ATL: TROPICAL STORM BILL (03L)

[HURAKAN]

002
URNT15 KNHC 221704
AF303 1203A BILL HDOB 26 20090822
165500 3454N 06824W 6970 02981 9835 +110 +107 229076 077 048 002 00
165530 3456N 06825W 6967 02976 9829 +110 +102 229078 079 050 000 00
165600 3458N 06826W 6967 02972 9818 +114 +096 230081 082 052 001 00
165630 3500N 06826W 6969 02961 9805 +119 +095 231082 082 054 003 00
165700 3502N 06827W 6970 02952 9788 +124 +106 235081 083 057 004 00
165730 3503N 06828W 6970 02937 9783 +117 +117 235080 083 059 006 00
165800 3505N 06828W 6974 02928 9771 +116 +116 233077 077 061 007 01
165830 3507N 06829W 6967 02922 9754 +121 +121 228078 079 063 006 00
165900 3509N 06830W 6970 02910 9738 +128 +128 227079 080 064 005 00
165930 3510N 06831W 6975 02893 9990 +111 +999 227075 076 063 009 01
170000 3512N 06831W 6969 02895 9717 +128 +128 232070 071 063 006 00
170030 3514N 06832W 6970 02883 9712 +124 +124 234066 067 058 004 00
170100 3516N 06833W 6964 02882 9698 +127 +127 232066 067 054 002 00
170130 3518N 06834W 6969 02860 9686 +126 +126 232064 064 052 004 01
170200 3519N 06834W 6965 02854 9990 +113 +999 232056 060 050 010 01
170230 3521N 06835W 6975 02837 9990 +115 +999 227050 051 050 016 01
170300 3523N 06836W 6971 02841 9990 +115 +999 223046 048 051 015 05
170330 3525N 06837W 6970 02833 9990 +119 +999 216040 042 050 012 05
170400 3526N 06838W 6972 02831 9990 +133 +999 214038 039 045 009 05
170430 3527N 06840W 6967 02834 9631 +138 +138 218036 036 038 004 01
$$
;

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

355
URNT15 KNHC 221714
AF303 1203A BILL HDOB 27 20090822
170500 3528N 06841W 6969 02823 9624 +143 +143 222031 034 034 004 00
170530 3529N 06843W 6970 02820 9621 +144 +141 231025 026 031 002 03
170600 3531N 06845W 6969 02823 9616 +146 +142 230025 026 025 001 00
170630 3532N 06846W 6969 02818 9616 +143 +141 228026 027 025 000 00
170700 3533N 06848W 6967 02819 9612 +146 +138 233022 024 021 001 00
170730 3535N 06849W 6974 02808 9616 +140 +140 240015 017 022 000 03
170800 3536N 06850W 6966 02817 9616 +140 +140 238011 013 021 001 00
170830 3537N 06852W 6969 02812 9608 +148 +140 234006 008 017 002 00
170900 3539N 06853W 6970 02815 9609 +148 +139 228004 004 018 001 00
170930 3540N 06854W 6970 02811 9613 +146 +137 237004 004 017 001 00
171000 3541N 06856W 6967 02823 9612 +150 +136 282004 005 018 000 03
171030 3543N 06857W 6965 02822 9611 +150 +136 338004 005 016 000 00
171100 3544N 06859W 6972 02817 9612 +151 +136 017010 013 012 001 00
171130 3545N 06900W 6964 02828 9613 +151 +136 017016 017 014 000 00
171200 3547N 06901W 6973 02821 9616 +152 +135 018014 015 017 002 00
171230 3548N 06903W 6967 02826 9625 +145 +140 016016 018 022 002 00
171300 3549N 06905W 6966 02832 9619 +154 +138 019019 019 022 002 00
171330 3550N 06906W 6971 02831 9627 +150 +139 019023 025 028 003 00
171400 3551N 06907W 6967 02843 9634 +148 +142 031034 039 038 007 00
171430 3553N 06909W 6970 02846 9652 +140 +140 032037 038 039 008 00
$$
;

[CrazyC83]

Just looked at all the most Recent models
0z CMC landfall in Halifax
12z z GFS basically brings it into Halfax Metro and emerges over Cape Breton Island
6z GFDL basically the same as the GFS except its half on the coast and half over water
06 HWRF a hear south of GFDL with most of the center off shore but some onshore and Halfax would still take a licking
Nogaps hits Halfax ala CMC.
NAM at 12 is probably the most offshore but still shows quite a bit of weather for Halfiax.


