N05526W 001546 SPG 1693N05608W 00255
8 =


URNT15 KWBC 200025
NOAA3 WX03A BILL4 HDOB 24 20090820
001600 2115N 05816W 6955 03077 9939 +095 +095 091096 098 062 008 00
001630 2113N 05816W 6952 03074 9928 +098 +098 096097 102 064 011 00
001700 2111N 05816W 6955 03063 9911 +104 +104 097095 097 069 010 00
001730 2109N 05816W 6955 03057 9904 +104 +104 098095 097 072 008 00
001800 2107N 05816W 6959 03044 9894 +105 +105 099101 102 073 009 00
001830 2105N 05816W 6957 03034 9879 +106 +106 103104 109 073 016 00
001900 2104N 05816W 6958 03027 9868 +109 +109 105106 108 072 016 00
001930 2102N 05816W 6959 03018 9861 +109 +109 104102 105 074 013 00
002000 2100N 05816W 6952 03023 9859 +107 +107 103103 104 073 012 00
002030 2059N 05816W 6958 03012 9856 +105 +105 099103 104 073 006 00
002100 2057N 05816W 6957 03004 9845 +107 +107 097100 104 076 006 00
002130 2055N 05816W 6954 03000 9829 +112 +112 101107 108 083 005 00
002200 2053N 05816W 6958 02979 9811 +113 +113 101109 110 085 008 00
002230 2052N 05816W 6953 02974 9799 +112 +111 099114 115 082 010 00
002300 2050N 05816W 6958 02953 9778 +117 +116 098114 117 085 013 00
002330 2048N 05816W 6958 02941 9757 +121 +121 099114 116 087 017 00
002400 2046N 05817W 6954 02928 9739 +121 +121 099111 112 091 015 00
002430 2044N 05817W 6929 02940 9724 +116 +116 099113 116 089 010 00
002500 2043N 05817W 6958 02888 9696 +127 +123 101112 116 092 018 00
002530 2041N 05817W 6951 02873 9668 +127 +125 100120 122 097 040 00

Times will be incorrect for about 25 more minutes.

Code: Select all

TIME         Latit.    Long.    Plane. Prs.   Height   Pressure   Temp   Dew Pt.   Dir, 30s mean   FL    SFMR   Precip   QC
1:60:00z   21.15°N   58.16°W   695.5 hPa   3077m   993.9 hPa   9.5°C   9.5°C   91° @ 096kt   98kt   62kt   8mm   OK
1:63:30z   21.13°N   58.16°W   695.2 hPa   3074m   992.8 hPa   9.8°C   9.8°C   96° @ 097kt   102kt   64kt   11mm   OK
1:70:00z   21.11°N   58.16°W   695.5 hPa   3063m   991.1 hPa   10.4°C   10.4°C   97° @ 095kt   97kt   69kt   10mm   OK
1:73:30z   21.09°N   58.16°W   695.5 hPa   3057m   990.4 hPa   10.4°C   10.4°C   98° @ 095kt   97kt   72kt   8mm   OK
1:80:00z   21.07°N   58.16°W   695.9 hPa   3044m   989.4 hPa   10.5°C   10.5°C   99° @ 101kt   102kt   73kt   9mm   OK
1:83:30z   21.05°N   58.16°W   695.7 hPa   3034m   987.9 hPa   10.6°C   10.6°C   103° @ 104kt   109kt   73kt   16mm   OK
1:90:00z   21.04°N   58.16°W   695.8 hPa   3027m   986.8 hPa   10.9°C   10.9°C   105° @ 106kt   108kt   72kt   16mm   OK
1:93:30z   21.02°N   58.16°W   695.9 hPa   3018m   986.1 hPa   10.9°C   10.9°C   104° @ 102kt   105kt   74kt   13mm   OK
2:00:00z   21.00°N   58.16°W   695.2 hPa   3023m   985.9 hPa   10.7°C   10.7°C   103° @ 103kt   104kt   73kt   12mm   OK
2:03:30z   20.59°N   58.16°W   695.8 hPa   3012m   985.6 hPa   10.5°C   10.5°C   99° @ 103kt   104kt   73kt   6mm   OK
2:10:00z   20.57°N   58.16°W   695.7 hPa   3004m   984.5 hPa   10.7°C   10.7°C   97° @ 100kt   104kt   76kt   6mm   OK
2:13:30z   20.55°N   58.16°W   695.4 hPa   3000m   982.9 hPa   11.2°C   11.2°C   101° @ 107kt   108kt   83kt   5mm   OK
2:20:00z   20.53°N   58.16°W   695.8 hPa   2979m   981.1 hPa   11.3°C   11.3°C   101° @ 109kt   110kt   85kt   8mm   OK
2:23:30z   20.52°N   58.16°W   695.3 hPa   2974m   979.9 hPa   11.2°C   11.1°C   99° @ 114kt   115kt   82kt   10mm   OK
2:30:00z   20.50°N   58.16°W   695.8 hPa   2953m   977.8 hPa   11.7°C   11.6°C   98° @ 114kt   117kt   85kt   13mm   OK
2:33:30z   20.48°N   58.16°W   695.8 hPa   2941m   975.7 hPa   12.1°C   12.1°C   99° @ 114kt   116kt   87kt   17mm   OK
2:40:00z   20.46°N   58.17°W   695.4 hPa   2928m   973.9 hPa   12.1°C   12.1°C   99° @ 111kt   112kt   91kt   15mm   OK
2:43:30z   20.44°N   58.17°W   692.9 hPa   2940m   972.4 hPa   11.6°C   11.6°C   99° @ 113kt   116kt   89kt   10mm   OK
2:50:00z   20.43°N   58.17°W   695.8 hPa   2888m   969.6 hPa   12.7°C   12.3°C   101° @ 112kt   116kt   92kt   18mm   OK
2:53:30z   20.41°N   58.17°W   695.1 hPa   2873m   966.8 hPa   12.7°C   12.5°C   100° @ 120kt   122kt   97kt   40mm   OK


