ATL: TROPICAL STORM BILL (03L)

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#3481 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Aug 21, 2009 2:06 pm

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Re: ATL: HURRICANE BILL (Models)

#3482 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Aug 21, 2009 2:09 pm

790
WHXX01 KWBC 211829
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1829 UTC FRI AUG 21 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE BILL (AL032009) 20090821 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090821 1800 090822 0600 090822 1800 090823 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 28.6N 66.6W 31.4N 68.6W 34.7N 68.8W 38.8N 66.8W
BAMD 28.6N 66.6W 31.2N 68.5W 34.1N 69.5W 38.0N 68.5W
BAMM 28.6N 66.6W 31.1N 68.5W 34.1N 69.2W 38.1N 67.8W
LBAR 28.6N 66.6W 31.4N 67.9W 34.5N 68.3W 37.9N 67.2W
SHIP 95KTS 97KTS 101KTS 100KTS
DSHP 95KTS 97KTS 101KTS 100KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090823 1800 090824 1800 090825 1800 090826 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 42.3N 63.8W 45.8N 52.5W 46.5N 36.2W 48.7N 20.5W
BAMD 42.2N 66.2W 48.8N 49.8W 52.4N 21.5W 52.5N .6W
BAMM 41.9N 65.0W 46.8N 51.1W 49.0N 27.5W 49.4N 8.1W
LBAR 41.2N 64.5W 45.7N 49.9W .0N .0W .0N .0W
SHIP 89KTS 59KTS 29KTS 0KTS
DSHP 89KTS 53KTS 23KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 28.6N LONCUR = 66.6W DIRCUR = 330DEG SPDCUR = 17KT
LATM12 = 25.5N LONM12 = 64.9W DIRM12 = 326DEG SPDM12 = 16KT
LATM24 = 23.2N LONM24 = 62.6W
WNDCUR = 95KT RMAXWD = 15NM WNDM12 = 105KT
CENPRS = 957MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 240NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 240NM RD34SE = 200NM RD34SW = 100NM RD34NW = 175NM

$$
NNNN

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#3483 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Aug 21, 2009 2:14 pm

400
URNT15 KNHC 211911
AF300 0903A BILL HDOB 35 20090821
190200 2836N 06631W 6967 02888 9707 +129 +122 226084 085 062 005 00
190230 2835N 06630W 6964 02903 9715 +133 +119 227084 084 061 004 00
190300 2834N 06629W 6972 02906 9727 +135 +118 226081 081 062 004 00
190330 2833N 06627W 6967 02919 9745 +127 +117 224084 085 063 003 00
190400 2832N 06626W 6970 02924 9760 +123 +117 224086 086 067 005 00
190430 2831N 06625W 6967 02938 9772 +120 +116 225088 091 067 005 00
190500 2829N 06624W 6970 02947 9794 +111 +111 222095 096 068 009 00
190530 2828N 06623W 6972 02948 9990 +090 +999 221094 095 069 014 01
190600 2827N 06621W 6956 02975 9990 +085 +999 222097 098 068 012 01
190630 2826N 06620W 6965 02978 9862 +078 +078 226100 102 066 012 01
190700 2825N 06619W 6970 02978 9882 +076 +076 226099 104 063 012 00
190730 2824N 06618W 6963 03001 9883 +083 +083 222093 095 064 010 00
190800 2823N 06617W 6973 02993 9898 +079 +078 222094 096 061 009 00
190830 2822N 06615W 6966 03014 9905 +080 +073 222090 091 058 009 00
190900 2821N 06614W 6965 03018 9908 +085 +068 222089 089 058 008 00
190930 2819N 06613W 6967 03023 9908 +092 +064 221087 087 056 007 00
191000 2818N 06612W 6967 03026 9922 +085 +060 222087 087 055 008 00
191030 2817N 06611W 6967 03037 9930 +085 +057 221086 086 055 007 00
191100 2816N 06609W 6967 03043 9930 +091 +055 218084 085 054 005 00
191130 2815N 06608W 6967 03047 9927 +099 +053 218082 083 053 006 00
$$
;
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#3484 Postby DreamworksSKG » Fri Aug 21, 2009 2:16 pm

So does anyone know if the Cape Cod Atlantic Seashore- National Seashore would be best for watching the waves- SUN morning?
And what time would be best.? I'm hearing Sunday AM--?
for winds and waves out on the cape

Also does anyone have any idea if Sat. the surf will be up along Hampton Beach NH?