SO, what I dont get, is why the Environment Canada has Halifax under a TS warning and not a Hurricane warning. The Canadian met on Accuwx says he thinks this wont be as bad for Halifax as Juan because it was hit perpendicular, but I have my reservations about that as for all intents and purposes a large part of the inner core, even if its the west side, will hit Halifax directly....not to mention much of the worst weather could end up on the west side in a transitioning cyclone, which this will be when it gets there. Their own hurricane models even brings it right into Halifax. I am not an expert and I realize that this area of canada juts so far into the atlantic that gale storms arent uncommon. BUT i think this has the potential to be a lot worse for Halifax than a typical winter gale, and certainly worse than Juan given its much larger size. Juan was barely a cat 2 at landfall. This could certainly make a run at hitting stronger than Juan. So I once again, I dot get it. Maybe cultural? I know other countries dont get bent out of shape about these technicalities like us US weather nuts.

Well after Juan, EC suffered from quite some embarrassment, since then they have taken to "over-warning" the public and predicting hurricanes when they were nothing more than gales. Now it seems like they don't want to say too much and they don't want to say too little. They have "political" answers for everything leaving everyone to kind of decide for themselves what they want to do therefore if they are under-prepared or over-prepared they only have themselves to blame because EC didn't tell them to do either...

Myself, I take the approach prepare for the worst and hope for the best... sounds easy enough to me . Thats why I have been following this forum because I can get more info here than from EC. Thanks guys )

THESE ARE NOT OFFICIAL, but if I were making the decisions, they would be:

Hurricane Watch (warning later) - NE Nova Scotia, SW Newfoundland

Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch (warning if the track shifts west) - Nova Scotia from Halifax westward

Tropical Storm Warning - Fundy coast areas

Tropical Storm Watch (warning later and/or if the track shifts) - SE and N Newfoundland, Prince Edward Island, NW Nova Scotia, SE New Brunswick

[CrazyC83]

It actually looks a lot like Isabel at landfall right now.

If this makes a landfall near Lunenburg, it will surely be worse than Juan even if slightly weaker. The IKE is 83 and the Destruction Potential on surge/waves is 4.6 right now. (It was never calculated with Juan, but I am guessing that it was around 2.5 given its much smaller size)

ftp://ftp.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/pub/hwind/2 ... tour04.png

[KWT]

It doesn't look too bad right now, and it certainly seems to have expanded quite a lot as well thanks to those constant EWRC its undertaking.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 221724
AF303 1203A BILL HDOB 28 20090822
171500 3554N 06910W 6969 02857 9662 +139 +137 031033 038 040 007 00
171530 3555N 06912W 6974 02854 9673 +138 +129 030032 033 040 005 00
171600 3556N 06913W 6974 02864 9688 +130 +130 028035 036 046 009 00
171630 3557N 06915W 6970 02873 9688 +134 +134 025041 042 053 008 00
171700 3558N 06916W 6972 02874 9693 +135 +135 027046 047 058 009 00
171730 3600N 06918W 6971 02881 9697 +137 +135 029047 048 059 008 00
171800 3601N 06919W 6972 02886 9712 +129 +129 029046 047 061 010 00
171830 3602N 06920W 6972 02892 9990 +114 +999 036045 046 061 012 01
171900 3603N 06922W 6968 02907 9990 +107 +999 043051 052 060 019 01
171930 3604N 06923W 6970 02920 9990 +101 +999 051057 059 059 019 01
172000 3605N 06925W 6969 02931 9990 +101 +999 048060 062 057 020 01
172030 3607N 06926W 6970 02937 9990 +100 +999 050064 065 056 018 01
172100 3608N 06928W 6972 02946 9990 +099 +999 046061 065 054 013 01
172130 3609N 06929W 6969 02952 9990 +101 +999 044057 059 053 012 01
172200 3610N 06931W 6970 02957 9990 +102 +999 043054 057 052 012 01
172230 3611N 06932W 6967 02968 9990 +102 +999 042057 057 049 010 01
172300 3613N 06934W 6970 02970 9830 +106 +106 040055 056 050 009 00
172330 3614N 06935W 6972 02973 9834 +108 +108 043056 058 049 009 00
172400 3615N 06937W 6968 02982 9840 +106 +106 044056 057 048 008 00
172430 3616N 06938W 6970 02986 9849 +104 +104 046053 055 048 005 00
$$
;

