Caribbean - Central America Weather

[Gustywind]

We should not let our guard down after Bill my carib friends... as a new wave with a low pressure continues to race westard with a " LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS " given the latest TWO posted previously by Cycloneye . So let's wait and see what could happens with this feature...

000
AXNT20 KNHC 220002
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU AUG 20 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
AS OF 0000 UTC...HURRICANE BILL IS CENTERED NEAR 30.2N 67W OR
ABOUT 200 MILES...325 KM...SW OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 600
MILES...970 KM...ESE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MOVING NNW
NEAR 17 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 90 KT WITH GUSTS
TO 110 KT. BILL IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT OR
SATURDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE ALREADY OBSERVED IN
BERMUDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
85 MILES...140 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275 MILES...445 KM. LARGE SWELLS
GENERATED BY HURRICANE BILL ARE AFFECTING THE BAHAMAS AND
BERMUDA...AND BEGINNING TO AFFECT THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES. LARGE SWELLS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE U.S. EAST COAST AND THE ATLANTIC MARITIMES OF
CANADA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE
EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SURF AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS. SEE
THE LATEST FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
TCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 100 NM FROM THE CENTER OF BILL...WITH MODERATE
CONVECTION EXTENDING OUT TO 150 NM...WITHIN 200 NM IN A RAINBAND
TO THE NE OF THE CENTER.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A NEW TROPICAL WAVE IS ADDED TO THE 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS
ALONG 20W S OF 16N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THIS WAVE COINCIDES WITH
A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM OBSERVED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. THIS WAVE IS LOW-AMPLITUDE DUE TO A LAYER OF DRY
SAHARAN AIR N OF 16N. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 20W-23W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W S OF 17N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THIS
WAVE IS RELOCATED FARTHER W THAN ITS CURRENT MOTION IMPLIES IN
ORDER TO ALIGN WITH A 1010 MB LOW-LEVEL SURFACE CIRCULATION NEAR
12N32W NOTED IN CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WAVE COINCIDES
WITH A DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE MAXIMUM OBSERVED IN THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
13N-15N BETWEEN 32W-25W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 57W S OF 16N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THIS
WAVE LIES IN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OBSERVED IN
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS WITHIN THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 55W-61W.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 13N13W 11N23W 13N31W 9N45W
9N61W. A LARGE CLUSTER OF NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS
APPROACHING THE AFRICA COAST FROM 13N-18N BETWEEN 10W-17W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM S
OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 38W-44W...AND 150 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN
45W-55W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO ANCHORED BY A
1018 MB HIGH NEAR 27N89W. A SURFACE TROUGH LINES THE MEXICO
COAST EXTENDING FROM 17N93W TO 24N96W. SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR
THE TROUGH ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN AN UPPER
LEVEL HIGH OVER CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 24N104W AND AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 19N89W ARE SUPPORTING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE WRN GULF FROM 21N-26N
W OF 92W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO ACROSS THE
NRN GULF N OF 28N BETWEEN 84W-96W. THIS ACTIVITY IS SUPPORTED BY
SURFACE CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT N OF THE AREA
EXTENDING ACROSS NW MISSISSIPPI...N LOUISIANA...AND INTO TEXAS.
THIS ACTIVITY IS ALSO ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
BETWEEN A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES AND A SHORTWAVE RIDGE ACROSS THE NRN GULF EXTENDING FROM
THE NE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE SRN TIP OF TEXAS. UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THIS SHORTWAVE RIDGE AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW N
OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 29N77W IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA N OF 24N E OF
83W. THE REMAINDER OF THE SRN AND CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO IS
EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
SURFACE RIDGE...AND DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE TO THE E OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 19N89W IS FLARING UP ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE W CARIBBEAN ESPECIALLY OVER
PORTIONS OF CUBA...JAMAICA...AND PARTS OF NRN CENTRAL AMERICA.
ISOLATED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO ACROSS THE FAR
SW CARIBBEAN S OF 11N BETWEEN 72W-84W DUE TO SURFACE CONVERGENCE
NEAR A 1008 MB LOW OVER PANAMA NEAR 10N78W AND THE E PACIFIC
ITCZ WHICH STRETCHES ACROSS PANAMA TO THE LOW CENTER. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM 18N71W INTO
THE ATLC TO 24N70W. SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE TROUGH IS
GENERATING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND THE
ADJACENT WATERS. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS EXPERIENCING
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER DUE TO DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT...EXCEPT FOR A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS DUE
TO AN APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 57W. MODERATE
TRADEWINDS ARE ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN WITH STRONGER WINDS NEAR
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 57W TO
REACH THE LESSER ANTILLES TOMORROW.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
HURRICANE BILL REMAINS THE MAIN FEATURE ACROSS THE ATLC. SEE
SPECIAL FEATURES FOR DETAILS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA N OF 24N W OF 80W DUE TO UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN A SHORTWAVE RIDGE ACROSS THE NRN GULF
AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW N OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 29N77W. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS HISPANIOLA FROM 18N71W INTO THE ATLC TO
24N70W. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED ON THE N
SIDE OF THE ISLAND. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC OCEAN IS UNDER A
BROAD RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH NEAR 35N51W AND A 1029 MB
AZORES HIGH NEAR 38N22W. BILL CONTINUES TO MOVE AROUND THE WRN
PERIPHERY OF THIS SFC RIDGE...BUT WILL SOON BECOME STEERED
NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD BY THE FLOW BETWEEN THE AZORES HIGH
AND A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC BETWEEN 45W-75W
AS A RESULT OF THE OUTFLOW OF BILL. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
BETWEEN THIS UPPER RIDGE AND AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED NEAR
19N37W IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE W PORTION OF THE ITCZ.