[RattleMan]

URNT15 KWBC 200035
NOAA3 WX03A BILL4 HDOB 25 20090820
002600 2039N 05817W 6991 02795 9656 +111 +111 096122 126 098 042 00
002630 2037N 05818W 6956 02801 9601 +110 +110 099123 127 097 046 00
002700 2035N 05818W 6899 02835 9487 +118 +118 106108 117 108 018 00
002730 2033N 05819W 6912 02802 9432 +135 +135 100083 088 105 014 00
002800 2031N 05819W 6953 02727 9400 +152 +152 094071 079 098 007 00
002830 2029N 05819W 6967 02698 9390 +174 +174 092055 061 069 001 03
002900 2027N 05819W 6966 02692 9440 +187 +115 098032 037 036 001 03
002930 2025N 05819W 6969 02686 9435 +194 +081 109018 022 999 999 03
003000 2023N 05820W 6966 02693 9435 +198 +060 098011 013 016 000 03
003030 2021N 05821W 6970 02689 9433 +202 +055 070007 010 012 000 03
003100 2019N 05820W 6964 02699 9451 +186 +061 120005 007 999 999 03
003130 2018N 05818W 6968 02695 9447 +192 +059 172010 012 008 000 03
003200 2016N 05818W 6968 02698 9453 +187 +065 183013 014 006 000 03
003230 2014N 05818W 6960 02709 9461 +180 +080 218015 016 006 000 00
003300 2012N 05818W 6963 02711 9455 +189 +101 230023 027 999 999 03
003330 2010N 05818W 6963 02720 9456 +196 +119 242034 041 999 999 03
003400 2008N 05818W 6965 02731 9463 +201 +124 243053 057 059 000 03
003430 2006N 05818W 6966 02751 9500 +187 +130 250072 080 067 000 03
003500 2004N 05818W 6968 02779 9536 +184 +118 253092 097 073 000 00
003530 2002N 05818W 6956 02827 9567 +191 +088 255093 095 073 000 00

Times still incorrect.

