ATL: TROPICAL STORM BILL (03L)

[HURAKAN]

969
URNT15 KNHC 211751
AF300 0903A BILL HDOB 27 20090821
174200 3019N 06630W 6963 03130 0051 +074 +039 108060 067 051 009 00
174230 3019N 06633W 6959 03141 0030 +093 +039 115070 072 052 001 00
174300 3019N 06636W 6970 03130 0032 +090 +040 114067 070 052 000 03
174330 3020N 06639W 6965 03131 0032 +091 +045 116069 070 052 003 00
174400 3020N 06642W 6970 03128 0028 +094 +050 114067 069 053 000 00
174430 3020N 06645W 6968 03131 0025 +095 +054 117069 070 053 001 00
174500 3021N 06648W 6966 03128 0028 +090 +059 118070 071 051 003 00
174530 3021N 06651W 6962 03137 0032 +087 +064 114067 068 051 002 00
174600 3021N 06654W 6971 03123 0025 +094 +067 111065 066 051 001 00
174630 3022N 06657W 6962 03139 0028 +091 +070 105072 074 052 005 00
174700 3022N 06700W 6968 03129 0027 +093 +072 105071 072 052 003 00
174730 3022N 06703W 6963 03137 0028 +093 +073 106071 072 049 002 00
174800 3023N 06706W 6972 03125 0072 +056 +056 107072 073 049 005 01
174830 3023N 06709W 6962 03137 0076 +056 +056 102069 070 049 007 00
174900 3023N 06712W 6967 03133 0074 +060 +060 090062 067 050 005 00
174930 3024N 06715W 6966 03139 0068 +065 +056 089056 058 050 005 00
175000 3024N 06718W 6970 03129 0064 +068 +051 088057 062 051 004 00
175030 3024N 06721W 6972 03135 0058 +075 +046 097057 060 053 002 00
175100 3025N 06724W 6966 03140 0043 +088 +043 099056 057 054 000 03
175130 3025N 06727W 6967 03141 0040 +092 +043 098058 059 053 000 03
$$
;

[HURAKAN]

[KWT]

Eye seems more defined but convection is steadily becoming shallower, esp on te northern quadrants, as you'd expect as the system moves away from the warmest waters.

[HurricaneHunter914]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html

Bill's been way right of the forecast track for some time now. Spelling trouble for Bermuda, but could this mean it could recurve early?

[HURAKAN]

000
URNT15 KNHC 211801
AF300 0903A BILL HDOB 28 20090821
175200 3025N 06730W 6969 03136 0042 +092 +047 097059 060 047 002 00
175230 3026N 06733W 6967 03141 0047 +087 +051 095058 059 046 003 00
175300 3026N 06736W 6967 03145 0060 +077 +055 096058 059 045 004 00
175330 3026N 06739W 6968 03144 0066 +075 +057 094058 059 045 005 00
175400 3027N 06742W 6968 03146 0081 +065 +056 091062 064 045 006 00
175430 3027N 06745W 6967 03148 0072 +072 +053 094059 060 046 005 00
175500 3027N 06747W 6967 03150 0074 +073 +049 090057 058 046 005 00
175530 3028N 06750W 6969 03145 0083 +066 +046 088053 055 046 005 00
175600 3028N 06753W 6964 03155 0105 +050 +043 089050 050 045 008 00
175630 3028N 06756W 6968 03149 0100 +056 +040 089050 052 045 006 00
175700 3028N 06759W 6967 03154 0097 +059 +038 081051 052 044 006 00
175730 3029N 06802W 6967 03152 0111 +048 +036 079049 052 043 007 00
175800 3029N 06805W 6969 03153 0110 +052 +035 074046 047 043 007 00
175830 3029N 06807W 6968 03154 0109 +053 +035 074046 047 043 007 00
175900 3030N 06810W 6966 03157 0093 +066 +034 069048 049 042 006 00
175930 3030N 06813W 6968 03158 0097 +064 +033 064045 046 040 005 00
180000 3030N 06815W 6966 03161 0086 +074 +034 062042 043 038 003 00
180030 3030N 06818W 6966 03161 0092 +070 +033 062044 044 038 002 00
180100 3031N 06821W 6969 03159 0085 +076 +032 058043 044 036 003 00
180130 3031N 06824W 6967 03162 0078 +082 +033 054041 041 037 005 00
$$
;

[HURAKAN]