$$
WALTON

[cycloneye]

TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE BILL ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
1100 PM AST FRI AUG 21 2009

...BILL MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...BRINGING RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS
TO BERMUDA...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR
BERMUDA.

INTERESTS ALONG THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND AND IN THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF BILL. TROPICAL STORM
WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE ISSUED ON SATURDAY FOR NOVA SCOTIA AND
NEWFOUNDLAND.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 31.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.5 WEST OR ABOUT 180 MILES...
295 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 545 MILES...880 KM...
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.

BILL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR. A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...WITH A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON SUNDAY. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF HURRICANE BILL IS EXPECTED TO PASS
OVER THE OPEN WATERS BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE EAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES ON SATURDAY. BILL IS EXPECTED TO PASS OFFSHORE OF THE
COAST OF NEW ENGLAND LATE SATURDAY AND APPROACH NOVA SCOTIA ON
SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. BILL IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT OR SATURDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275
MILES...445 KM. A WEATHER STATION AT COMMISSIONERS POINT ON
BERMUDA...AT AN ELEVATION OF 250 FEET...RECENTLY REPORTED A
10-MINUTE SUSTAINED WIND OF 61 MPH...98 KM/HR...WITH A GUST OF 97
MPH...156 KM/HR.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 957 MB...28.26 INCHES.

BILL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES OVER BERMUDA...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES.

THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS INDICATED THAT THE STORM TIDE WILL
RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 3 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG
THE COAST...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY HURRICANE BILL ARE AFFECTING THE BAHAMAS
AND BERMUDA...AND BEGINNING TO AFFECT THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES. LARGE SWELLS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE U.S. EAST COAST AND THE ATLANTIC MARITIMES OF
CANADA ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE
EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SURF AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS.

...SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...31.0N 67.5W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 20 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1008 PM AST FRI AUG 21 2009

.UPDATE...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WERE DETECTED EARLY THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS
AFFECTED THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...VIEQUES CULEBRA AND THE EASTERN
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THIS ACTIVITY WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW TO
MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. AREAS OF LOW
TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FROM THE LOCAL
WATERS...ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS
ACROSS VIEQUES CULEBRA AND THE U.S.V.I. OVERNIGHT AND EARLY IN THE
MORNING...RESULTING IN PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL.
A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 57 WEST LATE THIS EVENING WILL TRACK
WESTWARD PASSING MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS LATE
SATURDAY/EARLY SUNDAY. FEW MINOR CHANGES WERE DONE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST PACKAGE TO INCREASE THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
COVERAGE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
CARIBBEAN WATERS.

[caribsue]

News from Barbados is that the wind is starting to really gust again with some rain here in the south. Looks like we in for a bit of weather tonight and tomorrow, nothing like our neighbours up north are experiencing though.

To all those in Bermuda.... you have been in my prayers all day today and tonight and will be tomorrow.

[cycloneye]

Good morning to all.Watching the waves to our east.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
414 AM AST SAT AUG 22 2009


.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD UP OVER THE THE
LOCAL REGION FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL WAVE NOW LOCATED
JUST EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WILL MOVE WEST AND ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THESE TWO WEATHER FEATURE
WILL HELP TO TIGHT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST
AREA THEREFORE INCREASING THE WINDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS TONIGHT WITH A FEW AFFECTING THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND ADJACENT ISLANDS. THESE SHOWERS ARE
ASSOCIATED TO A LOW TO MID LEVEL TROUGH. THIS FEATURE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA BEFORE
MID MORNING.

AN AREA SUBSIDENCE WILL MOVE OVER THE ISLANDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
LIMITING THE WEATHER ACTIVITY. LOCAL EFFECTS WILL COMBINE AND
ENOUGH LIFTING WILL BE AVAILABLE TO GENERATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION
OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF PUERTO RICO. TONIGHT...A WEAK TROPICAL
WAVE WILL MOVE WEST AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN WATERS. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED TO THIS WAVE WILL GENERATE SHOWERS
ACROSS THE OFF SHORE CARIBBEAN WATERS...A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS
COULD AFFECT THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.

FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS EXPECT MAINLY LOCAL EFFECTS AND DIURNALLY
INDUCED CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA WITH NOCTURNAL SHOWERS
AFFECTING THE PARTS OF THE EAST COASTAL AREAS FROM TIME TO
TIME...WITH PREVAILING FAIR WEATHER SKIES DURING THE DAY.

[msbee]

Morning updates from Bermuda correspondents

http://stormcarib.com/reports/current/bermuda.shtml

[cycloneye]

637
ABNT20 KNHC 221141
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT AUG 22 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
BILL...LOCATED ABOUT 410 MILES EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL
WAVE LOCATED HALFWAY BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES REMAIN
DISORGANIZED. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE BECOMING LESS FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WAVES...
THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS REPORTED TO BE ALONG 20W/21W AT
22/0000 UTC WAS MOVED TO 15W TO THE SOUTH OF 17N MOVING WEST
10 KT. THE WAVE WAS MOVED BACKWARD IN ORDER TO FIT THE PATTERN
OF THE SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS. THAT PATTERN SHOWS THAT THE WAVE
STILL IS OVER LAND...AND NOT IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN YET. STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 18W AND
20W...AND FROM 10N TO 11N BETWEEN 21W AND 22W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 12N36W.
THIS LOW CENTER IS ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS ALONG 15N37W
8N36W. THE WAVE IS MOVING WEST ABOUT 15 KT. STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 14N TO 15N BETWEEN 36W AND 37W.
OTHER ITCZ SHOWERS ARE FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 30W AND 40W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 15N60W 11N59W 8N58W MOVING WEST
10 TO 15 KT. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM
10N TO 13N BETWEEN 55W AND 61W.