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 221734
AF303 1203A BILL HDOB 29 20090822
172500 3617N 06940W 6970 02992 9854 +105 +105 045053 054 046 004 00
172530 3619N 06941W 6970 02993 9854 +108 +108 047052 053 046 003 00
172600 3620N 06943W 6969 03003 9860 +107 +107 047052 053 046 002 00
172630 3621N 06944W 6970 03003 9866 +107 +104 045051 052 047 003 00
172700 3622N 06946W 6971 03004 9869 +107 +107 046050 050 046 004 00
172730 3623N 06947W 6969 03010 9872 +108 +108 048050 051 047 004 00
172800 3625N 06949W 6971 03015 9878 +106 +106 047051 051 045 005 00
172830 3626N 06950W 6969 03017 9882 +105 +105 047051 052 043 005 00
172900 3627N 06952W 6971 03023 9882 +110 +106 047051 051 043 004 00
172930 3628N 06954W 6967 03026 9886 +110 +106 047051 051 043 003 00
173000 3629N 06955W 6968 03030 9896 +104 +104 047048 049 044 004 00
173030 3631N 06957W 6970 03031 9903 +100 +100 049050 052 044 006 00
173100 3632N 06958W 6973 03033 9908 +097 +097 049053 055 044 007 01
173130 3633N 07000W 6970 03041 9916 +099 +099 046055 056 044 007 00
173200 3634N 07001W 6974 03038 9929 +091 +091 040056 057 045 009 01
173230 3635N 07003W 6964 03053 9926 +099 +096 042056 056 044 008 00
173300 3637N 07004W 6972 03046 9921 +104 +093 043058 059 043 006 00
173330 3638N 07006W 6969 03057 9926 +105 +092 044054 056 043 003 00
173400 3639N 07007W 6969 03056 9929 +104 +100 043053 055 042 002 00
173430 3640N 07009W 6974 03055 9935 +102 +098 041051 052 041 002 00
$$
;

[mpic]

For those interested, a web cam in Halifax. Skies are already overcast.

http://www.halifaxwebcam.ca/live/

Digby

http://www.novascotiawebcams.ca/~digbyharbour/

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT12 KNHC 221737
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL032009
A. 22/17:10:20Z
B. 35 deg 42 min N
068 deg 56 min W
C. 700 mb 2781 m
D. 64 kt
E. 142 deg 40 nm
F. 234 deg 83 kt
G. 144 deg 47 nm
H. 964 mb
I. 11 C / 3046 m
J. 16 C / 3044 m
K. 13 C / NA
L. OPEN SE
M. C60
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF303 1203A BILL OB 09
MAX FL WIND 83 KT SE QUAD 16:57:00Z
;

Talk about a huge eye!

[HURAKAN]

[HurricaneBelle]

Bill's outer bands have already reached Nantucket:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/radar.php ... 11&loop=no

[CrazyC83]

000
UZNT13 KNHC 221727
XXAA 72177 99357 70690 11559 99964 25800 01003 00828 ///// /////
92363 24400 31003 85105 22010 01508 70781 16212 02012 88999 77999
31313 09608 81711
61616 AF303 1203A BILL OB 10
62626 EYE SPL 3574N06898W 1714 MBL WND 35004 AEV 20801 DLM WND 01
005 963697 WL150 00505 086 REL 3574N06898W 171106 SPG 3573N06898W
171449 =
XXBB 72178 99357 70690 11559 00964 25800 11850 22010 22713 15812
33702 17012 44697 15012
21212 00964 01003 11957 35006 22939 02002 33850 01508 44729 22001
55697 02013
31313 09608 81711
61616 AF303 1203A BILL OB 10
62626 EYE SPL 3574N06898W 1714 MBL WND 35004 AEV 20801 DLM WND 01
005 963697 WL150 00505 086 REL 3574N06898W 171106 SPG 3573N06898W
171449 =

Dropsonde in eye: 964mb

[jinftl]

Looks for like fog in some of those webcams....the latest satellite shows the cloud canopy hasn't quite gotten to nova scotia yet...although it has reached Cape Cod.

For those interested, a web cam in Halifax. Skies are already overcast.

http://www.halifaxwebcam.ca/live/

Digby

http://www.novascotiawebcams.ca/~digbyharbour/

[drezee]

Not sure if anyone cares but Bill is at 68.93 W...west of the forecast and still fading W of due N for some reason...

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.1N 68.6W AT 22/1500Z

Recon just plotted 35 deg 42 min N 068 deg 56 min W
last pass was
B. 32 deg 11 min N 068 deg 10 min W

yields
Distance between

N Latitude 35 42 0.00, W Longitude 68 56 0.00 (Point 1)

and N Latitude 32 11 0.00, W Longitude 68 10 0.00 (Point 2)
397.322 kilometers; 246.884 miles

Azimuth from point 2 to point 1 = 349.96°

[Thunder44]

Not sure if anyone cares but Bill is at 68.93 W...west of the forecast and still fading W of due N for some reason...

Also, flight level winds seem much weaker so far. Don't be suprised this storm downgraded to Cat 1 later today.

[HURAKAN]

[cjrciadt]

It actually looks a lot like Isabel at landfall right now.

