ATL: TROPICAL STORM BILL (03L)

[HURAKAN]

Until next time

[cycloneye]

280
WTNT33 KNHC 222033
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE BILL ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
500 PM AST SAT AUG 22 2009

...BILL EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST EARLY SUNDAY...

AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...ENVIRONMENT CANADA HAS EXTENDED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM ECUM SECUM TO POINT ACONI AND HAS
EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR NEWFOUNDLAND FROM ARNOLDS COVE
NORTHWARD TO HARBOUR DEEP. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM CHARLESVILLE TO POINT
ACONI. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM ECUM SECUM TO POINT
ACONI.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF POINT ACONI
WESTWARD TO TIDNISH AND FROM VICTORIA IN QUEEN COUNTY NORTHWARD TO
LOWER DARNLEY IN PRINCE COUNTY...PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND...AND FOR THE
WESTERN PORTION OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM PORT LAWRENCE TO CHARLESVILLE.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FROM PARSONS POND AROUND
THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF NEWFOUNDLAND TO HARBOUR DEEP.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF MASSACHUSETTS
FROM WOODS HOLE TO SAGAMORE BEACH...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF
MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND AND IN THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF BILL.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 37.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.8 WEST OR ABOUT 300 MILES...
480 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS AND ABOUT 585
MILES...940 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA.

BILL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 24 MPH...39 KM/HR. THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF
HURRICANE BILL SHOULD PASS OFFSHORE THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND LATE
TODAY OR TONIGHT AND MOVE OVER OR NEAR NOVA SCOTIA ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH...140
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. BILL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON SUNDAY AS
BILL MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275
MILES...445 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 961 MB...28.38 INCHES.

TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 7 INCHES ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE TRACK OF BILL ACROSS NOVA
SCOTIA...PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND AND NEWFOUNDLAND. 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
RAIN ARE EXPECTED OVER NANTUCKET ISLAND...AND NEAR 1 INCH OVER OUTER
CAPE COD AND MARTHAS VINEYARD.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY HURRICANE BILL ARE STILL AFFECTING THE
BAHAMAS AND BERMUDA BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH. THE LARGE SWELLS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE U.S. EAST COAST AND THE
ATLANTIC MARITIMES OF CANADA TODAY AND SUNDAY. THESE SWELLS WILL
LIKELY CAUSE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SURF AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP
CURRENTS.

...SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...37.1N 68.8W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 24 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

000
WTNT43 KNHC 222034
TCDAT3
HURRICANE BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER 30
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
500 PM AST SAT AUG 22 2009

AN AIR FORCE PLANE JUST PENETRATED AND SURVEYED HURRICANE BILL AND
ALTHOUGH IT MEASURED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 961 MB...THE
SURFACE WINDS REPORTED BY THE PLANE HAVE DECREASED...AND THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 75 KNOTS. THIS INTENSITY IS ALSO
SUPPORTED BY T-NUMBERS WHICH HAVE BEEN BETWEEN 4.0 AND 5.0 ON THE
DVORAK SCALE. BILL IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITS STRENGTH FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BUT WITH COLD WATERS AHEAD...A GRADUAL WEAKENING
SHOULD BEGIN TONIGHT. BILL SHOULD BE FULLY EXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT
48 HOURS AFTER THE CENTER PASSES NEAR OR OVER NEWFOUNDLAND.

THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN TRACK. BILL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT ABOUT 21 KNOTS. THE HURRICANE IS
ALREADY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW BETWEEN THE AZORES-BERMUDA HIGH
AND A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS
PATTERN SHOULD FORCE BILL TO TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST TONIGHT
WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO BE TIGHTLY PACKED...RESULTING IN HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK
FORECAST. THE FORECAST TRACK BRINGS BILL TO THE WATERS JUST SOUTH
OF NOVA SCOTIA IN 24 HOURS AND VERY NEAR OR OVER NEWFOUNDLAND
BETWEEN 24 AND 36 HOURS AS A WEAKENING CYCLONE.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY BILL ARE STILL AFFECTING THE EAST COAST OF
THE UNITED STATES. THESE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...CAUSING EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SURF AND
LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS. PLEASE CONSULT STATEMENTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE AND METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES FOR MORE
DETAILS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 22/2100Z 37.1N 68.8W 75 KT
12HR VT 23/0600Z 40.2N 67.6W 75 KT
24HR VT 23/1800Z 44.2N 63.2W 65 KT
36HR VT 24/0600Z 48.0N 54.5W 45 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 24/1800Z 50.0N 43.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 25/1800Z 52.0N 20.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 26/1800Z 57.0N 7.0W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 27/1800Z 64.0N 2.5W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[CrazyC83]

The RMW has increased greatly though which explains the weak winds despite the low pressure.

[CrazyC83]

I'd be worried that with the weakening to Cat 1, some people up there will let their guard down. The IKE and HDP are still greater than they were with Juan, due to the lower pressure and much larger size.

[KWT]

Yep and a bigger storm will obviously mean the highest winds will be spread out over a bigger region, so even with areas that are fairly far away from the center could get winds up close to hurricane force, in gusts at least.

[wxman57]

I'd be worried that with the weakening to Cat 1, some people up there will let their guard down. The IKE and HDP are still greater than they were with Juan, due to the lower pressure and much larger size.

Ike's big killer/damage producer was its surge, not its winds. Fortunately, Nova Scotia is not very surge-prone due to the deep water just offshore. And from what my neighbor tells me (he's in Halifax right now), the coast is now low and flat like the Gulf coast. So little inland penetration of any surge.

I suspect Halifax will see some 50-60 mph winds with gusts around 75-90 mph.

[Just Joshing You]

Im not worried what so ever. BRING IT ON lol.

[brunota2003]

I think they were looking for that warm core, that's why they circled around inside the eye...seeing if it was warmer anywhere inside than out.

[KWT]

The other thing to remember is unlike the Gulf regions Nova Scotia is somewhat used to big wind storms rolling through, so whilst this will still be somewhat stronger then most, I'd imagine they are quite prepared for a system at this ones strength...Juan was another matter as very few normal winter lows get as powerful as that hurricane.

[wxman57]

The other thing to remember is unlike the Gulf regions Nova Scotia is somewhat used to big wind storms rolling through, so whilst this will still be somewhat stronger then most, I'd imagine they are quite prepared for a system at this ones strength...Juan was another matter as very few normal winter lows get as powerful as that hurricane.

While that's true, the big wind storms typically hit when there are no leaves on the trees. The trees will be much more susceptible to damage now.

[Sanibel]

Looks like it just got a good kick right by the approaching front. This is impressive now that it is in perspective with the populous NE coast. You can see only a slightly different track could have sent a fairly decent hurricane into the New York area or even Cape Cod. Later tonight it should hit lower SST's.

[Brent]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE BILL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 30A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
800 PM AST SAT AUG 22 2009

...BILL MOVING NORTHWARD...EXPECTED TO PASS OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF
NOVA SCOTIA FROM CHARLESVILLE TO POINT ACONI. A HURRICANE WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM ECUM SECUM
TO POINT ACONI.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF
MASSACHUSETTS FROM WOODS HOLE TO SAGAMORE BEACH...INCLUDING THE
ISLANDS OF MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF
NOVA SCOTIA FROM NORTH OF POINT ACONI WESTWARD TO TIDNISH...FOR THE
WESTERN COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM FORT LAWRENCE TO CHARLESVILLE...
AND FOR PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND FROM VICTORIA IN QUEEN COUNTY
NORTHWARD TO LOWER DARNLEY IN PRINCE COUNTY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
IS ALSO IN EFFECT FROM PARSONS POND AROUND THE WESTERN...
SOUTHERN...AND EASTERN COASTS OF NEWFOUNDLAND TO HARBOUR DEEP.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND AND IN THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF BILL.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 37.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.3 WEST OR ABOUT 255
MILES...415 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS AND
ABOUT 550 MILES...880 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA.

