Global model runs discussion

[KWT]

From someone over at easternuswx forums, one of the best websites for this sort of stuff out there IMO:

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/ukmet.html

[gatorcane]

From someone over at easternuswx forums, one of the best websites for this sort of stuff out there IMO:

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/ukmet.html

That's a great link. I have bookmarked it, thanks!

[gatorcane]

The 12Z and 00Z ECMWF are showing some kind of low approaching the Bahamas from the SE then curving Northward.....this is at around the same time the CMC is showing something.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 12!!!step/

[KWT]

Pretty much every model is developing something in this region so I think this is something to really watch. I'm not sure exactly where it comes from though the 850hpa vort charts seem to suggest the ITCZ around 50W...could be the wave we are watching I suppose but its hard to tell!

[jinftl]

Latest model runs...CMC and NAM show something possibly forming north of hispanola and puerto rico/in the se bahamas by mid-week

[Scorpion]

CMC is pretty interesting. We'll have to see if its not just another phantom storm.

[Blown Away]

That CMC/NAM track has to be our wave SW of CV islands. I think the only way SFL gets impacted from a storm this season is from a homegrown system that develops W of 60 degrees. The Bermuda High is just to weak this year to allow a CV storm to track to SFL.

[KWT]

CMC is pretty interesting. We'll have to see if its not just another phantom storm.

Well every model is developing it, its just the placement that is uncertain, some models are further south-west then others, but they all are developing it to some extent.

By the way I'm not so sure it is that wave blown away, its really hard to tell to be honest but it maybe a feature to the west of that feature as the GFS at least orginates it around 50W it seems which is too far west.

[Dean4Storms]

Something to watch for sure. It looks to me that it is the wave we have been following SW of the CVI's for a couple days now.

[Derek Ortt]

every model is not developing the system

CMC is developing something ahead of the GFS. In addition, the 18Z GFS does not even have a depression, while the 12Z had a hurricane

[KWT]

Derek I was talking about the system quite a few models try to develop in Bahamas, the models don't really do much with it but all do develop it to some extent with the GFS and the UKMO being the least showing just a sharp wave.

[cycloneye]

Interesting that the 00z model package had more models showing something near the Bahamas or off the SE U.S. coast as the ECMWF,NOGAPS,CMC and UKMET has.

00z ECMWF

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 00!!!step/

00z CMC

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

00z NOGAPS

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ngptc2.c ... =Animation

00z UKMET

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... tLoop.html

[Emmett_Brown]

Interesting that the 00z model package had more models showing something near the Bahamas or off the SE U.S. coast as the ECMWF,NOGAPS,CMC and UKMET has.

00z ECMWF

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 00!!!step/

00z CMC

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

00z NOGAPS

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ngptc2.c ... =Animation

00z UKMET

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... tLoop.html

That ECMWF run shows another trough in the E CONUS by Friday, so any developing system approaching the SE US this week would likely be recurved prior to reaching the coast. Those troughs certainly are persistent this year!

[Blown Away]

Looks like EC trough keeping any system away from SFL in the near future.

[jinftl]

Those same troughs could be anything but our friends later in the season when wilma-type tracks are the result of troughs dragging up systems from the w caribbean over us

Looks like EC trough keeping any system away from SFL in the near future.

[gatorcane]

snippet from NWS Miami on the impressive troughiness:

000
FXUS62 KMFL 231347
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
947 AM EDT SUN AUG 23 2009

.UPDATE...A COLD FRONT LIES BETWEEN JAX AND DAB...EXTENDING SW TO
JUST NORTH OF TAMPA...IMPRESSIVE FOR AUGUST! DEWPOINTS BEHIND THE
FRONT ARE IN THE LOWER 60S WHILE SOUTH OF THE FRONT DEWPOINTS
REMAIN WELL INTO THE 70S. THIS FRONT WILL STALL TODAY REMAINING
WELL NORTH OF THE SERVICE AREA.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

Looking at the long-range ECMWF, looks like it is showing hints of the east coast troughiness pulling out after 240 hours. I'm thinking we can see a long-wave pattern reversal for some of September with some more Western Atlantic ridging. If that happened, it wouldn't be the first time, the first couple weeks of September are known for strong Bermuda Highs allowing systems to move west, looking back at climatology.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 9082300!!/

[Sanibel]

Clear air here. The "feel" here seems negative for tropical development.

[jinftl]

Crisp over here in southeast florida this morning too....'nip' in the air...current dewpt in Miami is 77 deg...giving a 10 am heat index of only 96 deg. It did drop to 79 deg last night, though, in Miami. Open the windows weather!!! (Virginia Key off of Miami has a dewpt of 81 right now).

Clear air here. The "feel" here seems negative for tropical development.

[Frank2]

Haw - that explains why everyone looked pooped on the bicycle ride this morning - even I cut it short since it was a real steam bath out there (not surprised at the 81 DP - my guess was 80)...

Guess I'll keep watching "Ice Road Truckers" to stay cool - it could always be -41F as it was in last night's episode (too hot or too cold = no good)...

Frank

[psyclone]

current dewpoint is 57 in Tallahassee, 64 in Ocala and 76 in Tampa. I doubt the dry air makes much more progress south but its worth noting that parts of the tallahassee CWA are under a fire weather watch... very aberrant for late August. As for the tropics, i agree with those who say look south not east for threats as this troughy pattern has persisted all summer.