Code: Select all

TIME         Latit.    Long.    Plane. Prs.   Height   Pressure   Temp   Dew Pt.   Dir, 30s mean   FL    SFMR   Precip   QC
2:60:00z   20.39°N   58.17°W   699.1 hPa   2795m   965.6 hPa   11.1°C   11.1°C   96° @ 122kt   126kt   98kt   42mm   OK
2:63:30z   20.37°N   58.18°W   695.6 hPa   2801m   960.1 hPa   11.0°C   11.0°C   99° @ 123kt   127kt   97kt   46mm   OK
2:70:00z   20.35°N   58.18°W   689.9 hPa   2835m   948.7 hPa   11.8°C   11.8°C   106° @ 108kt   117kt   108kt   18mm   OK
2:73:30z   20.33°N   58.19°W   691.2 hPa   2802m   943.2 hPa   13.5°C   13.5°C   100° @ 083kt   88kt   105kt   14mm   OK
2:80:00z   20.31°N   58.19°W   695.3 hPa   2727m   940.0 hPa   15.2°C   15.2°C   94° @ 071kt   79kt   98kt   7mm   OK
2:83:30z   20.29°N   58.19°W   696.7 hPa   2698m   939.0 hPa   17.4°C   17.4°C   92° @ 055kt   61kt   69kt   1mm   Suspect
2:90:00z   20.27°N   58.19°W   696.6 hPa   2692m   944.0 hPa   18.7°C   11.5°C   98° @ 032kt   37kt   36kt   1mm   Suspect
2:93:30z   20.25°N   58.19°W   696.9 hPa   2686m   943.5 hPa   19.4°C   8.1°C   109° @ 018kt   22kt   999kt   999mm   Suspect
3:00:00z   20.23°N   58.20°W   696.6 hPa   2693m   943.5 hPa   19.8°C   6.0°C   98° @ 011kt   13kt   16kt   0mm   Suspect
3:03:30z   20.21°N   58.21°W   697.0 hPa   2689m   943.3 hPa   20.2°C   5.5°C   70° @ 007kt   10kt   12kt   0mm   Suspect
3:10:00z   20.19°N   58.20°W   696.4 hPa   2699m   945.1 hPa   18.6°C   6.1°C   120° @ 005kt   7kt   999kt   999mm   Suspect
3:13:30z   20.18°N   58.18°W   696.8 hPa   2695m   944.7 hPa   19.2°C   5.9°C   172° @ 010kt   12kt   8kt   0mm   Suspect
3:20:00z   20.16°N   58.18°W   696.8 hPa   2698m   945.3 hPa   18.7°C   6.5°C   183° @ 013kt   14kt   6kt   0mm   Suspect
3:23:30z   20.14°N   58.18°W   696.0 hPa   2709m   946.1 hPa   18.0°C   8.0°C   218° @ 015kt   16kt   6kt   0mm   OK
3:30:00z   20.12°N   58.18°W   696.3 hPa   2711m   945.5 hPa   18.9°C   10.1°C   230° @ 023kt   27kt   999kt   999mm   Suspect
3:33:30z   20.10°N   58.18°W   696.3 hPa   2720m   945.6 hPa   19.6°C   11.9°C   242° @ 034kt   41kt   999kt   999mm   Suspect
3:40:00z   20.08°N   58.18°W   696.5 hPa   2731m   946.3 hPa   20.1°C   12.4°C   243° @ 053kt   57kt   59kt   0mm   Suspect
3:43:30z   20.06°N   58.18°W   696.6 hPa   2751m   950.0 hPa   18.7°C   13.0°C   250° @ 072kt   80kt   67kt   0mm   Suspect
3:50:00z   20.04°N   58.18°W   696.8 hPa   2779m   953.6 hPa   18.4°C   11.8°C   253° @ 092kt   97kt   73kt   0mm   OK
3:53:30z   20.02°N   58.18°W   695.6 hPa   2827m   956.7 hPa   19.1°C   8.8°C   255° @ 093kt   95kt   73kt   0mm   OK