BILL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 24 MPH...39 KM/HR. THIS MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF
HURRICANE BILL SHOULD PASS OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT...MOVE OVER OR NEAR NOVA SCOTIA ON SUNDAY...AND BE NEAR
NEWFOUNDLAND SUNDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. BILL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON SUNDAY AS BILL MOVES OVER
COOLER WATERS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
275 MILES...445 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 961 MB...28.38 INCHES.

TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 7 INCHES ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE TRACK OF BILL ACROSS NOVA
SCOTIA...PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND AND NEWFOUNDLAND. 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
RAIN ARE EXPECTED OVER NANTUCKET ISLAND...WITH AROUND 1 INCH
EXPECTED OVER OUTER CAPE COD AND MARTHAS VINEYARD.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY HURRICANE BILL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
MUCH OF THE U.S. EAST COAST AND SPREAD INTO THE ATLANTIC MARITIMES
OF CANADA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE
EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SURF AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS. SWELLS
FROM BILL ARE STILL AFFECTING THE BAHAMAS AND BERMUDA BUT SHOULD
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT.

...SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...37.8N 68.3W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 24 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[jinftl]

SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN
ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE
OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA
AT 3:17 PM ADT SATURDAY 22 AUGUST 2009

==DISCUSSION==
THE CENTRE OF HURRICANE BILL IS FORECAST TO PASS CLOSE TO NOVA SCOTIA
ON SUNDAY. GALE FORCE WINDS OF 65 KM/H ARE EXPECTED TO EXTEND MORE
THAN 300 KILOMETRES WEST OF THE PATH OF THE HURRICANE AND THESE WINDS
ARE NOW EXPECTED TO REACH THE ENTIRE ATLANTIC COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. DEPENDING ON THE PROXIMITY OF HURRICANE BILL TO THE COAST GUSTS OF
100 KM/H ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. ACCORDINGLY A
HURRICANE WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERNMOST REGIONS SPECIFIED.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

END/BOWYER-ROUSSEL

[Thunder44]

It looks like Bill may have already begun it's turn NNE.

[brunota2003]

it actually looks like it has started heading close to NE, but could be a wobble. Isn't it funny that this turn occurred right as it crossed into the southern edge of the Gulf Stream?

[Category 5]

Live feed from the Avalon fishing pier in South Jersey.

http://www.avalonpier.com/piercam.html

[jinftl]

In reality what has been steering Bill and is causing him to move north and eventually ne is the large trough to his west. The turn may have happened as he was crossing into the Gulf Stream, but not sure there is a cause-effect connection.

it actually looks like it has started heading close to NE, but could be a wobble. Isn't it funny that this turn occurred right as it crossed into the southern edge of the Gulf Stream?

[brunota2003]

In reality what has been steering Bill and is causing him to move north and eventually ne is the large trough to his west. The turn may have happened as he was crossing into the Gulf Stream, but not sure there is a cause-effect connection.

it actually looks like it has started heading close to NE, but could be a wobble. Isn't it funny that this turn occurred right as it crossed into the southern edge of the Gulf Stream?

I'm actually curious about the effects the GS may have on steering, at the very least slightly. It's like a sink full of water...stir the top (or bottom) long enough and eventually the whole thing will start spinning...the GS is constantly flowing and the water there is warmer (thus making the air above it warmer as well than surrounding air). So could the constant flow pull the air along with it at the very surface, if only slightly?

Granted, it wouldn't do much at the surface, especially since most storms are deep.

[jinftl]

Winds beginning to increase on Nantucket....gusts up to 28 mph, pressure is steadily falling as well.
(data from Cisco Beach, Nantucket)

[kat61]

wow! so quiet out here! anyone know when the turn NNE is supposed to happen? Bill seems to
moving pretty quickly.