If this makes a landfall near Lunenburg, it will surely be worse than Juan even if slightly weaker. The IKE is 83 and the Destruction Potential on surge/waves is 4.6 right now. (It was never calculated with Juan, but I am guessing that it was around 2.5 given its much smaller size)

ftp://ftp.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/pub/hwind/2 ... tour04.png

Thank you for that, I wish the DP was used most often by the media instead of just the Wind Category always saying is has goten weaker etc.

[HURAKAN]

170
WTNT33 KNHC 221744
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE BILL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 29A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
200 PM AST SAT AUG 22 2009

...HURRICANE BILL MOVING NORTHWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR NOVA SCOTIA FROM
CHARLESVILLE IN SHELBURNE COUNTY EASTWARD TO ECUM SECUM IN HALIFAX
COUNTY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24
HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM JUST EAST OF ECUM SECUM TO POINT
ACONI. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF POINT ACONI
WESTWARD TO TIDNISH AND FROM VICTORIA IN QUEEN COUNTY NORTHWARD TO
LOWER DARNLEY IN PRINCE COUNTY...PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND...AND AROUND
THE WESTERN PORTION OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM FORT LAWRENCE IN CUMBERLAND
COUNTY TO CHARLESVILLE. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN
ISSUED FOR FROM PARSONS POND AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF
NEWFOUNDLAND TO ARNOLDS COVE. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF MASSACHUSETTS
FROM WOODS HOLE TO SAGAMORE BEACH...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF
MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET.

AT 2 PM AST...1800 UTC..THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BERMUDA HAS
BEEN DISCONTINUED.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND AND IN THE
REMAINDER OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
BILL.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 36.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.8 WEST OR ABOUT 370 MILES...
595 KM...SOUTH OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS.

BILL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 23 MPH...37 KM/HR AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF
HURRICANE BILL SHOULD PASS OFFSHORE THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND LATE
TODAY OR TONIGHT AND APPROACH NOVA SCOTIA ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. BILL IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE TODAY BUT A
GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE CENTER OF
BILL MOVES NORTH OF THE GULF STREAM.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275
MILES...445 KM.

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 964 MB...28.47 INCHES.

TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 7 INCHES ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE TRACK OF BILL ACROSS NOVA
SCOTIA...PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND AND NEWFOUNDLAND. 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
RAIN IS EXPECTED OVER NANTUCKET ISLAND AND BERMUDA...AN NEAR 1 INCH
OVER OUTER CAPE COD AND MARTHAS VINEYARD.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY HURRICANE BILL ARE STILL AFFECTING THE
BAHAMAS AND BERMUDA...AND THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES.
LARGE SWELLS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE U.S.
EAST COAST AND THE ATLANTIC MARITIMES OF CANADA LATER TODAY AND
SUNDAY. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SURF AND
LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS.

...SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...36.0N 68.8W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 23 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 221744
AF303 1203A BILL HDOB 30 20090822
173500 3641N 07010W 6970 03059 9943 +098 +098 041051 052 042 003 00
173530 3642N 07012W 6971 03062 9947 +096 +096 043051 052 041 005 00
173600 3644N 07013W 6969 03071 9955 +093 +093 043049 050 042 009 00
173630 3645N 07015W 6970 03068 9959 +091 +091 042049 049 041 011 00
173700 3646N 07016W 6970 03073 9959 +094 +094 043048 048 041 009 00
173730 3647N 07018W 6969 03073 9957 +097 +090 045047 047 040 006 00
173800 3648N 07019W 6970 03077 9958 +100 +078 047047 047 040 004 00
173830 3650N 07021W 6969 03081 9963 +100 +075 047047 047 038 004 00
173900 3651N 07022W 6971 03080 9967 +100 +083 048044 045 040 003 00
173930 3652N 07024W 6970 03085 9971 +098 +082 048046 046 040 002 00
174000 3653N 07025W 6970 03083 9974 +097 +079 049046 046 039 002 00
174030 3655N 07027W 6973 03085 9976 +098 +070 050045 045 038 002 00
174100 3656N 07029W 6970 03089 9976 +098 +063 051046 046 036 001 00
174130 3657N 07030W 6969 03092 9980 +098 +062 050044 045 036 001 00
174200 3658N 07032W 6969 03098 9988 +093 +065 050043 044 037 001 00
174230 3659N 07033W 6971 03097 9985 +098 +066 048044 045 038 000 00
174300 3701N 07035W 6967 03101 9994 +092 +072 046045 045 038 001 00
174330 3702N 07037W 6973 03095 9996 +093 +075 047040 042 037 000 00
174400 3703N 07038W 6971 03102 9996 +093 +065 047040 041 035 000 00
174430 3704N 07040W 6969 03103 9994 +096 +063 050040 040 036 000 00
$$
;

Feel free to take over again.