I dont want to bother going up there if the surf isn't going to be good

thanks!

Email me at jdearman77@gmail.com
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#3485 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Aug 21, 2009 2:19 pm

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#3486 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Aug 21, 2009 2:23 pm

483
URNT15 KNHC 211921
AF300 0903A BILL HDOB 36 20090821
191200 2814N 06607W 6966 03052 9930 +100 +052 219079 080 051 005 03
191230 2813N 06606W 6967 03056 9939 +097 +053 219078 079 050 005 03
191300 2811N 06605W 6967 03057 9943 +096 +055 218076 077 048 005 03
191330 2810N 06603W 6970 03059 9947 +097 +059 218075 075 047 004 00
191400 2809N 06602W 6970 03063 9949 +099 +062 216073 074 046 003 03
191430 2808N 06601W 6963 03076 9949 +101 +065 214073 073 046 003 03
191500 2807N 06600W 6974 03066 9955 +099 +069 214071 072 046 004 03
191530 2806N 06559W 6964 03084 9959 +100 +071 217071 072 046 006 03
191600 2805N 06557W 6969 03085 9964 +100 +072 218071 072 045 004 03
191630 2803N 06556W 6969 03084 9965 +102 +073 219069 069 045 006 03
191700 2802N 06555W 6962 03099 9966 +102 +074 220068 069 045 005 03
191730 2801N 06554W 6970 03090 9979 +096 +075 220067 067 045 005 03
191800 2800N 06552W 6966 03095 9989 +089 +075 220066 067 045 006 03
191830 2759N 06551W 6967 03098 9987 +094 +074 219067 067 045 006 03
191900 2757N 06550W 6967 03099 9982 +100 +072 220065 066 045 003 00
191930 2756N 06549W 6969 03100 9988 +100 +069 220064 065 044 003 03
192000 2755N 06547W 6965 03108 9990 +100 +069 220064 064 044 003 03
192030 2754N 06546W 6971 03103 9993 +100 +070 220062 063 043 006 03
192100 2753N 06545W 6965 03118 9994 +101 +071 220060 061 044 006 03
192130 2751N 06543W 6970 03107 0005 +092 +074 221061 063 046 007 03
$$
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#3487 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Aug 21, 2009 2:34 pm

600
URNT15 KNHC 211931
AF300 0903A BILL HDOB 37 20090821
192200 2750N 06542W 6966 03112 0035 +070 +070 226066 070 049 012 03
192230 2749N 06541W 6974 03107 0047 +062 +062 226068 070 055 020 00
192300 2748N 06540W 6978 03107 0048 +065 +065 219064 067 052 013 03
192330 2746N 06538W 6963 03128 0036 +077 +065 214062 062 051 006 03
192400 2745N 06537W 6965 03129 0017 +094 +061 216062 063 048 002 03
192430 2744N 06536W 6968 03124 0025 +091 +059 219064 064 999 999 03
192500 2743N 06535W 6967 03132 0029 +090 +059 221065 065 999 999 03
192530 2743N 06535W 6967 03132 0031 +090 +060 221064 065 043 001 03
192600 2741N 06532W 6966 03135 0034 +089 +062 218062 064 046 003 03
192630 2739N 06531W 6967 03138 0038 +087 +064 220064 067 044 005 00
192700 2738N 06530W 6963 03142 0047 +082 +064 220064 066 044 005 03
192730 2737N 06528W 6973 03133 0046 +086 +064 213062 063 043 006 03
192800 2736N 06527W 6969 03142 0057 +078 +062 212060 061 042 008 03
192830 2735N 06526W 6967 03142 0053 +085 +060 216062 064 042 007 03
192900 2733N 06525W 6966 03150 0065 +078 +058 213059 060 999 999 03
192930 2732N 06524W 6966 03147 0071 +074 +056 214059 060 999 999 03
193000 2731N 06524W 6963 03157 0060 +084 +054 218059 060 999 999 03
193030 2729N 06525W 6958 03163 0057 +085 +053 218056 057 999 999 03
193100 2728N 06525W 6969 03150 0059 +085 +053 215056 057 042 003 03
193130 2726N 06525W 6970 03148 0061 +086 +056 214057 058 999 999 03
$$
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#3488 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Aug 21, 2009 2:35 pm

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Re: ATL: HURRICANE BILL (03L)

#3489 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 21, 2009 2:43 pm

Web Cam in Bermuda.You have to refresh it to get the latest view.

