New large wave behind Bill east of Lesser Antilles

[jinftl]

Latest model run (18z) again shows a low tracking system.....not forming until the end of the upcoming week....maybe we are seeing the beginning of consistency between consecutive model runs....this run shows a system hugging 10N at least until 50W.

The negative MJO hand is on the ITCZ right now.

Funny you should say that but actually we still are in a fairly favorable MJO phase, the models a few days ago appear to have been much too agressive, yesterdays models for example showed us staying in a weak positive mode till at least the 10th of September then slowly negative conditions take over...but you can't blame the MJO on this one!

jinftl, the 06z is the only run I've seen from the GFS in the last few days to have anything that low, most runs have had that feature north of 15N before 40W and ready to recurve. Will be interesting to see what happens though and whether its a trend the GFS continues.

[Sanibel]

All eyes to GFS.

[Aric Dunn]

I have not read anything for the last couple days on here for this .. but the shear over the wave is going to help with fire convection especially tomorrow as the wave approached the shear axis. after that if a surface feature develops the tutt that is now starting to accelerate westward may eventually get far enough away to allow a better environment for something to get going ..

[DreamworksSKG]

IF one of these waves coming off Africa develops around the Bahamas - and a bit further west (i.e.) not so close to Africa--would there be more of a shot of an east coast run storm?

I have heard the ones that develop closer to africa tend to recurve.

[HURAKAN]

Elsewhere in the tropics
There are no threat areas in the Atlantic worth mentioning today. Most of the models are calling for the possible development of a tropical cyclone in the waters between the Bahamas and North Carolina on Wednesday or Thursday. There could be two triggers for tropical cyclone formation--the remains of the cold front that pushed off the U.S. East Coast this morning, plus a tropical wave that is currently approaching the northern Lesser Antilles Islands. We will also need to watch the region off the coast of Africa this week.

Jeff Masters

[HURAKAN]

Not a good scenario to have a High pressure over the East Coast

[gatorcane]

CMC still liking this area for development and showing a recurve east of Florida and the US.

The 06Z GFS shows a system maybe impacting the Carolinas but shows it weak at this time...

00Z ECMWF shows development also --- recurve away from US, maybe impacting Halifax in Novia Scotia again.

definitely good to start this thread as some kind of low pressure looks like it will develop. Will Novia Scotia be the hurricane magnet this year I wonder?!?!?

[HURAKAN]

This area already getting some consideration

[vbhoutex]

IF one of these waves coming off Africa develops around the Bahamas - and a bit further west (i.e.) not so close to Africa--would there be more of a shot of an east coast run storm?

I have heard the ones that develop closer to africa tend to recurve.

Because the TC's that develop closer to Africa have a larger expanse of water to cross, they also have a better chance of feeling any weakness in the Bermuda and Azores highs and heading to that weakness and out to sea as opposed to continuing a more Westerly track. Anything that might develop "closer to home" has less of a chance of finding those weaknesses and therefore may have a better chance at an "east coast run". However, with the current troughiness along the Eastern Seaboard fish storms are a better bet than landfalling storms if one is talking about the Atlantic. Remember that it only takes one to defy this and make things miserable for someone somewhere.

[Frank2]

I'll stick with my "10 day" guess back on Friday, since the large (and I mean large) ULL in the Central Atlantic is preventing any wave from developing ATTM - that and the negative MJO is good news for now...

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

Thankfully...

Frank

[jinftl]

And don't forget....not all hurricanes form to the east of the u.s....esp later in the season, we need to look to our south as well (i.e., mitch, irene, wilma)

IF one of these waves coming off Africa develops around the Bahamas - and a bit further west (i.e.) not so close to Africa--would there be more of a shot of an east coast run storm?

I have heard the ones that develop closer to africa tend to recurve.

Because the TC's that develop closer to Africa have a larger expanse of water to cross, they also have a better chance of feeling any weakness in the Bermuda and Azores highs and heading to that weakness and out to sea as opposed to continuing a more Westerly track. Anything that might develop "closer to home" has less of a chance of finding those weaknesses and therefore may have a better chance at an "east coast run". However, with the current troughiness along the Eastern Seaboard fish storms are a better bet than landfalling storms if one is talking about the Atlantic. Remember that it only takes one to defy this and make things miserable for someone somewhere.

[HURAKAN]

If it doesn't develop, it wasn't because the models didn't want!!!

[Derek Ortt]

this isnt the lead pipe cinch though that Bill was

if it develops, depends where and how the trough is

[srainhoutx]

And don't forget....not all hurricanes form to the east of the u.s....esp later in the season, we need to look to our south as well (i.e., mitch, irene, wilma)

Let's not forget Carla (1961) and Celia (1970).

[KWT]

Frank, as I said before there is NO negative MJO signal, its still currently in a favorable phase over the Atlantic. The models are shifting about in that respect but its certainly not a negative feature at the moment thats for sure.

[cycloneye]

12z CMC still develops it and tracks towards Carolinas.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[BigA]

this isnt the lead pipe cinch though that Bill was

if it develops, depends where and how the trough is

Derek, do you mean the lack of a "lead pipe cinch" for development, or recurvature if development occurs? Thank you.

[KWT]

Yeah this one seems to be dependant on the troughs digging down and being positive enough to recurve it, which seems to be hard to tell given its looking increasingly possible the first feature won't get the job done.

Hard to call to be honest, the whole set-up is somewhat confusing to me!

[Derek Ortt]

Bill was a shoe-in to develop

this one really only has CMC support (the other models show more of a broad area of low-pressure or a sharp wave, not a tropical cyclone)

[KWT]

Yeah Derek this one is rather uncertain, though the GFS does briefly have a closed low, as did the 0z ECM. I suspect the models don't have a very good grasp on this system yet, since there really isn't a lot to really go on just yet.