346
URNT15 KNHC 211811
AF300 0903A BILL HDOB 29 20090821
180200 3031N 06826W 6967 03159 0083 +080 +036 055042 042 037 004 00
180230 3032N 06829W 6968 03162 0083 +081 +038 056039 040 037 003 00
180300 3032N 06832W 6968 03160 0079 +082 +041 054033 035 039 001 00
180330 3032N 06834W 6969 03161 0085 +076 +044 053033 034 038 003 00
180400 3032N 06837W 6965 03168 0090 +073 +046 049035 036 038 003 00
180430 3033N 06839W 6967 03165 0085 +077 +047 046035 037 038 002 00
180500 3033N 06842W 6967 03166 0084 +080 +048 047034 034 037 002 00
180530 3033N 06845W 6967 03164 0084 +080 +048 048035 036 037 002 00
180600 3033N 06847W 6966 03167 0087 +080 +049 048037 037 037 001 00
180630 3034N 06850W 6967 03166 0087 +076 +052 048038 038 036 002 00
180700 3034N 06852W 6966 03168 0087 +077 +057 050037 038 037 000 00
180730 3034N 06855W 6967 03168 0089 +079 +054 050038 038 037 001 00
180800 3034N 06858W 6968 03168 0092 +078 +056 049037 037 036 001 00
180830 3035N 06900W 6967 03168 0091 +078 +055 048036 037 037 000 00
180900 3035N 06903W 6966 03178 0094 +079 +058 047034 035 999 999 03
180930 3033N 06904W 6966 03177 0097 +075 +060 048032 033 999 999 03
181000 3031N 06903W 6967 03173 0094 +076 +061 050030 031 999 999 03
181030 3030N 06901W 6963 03173 0086 +077 +062 046029 030 037 000 03
181100 3029N 06859W 6967 03167 0086 +075 +063 046030 030 037 000 00
181130 3028N 06857W 6967 03166 0085 +075 +064 046030 031 038 000 03
$$
;

[HURAKAN]

430
URNT15 KNHC 211822
AF300 0903A BILL HDOB 30 20090821
181200 3026N 06856W 6966 03165 0085 +075 +065 041030 031 038 001 00
181230 3025N 06854W 6969 03161 0081 +078 +064 043030 031 037 001 00
181300 3023N 06852W 6969 03161 0079 +079 +064 041029 029 038 001 00
181330 3022N 06851W 6969 03160 0079 +079 +064 043031 033 037 002 00
181400 3020N 06849W 6967 03159 0077 +080 +064 043033 034 039 001 00
181430 3019N 06847W 6967 03159 0075 +078 +064 040031 032 038 003 00
181500 3017N 06845W 6966 03155 0073 +078 +065 040029 031 039 003 00
181530 3016N 06844W 6968 03155 0066 +085 +064 039030 031 039 002 00
181600 3015N 06842W 6976 03149 0063 +089 +063 042032 033 038 001 00
181630 3013N 06841W 6967 03155 0063 +085 +064 043033 034 037 003 00
181700 3012N 06839W 6965 03154 0065 +080 +065 043037 039 039 004 00
181730 3011N 06838W 6967 03149 0062 +082 +064 045041 041 042 004 00
181800 3010N 06836W 6966 03152 0062 +081 +063 045041 042 043 004 03
181830 3008N 06835W 6968 03143 0068 +074 +061 048037 038 042 006 00
181900 3007N 06833W 6967 03145 0069 +073 +058 049036 037 042 006 00
181930 3006N 06832W 6967 03143 0073 +069 +054 048036 038 042 007 00
182000 3005N 06831W 6967 03143 0077 +065 +049 050039 040 043 008 00
182030 3004N 06829W 6967 03144 0078 +063 +046 050040 042 043 008 00
182100 3002N 06828W 6969 03137 0073 +065 +042 049042 044 043 008 00
182130 3001N 06826W 6966 03141 0076 +063 +040 057036 038 044 007 00
$$
;



Going for another pass

[wxman57]

The surface circulation will be near the SW corner of the eye (satellite parallax), so I estimate that it may be only 0.1 to 0.2 right of the track, currently. Hurricanes are always wobbling around. Could be right on the track in the next few hours. Let's see if it's a long-term trend.

[magnusson_r]

Hi all!

re: Hurricane Bill's potential threat to Halifax (or Nova Scotia more generally)

A couple of points:

1) The predicted path has not really altered much in the past 36 hours or so, in that it still shows Bill staying *at least* 150km offshore from NS;

2) I see where it was just downgraded to a Cat 2 -- And it hasn't even reached Bermuda yet!! It's falling apart in a hurry. It will lose H status long before it reaches Canadian waters.