UZNT13 KWBC 200039
XXAA 70007 99205 70583 07808 99952 25200 ///// 00933 ///// /////
92257 24201 06141 85997 21200 08626 70671 146// 09581 88999 77999
31313 09608 80027
61616 NOAA3 WX03A BILL4 OB 15
62626 REL 2054N05831W 002745 SPG 2053N05843W 003138 WL150 04633 0
93 DLM WND 08108 950695 MBL WND 05635 LST WND 018=
XXBB 70008 99205 70583 07808 00952 25200 11947 25000 22751 17600
33721 16401 44694 140//
21212 00952 ///// 11950 04627 22949 04636 33945 04631 44939 05132
55930 05143 66917 06642 77904 06630 88893 07136 99886 07630 11877
07636 22867 07629 33857 08131 44837 09140 55829 09620 66782 10107
77767 09586 88694 09581
31313 09608 80027
61616 NOAA3 WX03A BILL4 OB 15
62626 REL 2054N05831W 002745 SPG 2053N05843W 003138 WL150 04633 0
93 DLM WND 08108 950695 MBL WND 05635 LST WND 018=

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

Pressure is down to 939mb now

002830 2029N 05819W 6967 02698 9390 +174 +174 092055 061 069 001 03

[KWT]

Pretty impressive that its still dropping away, I wonder just how long it could go, I suppos ein theory it could go into the 910s if the core can remain strong given we've Isabel do it at a similar latitude but more then likely Bill won't go that low, not with the convection still not that great in the N.Quad relative to how strong it is.

[cheezyWXguy]

Pretty impressive that its still dropping away, I wonder just how long it could go, I suppos ein theory it could go into the 910s if the core can remain strong given we've Isabel do it at a similar latitude but more then likely Bill won't go that low, not with the convection still not that great in the N.Quad relative to how strong it is.

Huh? The N quad is the only one with reds around the eye. If anywhere needs more convection, its the eastern quad.

[Normandy]

Thats a pretty substantial fall over the course of the day. Its improving on IR as well, looks like it could go for Cat 5 (crosses fingers). Luckily itll weaken if it gets to the NE US/Canada.

[RattleMan]

URNT15 KWBC 200045
NOAA3 WX03A BILL4 HDOB 26 20090820
003600 2000N 05818W 6960 02847 9602 +182 +090 252089 091 070 000 03
003630 1959N 05818W 6988 02831 9625 +183 +078 250089 090 069 000 00
003700 1957N 05818W 6978 02865 9658 +169 +087 248085 086 067 000 03
003730 1955N 05818W 6969 02893 9684 +161 +096 249083 085 064 000 03
003800 1954N 05818W 6962 02919 9718 +143 +105 248078 078 062 000 03
003830 1952N 05818W 6955 02940 9739 +138 +110 251077 078 059 000 03
003900 1950N 05818W 6973 02933 9757 +136 +115 251073 074 058 000 03
003930 1948N 05818W 6945 02982 9777 +130 +115 248071 072 055 000 00
004000 1946N 05818W 6964 02969 9795 +126 +117 248071 074 055 001 03
004030 1945N 05819W 6968 02974 9812 +120 +117 245070 072 053 004 00
004100 1943N 05819W 6970 02981 9824 +119 +115 245070 072 053 003 00
004130 1941N 05819W 6965 02996 9837 +115 +113 244069 071 050 003 03
004200 1939N 05819W 6965 03007 9848 +114 +114 241064 066 050 002 03
004230 1938N 05819W 6966 03013 9858 +114 +114 244063 064 047 001 03
004300 1936N 05819W 6966 03018 9865 +113 +113 245063 063 047 002 03
004330 1934N 05819W 6968 03021 9875 +111 +110 249063 063 047 000 03
004400 1932N 05819W 6965 03032 9880 +115 +100 252062 063 043 001 03
004430 1931N 05819W 6965 03039 9892 +110 +105 252060 062 043 000 03
004500 1929N 05819W 6966 03044 9900 +110 +101 251060 061 999 999 03
004530 1927N 05819W 6966 03051 9908 +110 +088 252059 059 043 001 03

Times incorrect until 0100z.