[cycloneye]

FXCA62 TJSJ 221817
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
217 PM AST SAT AUG 22 2009

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL HIGH ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL
PUSH WESTWARD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND...WHILE AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC MOVES TOWARD THE
FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

AT MID LEVELS...AN INVERTED TROUGH SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS AT
THIS TIME WILL MOVE WEST NORTHWEST FOR THIS PERIOD AND EXPECTED TO
EXIT THE LOCAL REGION SUNDAY MORNING. ANOTHER INVERTED
TROUGH/UPPER LEVEL LOW REFLECTION OF THE UPPER HIGH MENTION ABOVE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

AT LOW LEVELS...A SUBTROPICAL SURFACE HIGH EXTENDS SOUTHWEST
TOWARDS THE CARIBBEAN. THIS HIGH IS PRODUCING A MODERATE TO FRESH
EAST NORTHEAST WIND FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION. TROPICAL WAVE PASSING WELL
SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA THIS AFTERNOON...TO HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THIS MORNING 12Z TJSJ SOUNDING CAME UP WITH A PW
VALUE OF 1.98 IN. HOWEVER...WE WERE ANTICIPATING DRY WEATHER FOR
MUCH OF THE ISLAND TODAY...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS. WITH A PW OF
1.98 IN...IS HARD NOT TO HAVE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE ISLAND MAINLY WITHIN THE NEXT TWO TO THREE HOURS. THEREFORE...
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD WAS ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY TO SHOW AN
INCREASE OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA AND POSSIBLE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ONE OR TWO THUNDERSTORM MAINLY FOR THE WESTERN
INTERIOR AND WESTERN COAST OF PUERTO RICO.

LATEST VISIBLE IMAGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SHOWS A LINE OF CLOUDS
OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS MOVING
WEST. UNDERNEATH THIS LINE OF CLOUDS...NWS DOPPLER RADAR IS
DETECTING LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWER ACTIVITY. THESE SHOWERS ARE
MOVING FAST ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS . A LINE OF SHOWERS THAT
FORMED OVER WESTERN SAINT THOMAS ABOUT AN HOUR AGO...AND NOW
HEADING TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST COAST OF PUERTO RICO COULD BE
ARRIVING TO FAJARDO/LUQUILLO/RIO GRANDE AREA WITHIN THE NEXT HALF
AN HOUR.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS COULD BE AFFECTING THE ISLANDS OF SAINT
JOHN/SAINT THOMAS/SMALLER ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS FROM 2 PM
TO 4 PM AND PORTIONS OF EASTERN PUERTO RICO FROM 3 PM TO 5 PM AST.

OVERALL WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE THIS EVENING
ONCE THE LINE OF SHOWERS OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS MOVES AWAY OR
DISSIPATED. EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR TONIGHT FOR THE LOCAL
AREA WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE FAST MOVING SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COASTS OF THE ISLANDS. WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE AREA AS PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTEN FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS.

MARINE CONDITIONS...SEAS AND WINDS WILL INCREASE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT
FOR THE OFF SHORE ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN AND LOCAL PASSAGES THROUGH
AT LEAST LATE SUNDAY. SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTIONS ELSEWHERE.

EXTENDED FORECAST...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FEATURE TO AFFECT THE
LOCAL AREA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17W S OF 17N MOVING W AT 10 KT. LOW-LEVEL
CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS NOTED IN THE CLOUD FIELD ALONG THE WAVE
AXIS N OF 11N. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 9N-20N E OF 20W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED ACROSS
INTERIOR W AFRICA FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 9W-17W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W S OF 18N MOVING W AT 20-25 KT. A 1009
MB LOW IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 12N. THIS WAVE COINCIDES WITH
A MAXIMUM IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER AND REMAINS EMBEDDED
WITHIN AN ELONGATED ARE OF CYCLONIC CURVATURE S OF 16N BETWEEN
35W-48W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN
40W-46W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 64W S OF 17N MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. AN
AREA OF MAXIMUM TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IS MOVING ACROSS THE SE
CARIBBEAN WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
FROM 7N-13N BETWEEN 60W-68W.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
944 PM AST SAT AUG 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA
TONIGHT AND HELP STRENGTHEN THE TRADE WIND FLOW OVER THE NEXT 24
HRS. A TUTT LOW NEAR 26N 54W WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS
AND SETTLE JUST NORTH OF PR ON MON. AN INVERTED TROF WILL ALSO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION ON MON BUT ONLY LITTLE MOISTURE INCREASE IS
EXPECTED.