Image

http://www.weather.bm/webcam.html
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#3490 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Aug 21, 2009 2:45 pm

616
URNT15 KNHC 211941
AF300 0903A BILL HDOB 38 20090821
193200 2724N 06525W 6966 03154 0062 +085 +061 217055 056 999 999 03
193230 2722N 06526W 6963 03162 0061 +085 +066 218054 054 999 999 03
193300 2721N 06526W 6967 03154 0055 +090 +070 218056 056 999 999 03
193330 2719N 06526W 6966 03156 0051 +094 +074 219057 057 999 999 03
193400 2717N 06526W 6969 03153 0053 +095 +078 219060 060 999 999 03
193430 2715N 06527W 6967 03158 0057 +090 +081 218059 059 999 999 03
193500 2713N 06527W 6969 03157 0057 +091 +084 217060 060 999 999 03
193530 2711N 06527W 6832 03326 0061 +081 +081 217059 061 999 999 03
193600 2710N 06528W 6503 03747 0064 +062 +062 211059 060 999 999 05
193630 2708N 06528W 6221 04111 9990 +038 +999 214057 058 999 999 05
193700 2706N 06528W 5982 04401 9990 +022 +999 218059 060 999 999 05
193730 2705N 06529W 5767 04698 9990 +006 +999 218056 056 999 999 05
193800 2703N 06529W 5562 05005 9990 -007 +999 225057 057 999 999 05
193830 2701N 06529W 5387 05264 0245 -017 +999 225055 056 999 999 05
193900 2700N 06529W 5213 05527 0265 -030 +999 225054 056 999 999 05
193930 2658N 06529W 5032 05810 0285 -046 +999 222052 053 999 999 05
194000 2656N 06530W 4847 06104 0305 -063 +999 219051 053 999 999 05
194030 2655N 06530W 4692 06366 0324 -078 +999 218054 054 999 999 05
194100 2653N 06530W 4549 06595 0334 -097 +999 219054 055 999 999 05
194130 2651N 06530W 4417 06829 0354 -109 +999 218053 054 037 002 05
$$
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#3491 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Aug 21, 2009 2:46 pm

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Re: ATL: HURRICANE BILL (03L)

#3492 Postby x-y-no » Fri Aug 21, 2009 2:50 pm

magnusson_r wrote:1) The predicted path has not really altered much in the past 36 hours or so, in that it still shows Bill staying *at least* 150km offshore from NS;


This statement simply isn't true. Nova Scotia has been in the cone since Tuesday night and is still in the cone.

2) I see where it was just downgraded to a Cat 2 -- And it hasn't even reached Bermuda yet!! It's falling apart in a hurry. It will lose H status long before it reaches Canadian waters.

NS will likely see some heavy rain and brisk winds, but other than that there appears to be no real threat to the province at all.


There are several things wrong with this statement. Such variations in intensity are not unusual and do not necessarily portend "falling apart." Category 2 is still a very powerful storm. Finally, you fail to consider the enhancement of the wind-field which typically comes with extratropical transition in interaction with a trough.
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#3493 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Aug 21, 2009 2:50 pm

157
URNT12 KNHC 211946
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL032009
A. 21/18:53:50Z
B. 28 deg 53 min N
066 deg 53 min W
C. 700 mb 2701 m
D. 63 kt
E. 293 deg 25 nm
F. 056 deg 67 kt
G. 302 deg 54 nm
H. 954 mb
I. 8 C / 3040 m
J. 16 C / 3047 m
K. 11 C / NA
L. OPEN SW
M. C14
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF300 0903A BILL OB 09
MAX FL WIND 111 KT NE QUAD 16:51:30Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 104 KT SE QUAD 19:06:50Z
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#3494 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Aug 21, 2009 2:51 pm

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#3495 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Aug 21, 2009 2:54 pm