Code: Select all

TIME         Latit.    Long.    Plane. Prs.   Height   Pressure   Temp   Dew Pt.   Dir, 30s mean   FL    SFMR   Precip   QC
3:60:00z   20.00°N   58.18°W   696.0 hPa   2847m   960.2 hPa   18.2°C   9.0°C   252° @ 089kt   91kt   70kt   0mm   Suspect
3:63:30z   19.59°N   58.18°W   698.8 hPa   2831m   962.5 hPa   18.3°C   7.8°C   250° @ 089kt   90kt   69kt   0mm   OK
3:70:00z   19.57°N   58.18°W   697.8 hPa   2865m   965.8 hPa   16.9°C   8.7°C   248° @ 085kt   86kt   67kt   0mm   Suspect
3:73:30z   19.55°N   58.18°W   696.9 hPa   2893m   968.4 hPa   16.1°C   9.6°C   249° @ 083kt   85kt   64kt   0mm   Suspect
3:80:00z   19.54°N   58.18°W   696.2 hPa   2919m   971.8 hPa   14.3°C   10.5°C   248° @ 078kt   78kt   62kt   0mm   Suspect
3:83:30z   19.52°N   58.18°W   695.5 hPa   2940m   973.9 hPa   13.8°C   11.0°C   251° @ 077kt   78kt   59kt   0mm   Suspect
3:90:00z   19.50°N   58.18°W   697.3 hPa   2933m   975.7 hPa   13.6°C   11.5°C   251° @ 073kt   74kt   58kt   0mm   Suspect
3:93:30z   19.48°N   58.18°W   694.5 hPa   2982m   977.7 hPa   13.0°C   11.5°C   248° @ 071kt   72kt   55kt   0mm   OK
4:00:00z   19.46°N   58.18°W   696.4 hPa   2969m   979.5 hPa   12.6°C   11.7°C   248° @ 071kt   74kt   55kt   1mm   Suspect
4:03:30z   19.45°N   58.19°W   696.8 hPa   2974m   981.2 hPa   12.0°C   11.7°C   245° @ 070kt   72kt   53kt   4mm   OK
4:10:00z   19.43°N   58.19°W   697.0 hPa   2981m   982.4 hPa   11.9°C   11.5°C   245° @ 070kt   72kt   53kt   3mm   OK
4:13:30z   19.41°N   58.19°W   696.5 hPa   2996m   983.7 hPa   11.5°C   11.3°C   244° @ 069kt   71kt   50kt   3mm   Suspect
4:20:00z   19.39°N   58.19°W   696.5 hPa   3007m   984.8 hPa   11.4°C   11.4°C   241° @ 064kt   66kt   50kt   2mm   Suspect
4:23:30z   19.38°N   58.19°W   696.6 hPa   3013m   985.8 hPa   11.4°C   11.4°C   244° @ 063kt   64kt   47kt   1mm   Suspect
4:30:00z   19.36°N   58.19°W   696.6 hPa   3018m   986.5 hPa   11.3°C   11.3°C   245° @ 063kt   63kt   47kt   2mm   Suspect
4:33:30z   19.34°N   58.19°W   696.8 hPa   3021m   987.5 hPa   11.1°C   11.0°C   249° @ 063kt   63kt   47kt   0mm   Suspect
4:40:00z   19.32°N   58.19°W   696.5 hPa   3032m   988.0 hPa   11.5°C   10.0°C   252° @ 062kt   63kt   43kt   1mm   Suspect
4:43:30z   19.31°N   58.19°W   696.5 hPa   3039m   989.2 hPa   11.0°C   10.5°C   252° @ 060kt   62kt   43kt   0mm   Suspect
4:50:00z   19.29°N   58.19°W   696.6 hPa   3044m   990.0 hPa   11.0°C   10.1°C   251° @ 060kt   61kt   999kt   999mm   Suspect
4:53:30z   19.27°N   58.19°W   696.6 hPa   3051m   990.8 hPa   11.0°C   8.8°C   252° @ 059kt   59kt   43kt   1mm   Suspect


