Global model runs discussion

[blp]

EURO picking up on some activity next week on two runs. Could be the wave exiting Africa now.

00Z 168hr


12Z 192hr Yesterday

[cycloneye]

The 00z CMC picks up the same wave ECMWF has,but not in a strong way.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[Dean4Storms]

06z GFS also closes off a low with that wave but keeps it very weak.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

[Meso]

[Scorpion]

Hehe that already looks like a hurricane coming of Africa

[cycloneye]

12z GFS has a trio of lows in the Atlantic,but nothing strong like we were watching when this model began to develop mthe wave that gave birth to Bill.



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[KWT]

The 12z does develop a few regions but none appear to be really a threat at all to land thankfully. As you've noticed it does eventually develop a Hybrid system in the West Atlantic in the 5-7 day period. I guess thats the same region ECM develops.

[Macrocane]

Yes, I agree that it seems that the Euro could be developing the hybrid system that the GFS is developing too. The Euro has been consistent with that system, I think it's very possible that we will see a subtropical (and may transition to tropical) system in a week or so.

[cycloneye]

12z CMC is quite agressive with a wave.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[cycloneye]

GFS continues to show plenty of activity in the next couple of weeks,but Caribbean is spared because subtropical ridge is weak due to negative NAO (North Atlantic Occillation)

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[KWT]

Yeah though its rather suspect how the first wave moves due west then suddenly at 40W exactly due north and dies, several runs have shown that now and it makes little sense to be that extreme!

Still quite a few runs have shown some decent development recently.

[Frank2]

Though as said the ridge is very weak through that period, so likely that anything that does form would also recurve:

http://weather.unisys.com/gfsx/loop/gfsx_500p_loop.html

P.S. It's possible that we might have a "perfect season" after all, at least as far as not having any landfalling hurricanes, though we have a long way to go before that is known for sure...

[Dean4Storms]

Hint of a wave/low trying to close off near the Florida Straits late next week in this GFS run.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

[srainhoutx]

Here is a snipet from the HPC this morning...

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
847 AM EDT FRI AUG 21 2009

VALID 12Z TUE AUG 25 2009 - 12Z FRI AUG 28 2009


MONSOONAL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND SRN
ROCKIES AT LEAST THRU MID WEEK WHILE SOME LIGHTER SHOWERS WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT DROPPING SWD THRU THE PLAINS
TUES-THURS. POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONGER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THE
CENTRAL PLAINS MID WEEK ALONG THE SRN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES.
POSSIBLE GULF COAST SHOWERS AND STRONGER COMNVECTION MAY BE
TRIGGERED BY A POTENTIAL RESIDUAL MID LEVEL LOW THAT MAY BREAK OFF
FROM THE MEAN ERN CONUS TROF WED-THURS. EWD A TROPICAL WAVE
CURRENTLY SW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MAY APPROACH THE BAHAMAS
THURSDAY WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLY REACHING FL BY FRIDAY. CMC CONTS TO
BE VERY AGRESSIVE WITH THIS WAVE WHILE ECMWF ENSEMBLES SHOW A
STRONG CLUSTERING OF LOWS IN THIS REGION LATE WEEK. CHI VERTICAL
VELOCITY POTENTIAL CHARTS STRONGLY FAVOR THE TROPICAL EPAC FOR
DEVELOPMENT THIS PERIOD WITH SOME LESSER BUT STILL FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS OVER THE CARRIBEAN/GLFMEX AND BAHAMAS REGION.
JAMES/ROSENSTEIN

[Blown Away]

This wave will have to fly across the Atlantic to get to SFL by next Friday.

[KWT]

Though as said the ridge is very weak through that period, so likely that anything that does form would also recurve:

http://weather.unisys.com/gfsx/loop/gfsx_500p_loop.html

P.S. It's possible that we might have a "perfect season" after all, at least as far as not having any landfalling hurricanes, though we have a long way to go before that is known for sure...

Bill could yet ruin that idea, think its quite likely that will hit Nova scotia as a hurricane.

Anyway models do seem to be suggesting a wave (this one or another one?) develops near 60W and then slowly heads westwards. The synoptic pattern does suggest possible recurve but way to soon to make that call!

[gatorcane]

The 12Z CMC is developing something quite rapidly in the SE Bahamas curves it WNW then NW towards SE FL and Northern Bahamas.

If it is correct development begins in about 108 hours from now. What you see below is 144 hours from now.

[cycloneye]

12z NOGAPS shows something in the Western Caribbean.Maybe that is the Caribbean cruiser that our friend Ivanhater talked about.

[KWT]

Very interesting set-up, I think it may be time to make a new thread about this system as its not the waves we are tracking, seems quite a tricky little forecast to me, I guess its from the ITCZ east of the islands.

UKMO also suggests a SE Florida threat.

The big difference seems to come from whether or not it gains much latitude in the enxt 48hrs.

[gatorcane]

Very interesting set-up, I think it may be time to make a new thread about this system as its not the waves we are tracking, seems quite a tricky little forecast to me, I guess its from the ITCZ east of the islands.

UKMO also suggests a SE Florida threat.

The big difference seems to come from whether or not it gains much latitude in the enxt 48hrs.

KWT, do you have a link to the UKMET? This is the one I have bookmarked:
http://weather.uwyo.edu/models/fcst/ukmet.html