287
URNT15 KNHC 211952
AF300 0903A BILL HDOB 39 20090821
194200 2650N 06531W 4297 07043 0370 -115 +999 216048 049 999 999 05
194230 2648N 06531W 4186 07241 0383 -125 +999 217046 047 999 999 05
194300 2646N 06531W 4085 07434 0397 -133 +999 224044 045 038 001 05
194330 2645N 06531W 4021 07551 0404 -142 +999 224043 043 999 999 05
194400 2643N 06532W 3947 07689 0412 -151 +999 221043 043 999 999 05
194430 2641N 06532W 3922 07738 0414 -155 +999 219042 043 999 999 05
194500 2639N 06532W 3923 07732 0413 -155 +999 221040 041 999 999 05
194530 2636N 06533W 3929 07720 0412 -155 +999 221040 040 999 999 05
194600 2634N 06533W 3923 07727 0414 -155 +999 222039 039 999 999 05
194630 2632N 06533W 3922 07735 0415 -155 +999 223041 041 999 999 05
194700 2629N 06533W 3926 07730 0417 -152 +999 224042 042 999 999 05
194730 2627N 06532W 3922 07742 0417 -155 +999 224041 041 999 999 05
194800 2624N 06532W 3927 07731 0419 -156 +999 222041 041 999 999 05
194830 2622N 06532W 3925 07738 0419 -159 +999 220039 040 999 999 05
194900 2619N 06532W 3926 07736 0419 -160 +999 221039 039 999 999 05
194930 2617N 06531W 3925 07741 0422 -164 +999 222039 039 999 999 05
195000 2614N 06531W 3926 07736 0422 -161 +999 220038 039 999 999 05
195030 2612N 06532W 3926 07738 0424 -165 +999 222038 038 999 999 05
195100 2610N 06533W 3926 07736 0424 -165 +999 222037 037 999 999 05
195130 2607N 06533W 3934 07719 0423 -160 +999 219035 036 999 999 05
$$
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Re: ATL: HURRICANE BILL (03L)

#3496 Postby sbcc » Fri Aug 21, 2009 3:00 pm

x-y-no wrote:
magnusson_r wrote:1) The predicted path has not really altered much in the past 36 hours or so, in that it still shows Bill staying *at least* 150km offshore from NS;


This statement simply isn't true. Nova Scotia has been in the cone since Tuesday night and is still in the cone.

2) I see where it was just downgraded to a Cat 2 -- And it hasn't even reached Bermuda yet!! It's falling apart in a hurry. It will lose H status long before it reaches Canadian waters.

NS will likely see some heavy rain and brisk winds, but other than that there appears to be no real threat to the province at all.



There are several things wrong with this statement. Such variations in intensity are not unusual and do not necessarily portend "falling apart." Category 2 is still a very powerful storm. Finally, you fail to consider the enhancement of the wind-field which typically comes with extratropical transition in interaction with a trough.


Look at that! X-Y-No turned a wishcast into a learning opportunity. Well done! 8-)
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Re: ATL: HURRICANE BILL (03L)

#3497 Postby HurricaneRobert » Fri Aug 21, 2009 3:08 pm

Is this category 2 or 3 right now? Is it expected to strengthen when it hits the Gulf stream?
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Re: ATL: HURRICANE BILL (03L)

#3498 Postby vbhoutex » Fri Aug 21, 2009 3:15 pm

tolakram wrote:Looking at all the steering charts

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... oom=&time=

Seems to me strength doesn't matter much at the moment.

Can someone confirm if I'm reading these correctly?

I would agree with your statement. Bill is pretty much almost caught up in the steering currents at all levels that would/will take him on the currently predicted track. Obviously some variation can occur, but I don't foresee any major changes in the progged track coming. I see no chance of him taking a more W or NW than he currently is.
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HR Bill is currently CAT2. I haven't looked at enough information to say whether it will restrengthen any once it gets the warmth of the GS, but I suppose it is a possibility. However, keep in mind Bill is struggling against other parameters so the GS warmth may not be enough to help with restrengthening.
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Re: ATL: HURRICANE BILL (03L)

#3499 Postby wxman57 » Fri Aug 21, 2009 3:31 pm

We can definitely see an outer eyewall forming on microwave imagery, even visible satellite imagery. Could be in an eyewall replacement cycle. If so, then it could regain a good bit of strength tomorrow.
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Re: ATL: HURRICANE BILL (Advisories)

#3500 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 21, 2009 3:40 pm

213
WTNT33 KNHC 212039
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE BILL ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
500 PM AST FRI AUG 21 2009

...HURRICANE BILL A LITTLE WEAKER...COULD REGAIN SOME STRENGTH ON
SATURDAY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR
BERMUDA.