&&

.DISCUSSION...00Z JSJ SOUNDING SHOWS SUBSIDENCE/DRYING HAS TAKEN
PLACE ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE PAST 12 HRS WITH PWATS DOWN TO 1.65
INCHES FROM NEARLY 2.0 INCHES THIS MORNING AND A SUBSIDENCE CAP
NOW DOWN TO 800 MB. SOUNDING ALSO SHOWS THAT TRADE WIND FLOW HAS
STRENGTHEN IN THE 25-KT RANGE IN THE LOWEST 1-2KFT AS HAS BEEN
SUGGESTED BY MODELS. ONLY ISOLD FAST MOVING SHRAS ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT MAINLY OVR THE ERN THIRD OF PR. STRENGTH OF THE FLOW
SHOULD LIMIT SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH
SUBSIDENCE CAP FURTHER LIMITING CHANCES FOR PRECIP. OVERALL...A
NICE DAY WITH PLENTY OF SUN ALTHOUGH WITH A STRONG BREEZE.

NEXT SIG WX FEATURE IS TUTT LOW FCST TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE
SUBTROPICAL ATLC AND SETTLE NORTH OF PR ON MON. MODELS SHOW AN
INVERTED TROF PASSING THROUGH THE AREA ON MON. SUBSIDENCE CAP
WEAKENS/LIFTS TO AROUND H7 BUT MOST OF THE MOISTURE LOOKS TO STAY
WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN SHRA CVRG MON
AFTERNOON BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT DUE TO LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE.

TROPICS SEEM TO HAVE TAKEN A BREAK WITH NOTHING IN THE TROP ATLC
OF IMMEDIATE CONCERN FOR POTENTIAL TC DEVELOPMENT.

[cycloneye]

This is important information as we enter the peak of the season.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
517 PM AST SAT AUG 22 2009

...ENTERING THE PEAK OF HURRICANE SEASON...

NOW THAT WE ARE RAPIDLY APPROACHING THE PEAK OF HURRICANE SEASON...
WE SHOULD REMAIN ALERT TO THE POTENTIAL THREATS FROM TROPICAL
CYCLONES.

RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO
ARE ENCOURAGED TO GO OVER THEIR HURRICANE PLANS.

HERE ARE SOME IMPORTANT THINGS THAT YOU SHOULD KNOW ABOUT
TROPICAL CYCLONES...

TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE WATCH...TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE GENERALLY BETWEEN 36 TO 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE WARNING...TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS.

DO NOT FOCUS ON THE SKINNY BLACK FORECAST LINE.

A HURRICANE IS NOT A POINT ON A MAP. THE DANGEROUS EFFECTS OF A
HURRICANE CAN EXTEND SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES AWAY FROM THE CENTER.
IF YOU ARE WITHIN THE CONE OF UNCERTAINTY...IT IS WISE TO ASSUME
THAT YOU COULD EASILY BE ADVERSELY AFFECTED BY THE STORM.

NOW IS THE TIME TO TAKE PRECAUTIONS AND SECURE YOUR PROPERTY. THE
FOLLOWING ARE SOME SUGGESTIONS FOR PREPARING FOR THE STORM...

GROCERY STORES MAY SELL OUT OF ITEMS QUICKLY. STOCK UP ON
BATTERIES FOR RADIOS AND FLASHLIGHTS...CANNED OR DRIED
FOOD...DRINKING WATER FOR AT LEAST 5 TO 7 DAYS...FIRST AID
SUPPLIES...AND PRESCRIPTION MEDICINE.