NS will likely see some heavy rain and brisk winds, but other than that there appears to be no real threat to the province at all.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Thunder44]

Looking at the sterring layers here, as of 12zUTC today, it appears that mid-level ridging to the north of Bill as has erroded away and the path to recurve out is opening up. Still some upper-level ridging left, but it has it get stronger than it is now to respond to it:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... oom=&time=

850mb to 300mb map:

the ridge or bill?

Bill, as in maintaining a NW movement.

[HURAKAN]

319
URNT15 KNHC 211831
AF300 0903A BILL HDOB 31 20090821
182200 3000N 06825W 6968 03136 0055 +078 +038 066036 036 042 006 00
182230 2959N 06824W 6967 03135 0052 +078 +037 065033 034 043 004 00
182300 2958N 06822W 6967 03136 0054 +075 +037 062034 034 042 006 00
182330 2957N 06821W 6969 03127 0057 +070 +036 057033 034 042 006 00
182400 2955N 06819W 6965 03128 0042 +081 +036 060036 040 043 004 00
182430 2954N 06818W 6967 03126 0037 +084 +036 058042 044 044 004 00
182500 2953N 06817W 6969 03124 0027 +090 +037 063043 043 043 003 00
182530 2952N 06815W 6964 03125 0021 +092 +038 067047 048 044 003 00
182600 2951N 06814W 6966 03118 0016 +093 +042 065050 051 044 004 00
182630 2950N 06813W 6963 03124 0034 +077 +045 062049 051 045 005 00
182700 2949N 06811W 6974 03104 0019 +086 +047 062048 049 046 006 00
182730 2947N 06810W 6964 03114 0015 +087 +048 063044 047 046 005 00
182800 2946N 06809W 6967 03111 0014 +086 +047 059043 044 046 005 00
182830 2945N 06807W 6963 03115 0011 +087 +048 057047 048 046 005 00
182900 2944N 06806W 6971 03104 0028 +072 +047 061049 050 046 008 00
182930 2943N 06805W 6971 03102 0021 +074 +047 067047 048 046 006 00
183000 2942N 06803W 6965 03106 0001 +090 +047 066046 046 045 004 00
183030 2941N 06802W 6968 03099 9998 +090 +047 065050 051 046 004 00
183100 2939N 06801W 6971 03093 9995 +090 +047 064052 053 047 003 00
183130 2938N 06759W 6964 03097 9987 +094 +048 061053 053 047 004 03
$$
;

[artist]

Looking at the sterring layers here, as of 12zUTC today, it appears that mid-level ridging to the north of Bill as has erroded away and the path to recurve out is opening up. Still some upper-level ridging left, but it has it get stronger than it is now to respond to it:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... oom=&time=

850mb to 300mb map:

the ridge or bill?

Bill, as in maintaining a NW movement.

thanks Thunder. So if I am understanding you correctly (which I might not) if Bill loses intensity he might not follow that same path as easily?

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

082
URNT15 KNHC 211841
AF300 0903A BILL HDOB 32 20090821
183200 2937N 06758W 6963 03098 9978 +099 +049 059053 055 049 004 00
183230 2936N 06757W 6967 03090 9971 +101 +052 056056 058 050 006 00
183300 2935N 06755W 6967 03083 9975 +095 +055 055058 060 052 007 00
183330 2934N 06754W 6970 03081 9989 +080 +058 058056 061 054 007 00
183400 2933N 06753W 6963 03085 9968 +094 +058 063063 065 052 006 00
183430 2932N 06752W 6967 03075 9990 +072 +056 058062 063 052 008 00
183500 2930N 06750W 6968 03068 9983 +074 +054 054060 062 054 008 00
183530 2929N 06749W 6966 03069 9978 +074 +053 044062 063 054 016 00
183600 2928N 06747W 6964 03065 9972 +074 +053 041058 061 058 017 00
183630 2927N 06746W 6967 03054 9968 +073 +053 049058 063 058 018 00
183700 2926N 06745W 6963 03054 9959 +075 +054 055058 062 057 017 00
183730 2925N 06743W 6973 03040 9963 +069 +054 058065 067 056 013 00
183800 2923N 06742W 6967 03044 9942 +083 +053 055061 062 054 011 00
183830 2922N 06741W 6972 03037 9931 +090 +053 050058 059 054 009 00
183900 2921N 06739W 6969 03037 9930 +088 +054 050060 060 052 006 00
183930 2920N 06738W 6973 03029 9919 +093 +054 049062 063 051 008 00
184000 2919N 06737W 6962 03034 9911 +095 +054 048062 063 051 012 00
184030 2918N 06735W 6963 03030 9920 +080 +055 052060 063 054 017 00
184100 2916N 06734W 6973 03008 9912 +079 +056 055060 062 055 016 00
184130 2915N 06733W 6978 02995 9907 +079 +057 046056 059 053 014 00
$$
;

[KWT]

Bill has weakened but I don't think its falling apart, still its weakened a little sooner then the models had predicted it has to be said.