INTERESTS ALONG THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND AND IN THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF BILL.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO
YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 29.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.9 WEST OR ABOUT 235 MILES...
380 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 640 MILES...1035 KM...
SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.

BILL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF HURRICANE BILL IS EXPECTED TO PASS
OVER THE OPEN WATERS BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE EAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 105
MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. BILL IS A CATEGORY TWO
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS STILL
POSSIBLE TONIGHT OR SATURDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275
MILES...445 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 954 MB...28.17 INCHES.

BILL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES OVER BERMUDA...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES.

THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS INDICATED THAT THE STORM TIDE WILL
RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 3 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG
THE COAST...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IN
ADVANCE OF BILL.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY THIS HURRICANE ARE AFFECTING PUERTO
RICO...HISPANIOLA...THE BAHAMAS...AND BERMUDA...AND SHOULD BEGIN
AFFECTING MOST OF THE U.S. EAST COAST AND THE ATLANTIC MARITIMES OF
CANADA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE
EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SURF AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS.

...SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...29.4N 66.9W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 20 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

358
WTNT43 KNHC 212040
TCDAT3
HURRICANE BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
500 PM AST FRI AUG 21 2009

AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REACHED BILL THIS
AFTERNOON AND FOUND THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS REMAINED AROUND
954 MB...BUT THE WINDS HAVE DECREASED AND INITIAL INTENSITY IS NOW
90 KT. THE PLANE REPORTED A SMALL EYE OF 14 N MI DIAMETER.
GIVEN THE CONCENTRIC RING STRUCTURE OBSERVED ON MICROWAVE AND THE
DOUBLE WIND MAXIMA PROVIDED BY THE PLANE...IT IS LIKELY THAT THE
HURRICANE IS GOING THROUGH AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT AND THE REASON
FOR THE CURRENT WEAKENING. THERE IS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR BILL TO
REGAIN SOME STRENGTH DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS WHILE THE SHEAR
IS LOW AND BEFORE THE HURRICANE REACHES COOLER WATERS.
THEREAFTER...A STEADY WEAKENING IS INDICATED AND BY 72 HOURS...BILL
SHOULD ALREADY BE AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE INTERACTING WITH THE
HIGH LATITUDE WESTERLIES.

BILL IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 17
KNOTS. THE HURRICANE SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN MORE TO THE NORTH AROUND
THE BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AND SHOULD BE FORCED TO
RECURVE AS A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES. THERE HAS NOT BEEN ANY CHANGE IN TRACK
GUIDANCE WHICH IN FACT CONTINUES TO BE TIGHTLY PACKED...MAINTAINING
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY THIS HURRICANE WILL AFFECT A LARGE PORTION
OF THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC COASTAL AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SURF AND
LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS. PLEASE CONSULT STATEMENTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE AND METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES FOR MORE
DETAILS.

AT THIS TIME...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE NOT FORECAST TO REACH
NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER...A SLIGHT SHIFT OF THE FORECAST TRACK TO THE
LEFT WOULD REQUIRE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH OR WARNING TONIGHT. THE
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY PRODUCT INDICATES THAT THERE IS ROUGHLY A 25
PERCENT CHANCE OF THESE WINDS REACHING EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN NEW
ENGLAND.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 21/2100Z 29.4N 66.9W 90 KT
12HR VT 22/0600Z 31.7N 68.0W 100 KT
24HR VT 22/1800Z 35.1N 68.4W 100 KT
36HR VT 23/0600Z 39.0N 67.2W 85 KT
48HR VT 23/1800Z 43.0N 64.0W 75 KT
72HR VT 24/1800Z 49.5N 47.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 25/1800Z 54.5N 20.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 26/1800Z 60.0N 6.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER AVILA


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