GET CASH...AS CREDIT CARDS AND ATM MACHINES WILL NOT WORK WITHOUT
ELECTRICITY. ALSO...GET FUEL FOR AUTOMOBILES...GENERATORS AND
CHAIN SAWS.

AROUND THE HOUSE...STORE LOOSE ITEMS SUCH AS TRASH CANS OR YARD
FURNITURE. SECURE WINDOWS WITH SHUTTERS OR PLYWOOD. ENSURE
BATTERY OPERATED RADIOS ARE WORKING. MOVE BOATS TO A SAFE
LOCATION. TRIM LARGE TREES THAT COULD FALL ON YOUR HOME. MAKE
SURE VALUABLE PAPERS ARE SECURE.

KNOW WHICH LOCAL SHELTER WOULD BE AVAILABLE TO YOU SHOULD YOU
DECIDE YOU ARE NO LONGER SAFE FROM HIGH WINDS AND/OR FLOODING.

IF YOU MUST EVACUATE TO A PUBLIC SHELTER...REMEMBER TO
BRING A FIRST AID KIT...MEDICINE...BABY FOOD...DIAPERS...TOILETRIES...
CHANGE OF CLOTHES...BATTERY POWERED RADIO AND EXTRA
BATTERIES...FLASHLIGHT...SLEEPING BAGS OR
BLANKETS...IDENTIFICATION...VALUABLE PAPERS...CASH...GAMES.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON HURRICANE PREPAREDNESS TIPS...AND
HURRICANES IN GENERAL...IS AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET FROM SEVERAL
SOURCES...

PUERTO RICO EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY SPANISH WEB PAGE...

HTTP://WWW.GOBIERNO.PR/AEMEAD/INICIO

FEDERAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY...

HTTP://FEMA.GOV

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HURRICANE PREPAREDNESS HOME PAGE...

HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/HAW2/ENGLISH/INTRO.SHTML

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...

HTTP://HURRICANES.GOV

AMERICAN RED CROSS HOME PAGE...

HTTP://REDCROSS.ORG

/ALL WEB PAGES SHOULD BE TYPED IN LOWER CASE/

[cycloneye]

Good morning to all on this sunday.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
255 AM AST SUN AUG 23 2009

.DISCUSSION...TRADE WIND FLOW PICKING UP OVERNIGHT AS WEAK LOW
LATITUDE WAVE PUSHES WEST OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN. MODEST WIND SURGE
BEHIND THAT WAVE WITH WILL BRING A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH WEAK
SAHARAN DUST AND LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY. A TUTT LOW TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARDS WILL REFLECT A LOWER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
TONIGHT TO PUSH THROUGH THE LEEWARDS. BY MONDAY...FLOW WILL BEGIN
VEERING TO THE SE AND FULLY SOUTHERLY BY TUESDAY AS MODELS SHOW
SURFACE TROUGHING TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. COULD BE IN
FOR A MOIST AND VERY HOT DAY TUESDAY AS WINDS TURN VERY
WEAK...ALLOWING FOR MORE HEAT OVER THE NORTH COAST AND ENHANCED
SHOWER ACTIVITY. AT THE SAME TIME A CUTOFF UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED
TO DEVELOP OVER THE LOCAL AREA...WHICH WOULD FURTHER ENHANCE UPPER
DYNAMICS FOR LIKELY TSTM ACTIVITY TUESDAY. AS THE SURFACE TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW DRIFT SLOWLY NW WEDNESDAY...AND
AMPLIFY...PATTERN SHOULD DRY OUT A BIT AND WINDS/WX RETURN TO MORE
CLIMATOLOGICAL PATTERN FOR REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. NO TROPICAL
CYCLONES EXPECTED NEXT 7 DAYS.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WAVES...
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20W TO THE
SOUTH OF 16N MOVING WEST 10 KT. DISORGANIZED ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
15N22W 12N25W 8N27W...AND FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN AFRICA AND
21W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN RE-LOCATED FROM 43W/44W
TO 48W BASED ON THE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WAVE IS TO THE SOUTH
OF 18N MOVING WESTWARD 20 TO 25 KT. DISORGANIZED ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10N TO 21N BETWEEN 40W
AND 54W.