UZNT13 KWBC 200052
XXAA 70011 99155 70582 04258 99009 28039 20511 00081 27430 20512
92768 22435 20013 85501 20066 21513 70145 10463 21014 50587 04574
23018 40759 15578 23014 30970 29571 26005 25097 39772 34507 20246
51556 08004 15427 657// 14508 88999 77999
31313 09608 80034
61616 NOAA9 WX03A BILL4 OB 17
62626 SPL 1558N05815W 0049 MBL WND 20512 AEV 20801 DLM WND 21508
009146 WL150 20512 086 REL 1555N05818W 003420 SPG 1558N05815W 004
909 =
XXBB 70018 99155 70582 04258 00009 28039 11963 24210 22952 24043
33892 20438 44850 20066 55812 17660 66775 15461 77767 15265 88744
13060 99719 11669 11710 10658 22683 10282 33676 09668 44602 04880
55589 03268 66545 01766 77532 02381 88469 07769 99451 09384 11373
19380 22356 21756 33350 22159 44345 22357 55340 22763 66335 23560
77326 24964 88312 27359 99298 29971 11294 30765 22288 31940 33284
32531 44267 36172 55248 40171 66200 51556 77195 52957
21212 00009 20511 11899 19513 22850 21513 33751 21517 44713 23013
55695 20515 66628 20516 77616 19020 88590 20518 99560 19521 11539
20517 22519 24515 33497 23018 44481 24016 55458 21514 66409 25014
77381 21510 88205 08503 99177 04510
31313 09608 80034
61616 NOAA9 WX03A BILL4 OB 17
62626 SPL 1558N05815W 0049 MBL WND 20512 AEV 20801 DLM WND 21508
009146 WL150 20512 086 REL 1555N05818W 003420 SPG 1558N05815W 004
909 =

[KWT]

Pretty impressive that its still dropping away, I wonder just how long it could go, I suppos ein theory it could go into the 910s if the core can remain strong given we've Isabel do it at a similar latitude but more then likely Bill won't go that low, not with the convection still not that great in the N.Quad relative to how strong it is.

Huh? The N quad is the only one with reds around the eye. If anywhere needs more convection, its the eastern quad.

The NW Quadrant seems to have flared just recently, goes to show you should look before you comment lol!
Still who knows, its got very impressive conditions with it so top end 4 seems quite possible, I'm somewhat doubtful of a 5 however but conditions aloft are probably good enough if it does decide to develop a bigger region of deeper convection.

[cheezyWXguy]

Thats a pretty substantial fall over the course of the day. Its improving on IR as well, looks like it could go for Cat 5 (crosses fingers). Luckily itll weaken if it gets to the NE US/Canada.

I wouldnt count on it hitting Cat5. Probably the highest it could go at this point is 145-150 mph. I dont see how it could get any stronger, seeing as convection isnt extremely deep and the eye has been contracting so much that an ewrc is practically imminent within the next 36 hours.

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

Thats a pretty substantial fall over the course of the day. Its improving on IR as well, looks like it could go for Cat 5 (crosses fingers). Luckily itll weaken if it gets to the NE US/Canada.

I wouldnt count on it hitting Cat5. Probably the highest it could go at this point is 145-150 mph. I dont see how it could get any stronger, seeing as convection isnt extremely deep and the eye has been contracting so much that an ewrc is practically imminent within the next 36 hours.

Could still be a while before a Eyewall replacement starts. The Eyewall is 30miles wide and its lost its outer wind maxima it had earlier today.

[CrazyC83]

AL, 03, 2009082000, , BEST, 0, 202N, 582W, 115, 945, HU, 34, NEQ

[KWT]

Well on the other side we have seen hurricanes be able to hit category-5 in this location before, Isabel was only a shade north when it went on its category-5 run, plus upper conditions don't get much more favorable.

[The Eye Wall]

It's almost not even Cat 4 based on observation through my eyes. The structure is decent, but convection not terribly deep. I think 135 mph is prudent. Not to mention, even though we're seeing pressure falls, it takes a bit for those winds to correspond to the observed pressure. Sometimes, they don't react at all.

[Normandy]

^ It is a Cat 4, there were measured Category 4 winds in the northern eyewall at the surface.

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

It's almost not even Cat 4. The structure is decent, but convection not terribly deep. I think 135 mph is prudent.

You can't go by looks alone. We have aircraft reports to suggest about 140mph. If you have Aircraft data you go with that since thats first hand information. If you don't have aircraft data then you go based on Dvorak and presentation but ONLY if theres no aircraft data available.

[KWT]

The thing is Eyewall recon dropsonde's confirm that this is a ceertain Category-4, probably 120kts though I suppose a case could even be made for 125kts.

[bzukajo]

When is the next run?