[HURAKAN]

905
URNT15 KNHC 211851
AF300 0903A BILL HDOB 33 20090821
184200 2914N 06731W 6962 03006 9900 +078 +057 042059 060 053 011 30
184230 2913N 06730W 6966 02999 9884 +087 +057 041056 057 055 009 00
184300 2912N 06729W 6965 02990 9858 +102 +058 037054 056 056 008 00
184330 2910N 06727W 6970 02981 9848 +106 +058 046057 060 059 009 00
184400 2909N 06726W 6965 02978 9834 +108 +060 046062 064 061 016 03
184430 2908N 06725W 6954 02978 9839 +094 +061 049059 061 061 013 00
184500 2907N 06723W 6971 02949 9827 +096 +063 040056 057 062 009 00
184530 2906N 06722W 6966 02948 9798 +113 +066 031055 056 062 007 00
184600 2905N 06720W 6971 02934 9772 +128 +068 029057 059 062 005 00
184630 2903N 06719W 6970 02929 9758 +133 +070 028054 054 063 004 00
184700 2902N 06717W 6966 02926 9750 +132 +074 026055 056 063 003 03
184730 2901N 06716W 6967 02909 9735 +130 +079 024057 058 061 004 03
184800 2900N 06714W 6969 02896 9723 +132 +085 021059 060 062 004 00
184830 2859N 06712W 6969 02886 9709 +131 +091 018061 062 059 005 00
184900 2858N 06711W 6965 02878 9700 +126 +096 016062 063 059 005 00
184930 2857N 06709W 6969 02859 9682 +128 +099 016058 060 058 005 00
185000 2856N 06707W 6966 02843 9659 +132 +099 014058 059 059 004 00
185030 2854N 06706W 6963 02831 9631 +143 +099 008059 060 057 006 00
185100 2853N 06704W 6969 02805 9609 +147 +099 005059 060 058 003 00
185130 2852N 06702W 6964 02793 9588 +147 +101 356053 057 057 003 00
$$
;

[HURAKAN]

[tolakram]

Looking at all the steering charts

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... oom=&time=

Seems to me strength doesn't matter much at the moment.

Can someone confirm if I'm reading these correctly?

[HURAKAN]

549
URNT15 KNHC 211901
AF300 0903A BILL HDOB 34 20090821
185200 2851N 06700W 6969 02774 9572 +148 +105 350042 045 053 004 03
185230 2851N 06658W 6967 02761 9542 +161 +107 344032 035 040 003 03
185300 2851N 06656W 6970 02741 9534 +154 +111 334020 025 030 003 03
185330 2852N 06654W 6966 02743 9534 +148 +115 330006 011 022 005 03
185400 2853N 06652W 6969 02740 9526 +153 +119 133006 010 020 004 03
185430 2854N 06651W 6970 02747 9534 +149 +123 151011 011 016 005 03
185500 2853N 06649W 6958 02751 9533 +145 +126 171013 013 023 004 03
185530 2852N 06648W 6971 02737 9536 +143 +128 191015 018 026 004 03
185600 2851N 06647W 6968 02743 9541 +141 +130 199021 023 026 003 03
185630 2850N 06645W 6968 02743 9544 +140 +131 213026 027 027 004 03
185700 2848N 06644W 6963 02754 9544 +142 +131 223031 035 999 999 03
185730 2847N 06643W 6969 02752 9547 +146 +131 225040 044 040 003 03
185800 2846N 06641W 6966 02767 9551 +152 +132 227053 059 053 003 00
185830 2845N 06640W 6967 02778 9566 +149 +132 228067 071 065 004 00
185900 2843N 06639W 6968 02791 9587 +146 +133 230080 084 070 002 00
185930 2842N 06637W 6966 02815 9611 +142 +134 229084 086 068 003 00
190000 2841N 06636W 6973 02821 9636 +134 +133 228088 091 066 002 00
190030 2840N 06635W 6970 02841 9658 +132 +131 229087 089 065 004 00
190100 2839N 06634W 6963 02865 9674 +135 +128 229085 086 066 004 00
190130 2838N 06632W 6961 02886 9695 +129 +125 227085 086 063 004 00
$$
;

953 mb