New large wave behind Bill east of Lesser Antilles

[ConvergenceZone]

Hmmm, very interesting regarding the CMC...

[KWT]

Models seem to be pretty keen on lifting this one out quite quickly in the next 2-3 days, probably in response to a developing low coming out of Canada (I'm guessing the same feature that lifts out Bill?) then heads westwards as the high pressure builds back
somewhat according to then CMC.

Looks like a US threat on the CMC...

[ConvergenceZone]

I enjoy tracking storms more when we don't know where they are going to go, as opposed to knowing that they will recurve or knowing that they will hit land.....

[PTrackerLA]

It's the CMC, which has shown the gulf coast struck by a few hurricanes so far this year. It's not to be taken seriously.

[cycloneye]

Code Yellow

ABNT20 KNHC 211742
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI AUG 21 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
BILL...LOCATED ABOUT 290 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.

A SMALL AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
HAS DEVELOPED ABOUT 525 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD ABOUT 10 TO 15 MPH AND
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[KWT]

Saying that the CMC along with the ECM actually have done a very good job with Bill and so its something to watch, its been performing better recently IMO.

Sounds like the NHC aren't that impressed with this area just yet, bet if it holds the presentation it has at the moment that will change soon enough.

[cycloneye]

Sounds like the NHC aren't that impressed with this area just yet, bet if it holds the presentation it has at the moment that will change soon enough.

At least is the first time is mentioned.Not far from invest status.

[KWT]

Very true, though I tend to find its not usually invested so to speak till we are around code orange. Still its a start and development won't be too quick yet, the models are a bit more keen on developing this system in the west Atlantic.

[srainhoutx]

Plenty of time to watch. Persistence warrants the attention of the NHC. Possibility of an Invest tomorrow morning if convection continues IMHO.

Edit: spelling lol

[cycloneye]

It has a long way to go.

[cycloneye]

From 2 PM discussion.

TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 28W/29W S OF 17N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.
THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE MAXIMUM OBSERVED
IN THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. AN INCREASE IN MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NOTED JUST AHEAD OF THE WAVE AXIS WITH SOME
CYCLONIC TURNING NEAR 12N. THIS IS CONFIRMED BY ASCAT DATA FROM
AROUND 1100 UTC AND VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN
29W-33W.

http://www.storm2k.org/weather/hw3.php? ... hwvmetric=

[Sanibel]

If such a thin, warm-topped disturbance can develop it will tell us a lot about conditions.

[KWT]

Indeed Sanibel, still we are at the time of year where any disturbances like this could develop. Both Derek and Wxman57 seem to be quite keen on this disturbance but we will see.

[CourierPR]

I see a spin there and I think this will be our next player.

[cycloneye]

It will take sometime for this to develop if it does because Bill left some cooler waters behind.

[CourierPR]

Saying that the CMC along with the ECM actually have done a very good job with Bill and so its something to watch, its been performing better recently IMO.

Sounds like the NHC aren't that impressed with this area just yet, bet if it holds the presentation it has at the moment that will change soon enough.

Avila wrote that TWO and, as we already know, he tends to be extremely conservative when it comes to forecasting development.

[wxman57]

Convection does need to deepen, but it would seem invest-worthy. Next time I see Bill Read I plan to ask him just what the procedure is for declaring an invest. It seems that there's little consistency in the declarations. When pre-Bill was code orange there was still no invest issued. However, I have noticed improvements since Bill took over.

[StormClouds63]

I guess I was premature in stating the African wave train was dying off. I just get fooled too often by those large clusters exiting the African coast. These look impressive and then most are gone within a day or so. In fact, there's another large cluster now about a day or so from moving off the west African coast.

Somewhere I remember reading (perhaps on the S2K board) that it's really very difficult for those very, very large clusters to remain intact once they move over the water.

It will also be of interest to see if the re-curve pattern persists for any system(s) following Bill. I remember in 2006 the pattern persisted with the east coast trough in place.

[Ivanhater]

It would seem if this is in no hurry to develop that far out, it will be less prone to feel any weakness, this one could be a U.S threat.

[Ivanhater]

Also, the wave behind this one looks descent, and they seem far enough apart not to impede one another.