[cycloneye]

2 PM Discussion about the waves

TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21W S OF 17N MOVING W 10-15 KT. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATE GOOD
LOW/MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS.
THIS WAVE ALSO COINCIDES WITH A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM
OBSERVED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN
23W-27W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS FROM 14N-16N BETWEEN 18W-20W.

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 17N51W TO 9N48W MOVING W 20-25 KT.
AN INVERTED-V FEATURE IS APPARENT IN THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD
STRUCTURE IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WAVE ALSO COINCIDES
WITH A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM OBSERVED IN TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 14N-15N BETWEEN 45W-54W.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
206 PM AST SUN AUG 23 2009


.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED NEAR 24 NORTH...57 WEST AND
ITS ASSOCIATED TROUGHFINESS THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN IS PUSHING HIGH CLOUDS TO THE LOCAL ISLANDS AT THIS
TIME. ALSO...MID LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PORTION
OF THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC MOVING WEST NORTHWEST...IS GENERATING
A SECOND MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK ACROSS THE REGION. AS A RESULT OF
THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO CLOUD DECKS...HAZY SKIES ARE
NOTICEABLE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC IS
PRODUCING A MODERATE TO FRESH EAST NORTHEAST WIND FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION. ALTHOUGH...THIS WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CHANCE
WITHIN THE 24 HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS A BIT AND A TROPICAL
WAVE APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA. THEREFORE...EXPECT LIMITED
SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR THE REST OF TODAY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH A
LOCALIZED MODERATE SHOWER OVER SOUTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT OVERALL DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY. THEN...ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AS THE FIRST BAND OF MOISTURE JUST AHEAD
OF THE TROPICAL WAVE MENTIONED ABOVE ARRIVES TO THE LOCAL AREA.

AS THE WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE ISLANDS ON TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
OVER THE REGIONAL WATERS AND ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND
CENTRAL INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE ISLAND...WHICH MAY RESULT IN MINOR
FLOODING ACROSS LOW LYING...POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS AS WELL
AS SMALL RIVER STREAMS. STAY TUNED FOR MORE DETAILS ON THIS AS
TIME PROGRESSES.

[cycloneye]

Very hot this afternoon as heat index is over 100.

Code: Select all

ASCA42 TJSJ 231910
RWRPR
PUERTO RICO/U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS HOURLY WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
300 PM AST SUN AUG 23 2009

PRZ001-004-232000-
PUERTO RICO

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
SAN JUAN LMM   MOSUNNY   88  77  70 E20       29.91F HX 100
PONCE          MOSUNNY   91  79  66 SE12G17   29.89S HX 107
MAYAGUEZ       PTSUNNY   91  77  62 SW12      29.88F HX 105
AGUADILLA      MOSUNNY   86  75  70 E14G29    29.92F HX  95


[Gustywind]

000
AWCA82 TJSJ 232004
RWSVI

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
404 PM AST SUN AUG 23 2009

MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS
AFTERNOON. ONLY LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS WERE DETECTED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S.

A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE LOCAL WATERS OVERNIGHT AND
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE. THE MOST SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AS FLOW TURNS SOUTHEAST BEHIND THE WAVE
AND MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS...MARINERS SHOULD EXPECT WINDS OF 21
KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 7 FEET OR LESS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
ARE IN EFFECT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND ATLANTIC OFF SHORE WATERS.
ELSEWHERE...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED TO EXPIRE TO TONIGHT AS WINDS AND SEAS
DIMINISH THROUGH TUESDAY.

$$

[cycloneye]

[Gustywind]

Hi my carib friends, seems that the twave near the 50W continues to race westward with increasing convection. Meteo-France Guadeloupe forecasted numerous showers for Monday... and a very moist weather with tstorms by Tuesday.